Madness Winter Outlook
Monday, October 01, 2007
WINTER 2007-2008 OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 15 TO MARCH 15... SOUTHEAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM... STORM TRACK IS THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... COLD HIGH COMES DOWN AND COULD LEAD TO ICE STORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. VERY COLD WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HEAVY SNOWS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...
Well, here it is, my best guess for the winter season. I define the winter season as the period from November 15 to March 15th, so what you see on the maps are the departures from normals for that time period. Now, please don't ask me how much snow will fall in your backyard because I just don't know the answer to every spot location.
I justified my forecast based on the strong Southeast ridge, the development of the La Nina and years where the SOI values have followed the same trends. I think overall, we will see the trough axis over the High Plains and a ridge over the eastern part of the country. That will lead to a storm track that goes from the High Plains to the Great Lakes and perhaps even cutting across the Northeast. While we will get spells of very cold weather across the eastern part of the country, overall, it will be known as a mild winter. With the trough position over the High Plains, this will lead to arctic air spilling into the northern Rockies and spreading down the High Plains and into the Western states. I do think that cold highs will move across the Great Lakes and setting up a cold dome of air that will be overrun by warm air ahead of storms coming out of the southern Plains. That's why I places an area of ice across the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic. I am also concerned for snow and ice across New York into parts of New England where the zone between the cold air across eastern Canada clashes with the Southeast warm weather that tries to flex its muscles north every once in a while. The western mountains will get plenty of snow; however, the California Sierra may struggle at times to get heavy snows as the storm track stays across Oregon and Washington.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness Updated: 10/1/2007 11:27 AM
