if the signs continue I think we should be on ice by the Saturday after Thanksgiving. things I have noticed that indicate a early fall and winter are that the oak trees are dropping their acorns already, the nights are getting cooler and so are some of the days, the birds are starting flock up in large groups. if we are not on the ice by then I would say my second guess would be by mid December. I feel we are about 2 to 4 weeks ahead of where we should normally be for this time of the year.