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Here's my prediction............ we'll have ice when the water freezes! That will be when it's cold enough, without wind, for the water to harden............ and then it'll have to be close to 4" everywhere for me to venture out otherwise I like my other choices and will forgo the young (or the ignorant) mans ego of invincibility.
Make sure you wear your floaties.
8 degree low tomorrow night, only problem is my pond has 2" of ice and now 3+ inches of insulating snow, dam won't gain much ice that way