In these temps, what is the OFFICIAL CALCULATION FOR MAKING ICE ON LAKES

[flaggs]

There seems to be a lot of questions around safety of Ice with this cold snap.  here is a guid of what you can expect for making Ice on the lakes and ponds, with these awesome, low temperatures.
This (IMHO) is a great way to guage safety and thickness of ice for those of us who have not yet visited our favorite places  (mine being the lake I grew up on in littleton). I'm heading there this weekend... bring it on. This post is rather lengthy, nbut I found it to be really interesting!

"Once the first layer of ice catches on a lake it grows thicker at rate that is dependent, most obviously, on air temperature. A freezing-degree-day (FDD) is the average number of degrees below freezing over 24 hours. An ice sheet will, in theory, grow at a rate of roughly one inch per ten FDDs starting from ice between 1/2" and 4" thick.  This is based on there being a bit of wind, a reasonably clear sky and no snow/frost on the ice.  If there is no wind the ice will grow about half as fast.
 
For example, starting from 2" ice, if the maximum temperature yesterday was 32 degrees and the minimum overnight was 12 degrees the average is 22 deg giving 10 FDDs for the 24 hour period (assuming a typical day-night temperature profofile).  The ice should be about an inch thicker than yesterday.  As explained below there are a number of reasons why 'your results might vary'.  Even a  thin layer of snow or frost will dramitically slow the growth rate.  As always, check the ice itself to see what the ground truth is."

"For an ice sheet to grow thicker it has to dissipate 80 calories per gram of water that turns to ice. The heat has to get out of the ice sheet either by conduction into overlying air or by radiational cooling from the ice surface.  In general, when the ice is thinner than 3" the cooling rate is limited by the ability of the air over the ice to transmit heat.  This is particularly true at temperatures closer to freezing.  As it gets thicker than three inches the conductivity of the thicker ice becomes the biggest factor.
 
The following graphs are based on a formula proposed George Ashton in 1989.  It covers both thin and thick ice.  The 100+ year old Stephan solution works well with an adjustment coefficient of 0.5 to 0.8 for thicker ice or very cold conditions but dramatically overestimates the growth rate of thin ice and less severe temperatures. The Stephan solution does not factor in the heat transfer capacity of the air over the ice sheet but the Ashton formula does.  Neither directly factors in radiational cooling, solar heating, wind, snowcover and other factors that can affect ice growth rates however by using adjustment coefficients they approximate the effect of some of these factors.  The following charts show calculated growth rates for different periods of time.  This can be handy for making a rough guess of growth over time at a constant temperature.  As always, actual measurements of thickness trump estimated numbers."

So this week, If we use this calcuation, I suspect we are going to be on between 8 and 10" inches of ice, given what was already out there!  We'll see.... 
Flaggs!

[FishingNewEngland]

Nice!!!!

[BaitBucket]

Yup, time to bust out the gas auger.

[GrizlyGarou]

I went out without my spud yesterday! yay!!!!

[pikeking]

Thank you for posting this Roger, there is a fair amount of ice here in the Berks, I was on 8" last weekend and with the minimal snow cover it should be about a foot by now.

[macdaddyjb82]

I would agree with you Pike...... last year, we reached 12 inches of ice for one weekend and then it started to disappear rather quickly. 

[kivva king]

Roger, you got too much time on your hands,!! . Kk

[SteveinMA]

Great info Flaggs! Well done!

[flaggs]

Roger, you got too much time on your hands,!! . Kk

No... not really... If I had Too mcuh time, I'd be fishing!    In between pounding away at work, I get the 'ding' when fishing is calling!  For this site, I make time, -
cancel meetings if I'm in the middle of a post
Hang up the phone if I hear a 'ding'
excuse myself in hall way conversation if I hear a 'ding'
and the list goes on.... What did they/Do they call this?  Multitaskfishing?   

   Flaggs!

Remember:" Ice Shanty: The best place to go Ice Fishing, When you CAN'T go Ice Fishing! "

[tomcatoak]

think i have to get my gas auger fixed,  anyone know a jiffy service in or around brookfeild/sturbridge area.  Keep in mind quaboug sporting goods burned down

[shsalchemist]

Great post! Science do not lie ... Just deviates with variables thanks for the post.

[200fisher]

flaggs- Very informative... Thanks!

[GrizlyGarou]

Roger, you got too much time on your hands,!! . Kk

That's nothing. I know a guy that programmed those equations into a spreadsheet to predict how thick the ice will be...

[kivva king]

No... not really... If I had Too mcuh time, I'd be fishing!    In between pounding away at work, I get the 'ding' when fishing is calling!  For this site, I make time, -
cancel meetings if I'm in the middle of a post
Hang up the phone if I hear a 'ding'
excuse myself in hall way conversation if I hear a 'ding'
and the list goes on.... What did they/Do they call this?  Multitaskfishing?   

   Flaggs!

Remember:" Ice Shanty: The best place to go Ice Fishing, When you CAN'T go Ice Fishing! "

Ding, ding!!!  On another note, I got over 100 macs off the Drakes  island jetty the last 2 years! Starts on Memorial day weekend! You going to be around? I'll call you when I'm up there!    KK

[big scott]

so what your saying is.............if the temps are below freezing, ice will be made? ATV is ready! -2 right now in Athol.

[flaggs]

so what your saying is.............if the temps are below freezing, ice will be made? ATV is ready! -2 right now in Athol.

Now there's a stroke of brilliance!    you must have had your wheaties today 
Yes... of course, but we take it to the next level around here....the question is How Much Ice, not whether we are making it...

Sorry man.. could'nt resist 

Flaggs!

[big scott]

it's difficult to write sarcastically...... heat doesn't rise, it goes to cold.