In winter the warmest water is on the bottom. Turnover has to start, and eventually finish. The sweet water has to cool to 32 and below on top to freeze, with a still night for setup. Temps around and just below the 32 mark won't cut it. Lock-up will occur when the lake temps are right, small lakes first, big ones later if at all, as in Round Valley. When the lakes hit the right temp, and you get that 10 degree night with no wind and it stays cold, then the slippery season for walking on water will begin.
In the meantime read the posts, research, build that new and better sled, buy that special item that will make you a better more productive and skilled HARD-WATER-ADDICT.