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I was looking for some long range forecasts and ran across this, it puts an interesting spin on it !(Image removed from quote.)Winter 2011 long-range researchWe are now two years removed from a moderate El Nino.The winter forecast for 2011-2012 is again a “La Nina” weighted outlook. History tells us what most La Nina winters are like. But history also shows there are some La Nina winters that behave outside what is typical. Last winter was an extreme example where atmospheric blocking patterns –AO/-NAO overwhelmed the La Nina signal until late February and March when the typical La Nina pattern took over for the end of winter and the spring. Last year was a strong La Nina by most measures yet behaved unlike almost any strong La Nina winter in history (Black swan event).Last winter saw a +QBO, +IOD, strong basinwide La Nina/-PDO, +AMO. That basically screams torch, low solar point. This year preliminary indications point to a -QBO, weaker La nina vs 2010-11, neutral IOD, cooler AMO, and still -PDO. -QBO years with low sun action years in either ENSO mode. 1967/68 is fairly similar to this year, with the -PDO, second year La Nina, a weak solar cycle. Interesting matches are present with either state of QBO: 2010/11, 1967/68, 1917/18, and 1903/04 all fit the profile, so do 2008/09 and 1974/75.Pacific Ocean temperatures returned to neutral during the spring and summer, but renewed cooling has been in evidence in recent months, and modeling indicates neutral to weak La Nina conditions for the fall and winter. In fact the 8 September CPC ENSO diagnostic bulletin stated: “La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, a LA NINA Advisory is in effect. La Nina has been present in consecutive winters four times since the 1950s. Of those, two were stronger by NOAA’s criteria the second time, two were weaker, and in three of the four cases, there was a three-peat (three winters in a row with a La Nina).Usually El Nino and La Nina don't act on seasonal weather alone. Several other weather and/or climate factors also typically contribute to the overall climate of the Northern Hemisphere such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden-Julian Oscillation or variable atmospheric "blocking" (traffic jams in the upper-level atmospheric flow with varying life spans). The state of the Pacific Ocean, La Nina / El Nino can be a key factor for wintertime weather patterns in the United States and elsewhere, but there’s another one which is at least as if not more important, especially for the eastern and central states: the 'North Atlantic Oscillation,' or NAO. Its extremity the past two winters has overwhelmed other influences (a strong La Nina last winter and a strong El Nino the previous one) and helped lead to wild snowstorms and widespread below-average temperatures in patterns not usually seen with either ENSO condition.Any given year can be an exception, but historically a strong correlation exists between La Nina and below-average precipitation across the southern tier of the US during the fall and winter.La Niña appears to have staged a more rapid comeback than anticipated in August, although the overall likelihood of a 'double-dip' La Niña has always been higher than 50%, given big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. On the other hand, this month's return to weak La Niña conditions is not guaranteed to continue into the winter either: the La Niña winter of 1988-89 was followed by a brief interlude of ENSO-neutral conditions in early summer of 1989, then a brief return to La Niña in late summer, and back to ENSO-neutral during the subsequent boreal fall and winter. However, that is the only such case in the last six decades, so La Niña is more likely to continue into the fall than not and probably winter as well.IF we end up with a La Nina this winter that is as strong or stronger than last years, then a winter as bad or worse than last winter would be indicated East of the Missouri River mainly if it is accompanied by a -NAO. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS are for a weak to moderate La Nina and less –AO/-NAO leading to a less harsh version of last winter, closer to the climatologically mean of past La Nina winters. As always, the unpredictable AO/NAO can always modulate the LA Nina signal, but it can only be estimated in the long-range.The current rank of the MEI has dropped even more dramatically from 28th last month to 16th this month, back to weak La Niña rankings. The 2010-11 portion of this La Niña event had been classified as strong (top 6 rankings since 1950) from July-August 2010 through March-April 2011, tied with 1975-76 for 2nd place in terms of strong duration, and only behind 1955-56 (15 months). In the context of the rapid transition from El Niño into La Niña last year, this section features a comparison figure with strong La Niña events that all reached at least minus one standard deviations by June-July of the first year, and a peak of at least -1.4 sigma over the course of the event. It turns out that this selection covers exactly the same strong La Niña events that were introduced earlier (1949-51, 1954-56, 1964-65, 1970-72, 1973-76, and 1988-89), in addition to monitoring the currently unfolding event. The most recent moderate La Niña events of 1998-2001 and 2007-09 did not qualify, since they either did not reach the required peak anomaly (the first one) or became strong too late in the calendar year (both). The analog list used to predict the coming winter will take into account the low solar influence (there are multiple cycles 11-year, 22, 60-70, 102, 213 etc.), GAAM (global atmospheric angular momentum), stratospheric aerosols (past volcanic eruptions in relevant regions), best guesstimate of blocking or lack of blocking (AO/NAO), second year –ENSO history, Southern hemisphere antecedent winter, cryosphere conditions (snow and ice coverage) and all the usual teleconnection global indices such as PDO, AMO, QBO, PNA, etc. (some of which follow roughly 65 year pendulum swings)The final outcome of the hurricane season and behavior of fall weather will also be factored in at the end. The summer weather is factored looking for past matches to create an analog set. For example, the multi-year La Nina summers of 1954-1956 show a similar temperature pattern to summer 2011. Summers past where the AO/NAO were negative just like this June-August period yields 1958, 1963, 1977, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Low solar yields among others 1893, 1903, 1904, 1917, 1918. I’ve stated earlier that it’s interesting to note that in Atlanta cold winters have twice followed hot summers and we just had another hot summer. This leads to concern that another “abnormal” La Nina winter could be on the way; given the Southeast usually has a warm dry high-pressure ridge dominate in the DJF period during La Nina. The current early signals East of the Rockies (non computer model) point to high latitude atmospheric blocking which weighs toward a cooler than normal end of autumn after mid-fall mild conditions and to a front-loaded winter Dec.-Jan., with moderation in mid February trending to above-normal by March. Other analog years being considered for the coming winter are: 1962,1963,1964,1970,1971,1972,1976,1978,1990,1997,2001,2006,2007,2009,2010,1980,85,86,89,91,95,96,99,2000,2003,2007. Along with the previous ones mentioned. Remember the analog approach uses past years that are near matches to the current or expected pattern under the assumption that “what’s past is prologue”.This allows us to construct future maps of temperature and precipitation based on what has happened in past weather history on average. However, Mother Nature never gives straight clues so there is always noise. And of course no two seasons are every exactly the same and no two EL Nino or La Nina seasons are ever exactly the same. We can only come up with a best approximation. This summary provides deep background so the winter forecast released in November or early December can be more direct. La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode. La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. If it behaves like most La Nina episodes.
Sorry Tippin, my bad ! To sum all that up only takes 5 words, They Don't Have A Frikken Clue !!
This long term forecast brings some revolutionary new facts to the table, they predict that this winter it will be warm in Mexico and Central America and will be cool in Alaska and the Yukon.Great, who would have thought?
lmao brilliant!!!! on a side note are any of you guys going up to fish for the cure I am going to give it a try this year
where and when is that?
Quote :we need sustained cold with lows in the single #'s From now till March works for me !!
