Winter weather for cast..

[chilly-willy]

Wet forcast  for the great lakes states like michigan ,ohio ,Indiana, etc..



https://weather.com/news/climate/news/la-nina-noaa-forecast-october-2017

[rdhammah]

hope they're wrong. last winter was bad enough. don't want a worse one.

[chilly-willy]

Worst part is they been right 100% of the time this year..

[3300]

with a 100% accuracy, it says 55 -65% chance of a weal La Niņa.

A La Niņa watch remains in effect, according to the latest outlook from NOAA, with weak La Niņa conditions expected to develop by this winter.

NOAA indicates about a 55 to 65 percent chance of La Niņa conditions during the fall and upcoming winter.

[icebucketjohn]

Doesn't look too promising for a long, cold ice season.

[Agronomist_at_IA]

[IceAddict87]

Hope they are right

[pyro261]

What am I missing here?  A dip in the polar jet stream to the southern part of ohio means colder weather.  Wetter just means more snow, not rain or anything...  I realize more snow isn't ideal for ice, but doesn't hurt as bad as rain would

[Agronomist_at_IA]

What am I missing here?  A dip in the polar jet stream to the southern part of ohio means colder weather.  Wetter just means more snow, not rain or anything...  I realize more snow isn't ideal for ice, but doesn't hurt as bad as rain would

Actually its worse than rain. Rain will freeze to solid ice when it gets cold. Snow on early ice is bad because it will insulated the ice and keep it from making ice like it should. Possibly keeping it from being a safe thickness. The snow also adds weight on the ice without adding strength so less weight can be handled on the ice. Also it can cause slush pockets and uneven ice.

[rdhammah]

Actually its worse than rain. Rain will freeze to solid ice when it gets cold. Snow on early ice is bad because it will insulated the ice and keep it from making ice like it should. Possibly keeping it from being a safe thickness. The snow also adds weight on the ice without adding strength so less weight can be handled on the ice. Also it can cause slush pockets and uneven ice.

that's what happened last year here. This is Chilly's fault

[DR.SPECKLER]

ugh.. rain and snow has screwed the ice from forming in this area of Michigan for the last 4 years...steelhead fishing has been great those winters but I want to sit in my warm shack and watch the vexilar.not be in a cold boat on the river were I have to deal with cold wind,rain and snow.either or I guess I'm used to having a short or no icefishing season here in Allegan co.

[eriksat1]

Looking good for us in the northern midwest west of the Great Lakes. It seems to me the Great Lakes are a real cold killer, they hold a lot of heat energy in all that water.

[Raquettedacker]

Yup those big lakes are pretty warm this year so that means a lot of lake effect snow out this way this winter..........

[hardwater diehard]

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/glakes.html

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/glakes_tmap.html

[fishermantim]

No offense, but are you really willing to base your winter on a forecast that's made months in advance, from people that weren't able to predict the hurricane season we've had?

Sure, all the weather resources are great as a tool, but all you can forecast this far out is that the months and seasons WILL change.
Check back a month out to get a better idea of what "might" happen, and go from there.

Remember...meteorologi sts are one of a few who get paid even when they are completely wrong!
 

[DrCro]

Glad I live in Colorado than, it's been a odd october with a cold front and a decent mid 70's. I think it'll be a cold winter that will come earlier than usual. At least I hope.

[buuddy]

The weather pattern reversal starts in late October.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/typhoon-teleconnections-usa-north-america-pattern-weather-change-west-east-temperatures-late-october/87880/

[tomturkey]

No offense, but are you really willing to base your winter on a forecast that's made months in advance, from people that weren't able to predict the hurricane season we've had?

Sure, all the weather resources are great as a tool, but all you can forecast this far out is that the months and seasons WILL change.
Check back a month out to get a better idea of what "might" happen, and go from there.

Remember...meteorologi sts are one of a few who get paid even when they are completely wrong!

The weather guessers can not get their guess right a day in advance so why take any guess months in advance seriously. A couple of weeks ago we were supposed to get hit with up to 4 inches of rain in the central lower peninsula. I got around an inch and a half. They got as high as 7 inches of rain along the I-94 corridor in the southern part of the state. Way off on that guess just like it has been all summer.

[buuddy]

I just had a look at the new Accuweather forecast for December in my area and those numbers look amazing. Highs and lows are at the normal temperatures for the entire month. I know it is still a long way off but I'd rather see that they were showing those temperature than the warmer trend that was up earlier.

[eriksat1]

Sure they are guesses but a lot of what they go by are the jet stream wind patterns and they are rather predictable along with ocean water temps in the pacific.

[Agronomist_at_IA]

No offense, but are you really willing to base your winter on a forecast that's made months in advance, from people that weren't able to predict the hurricane season we've had?

Sure, all the weather resources are great as a tool, but all you can forecast this far out is that the months and seasons WILL change.
Check back a month out to get a better idea of what "might" happen, and go from there.

Remember...meteorologi sts are one of a few who get paid even when they are completely wrong!

It is actually easier for them to do a long term/ forecast out farther. Like La Niņa / El Niņo. Because certain things develop which do the cause and effect for a long period of time with typically slow changes that will set seasonal trends.

 When you talk about short term forecast, they go off of physical models which are different. If one thing slightly changes early in the model they can be way off.....The forecast that they show you or you actually see is what the odds favor......so you are correct........it all might happen or not.....however overall odds are what they are for short term stuff.

[WYIfish]

Our geology professor told me once that if we predict that the weather tomorrow will be what the weather is today, we would be right 75% of the time.  I go along with that and I am right, you guessed it, 3/4's of the time.  Tomorrow it will be cold and blustery with a wind chill about in the low 20's  How's that, I'll send you the bill.