I think 40 will work for you in this case. Knowing you could lose a monster fish due to not using steel. I would also suggest you look around at soem alternatives to just a steel leader.
Food for thought. Here is a post from 7 years ago on the subject. MeadowPikeman wrote this:
Re: Steel vs. Non Steel Leaders
« Reply #4 on: Oct 31, 2004, 12:34 AM » Reply with quote
after catching literally catching thousands of pike over many seasons i would say line or in this case leaders make little differece when it comes to catching pike. use black coated wire though rather than bright steel leaders(i also use 40lb black braid)picking good bait is more important than line , i use dead perch or tulibees, as this is the main diet of big pike in our area, but make sure you are using a bait that the pike usually feed on in that lake. it does make a differenence to match the food available. from my experience dead bait will beat out jigging especially for trophy fish. although the movement from checking bait on a tip up often brings a strike in the following minutes. a big key i've found is time of day. early morning can be good but overall for some reason tip ups always go nuts just as its getting dark, sometimes its pitch dark when the frenzy is over, my biggest "ice" pike was taken at sunset last year and was 25#. one more important factor is drilling holes drill holes and quit don't drill some, fish then maybe drill some more in the same area as this will spook big pike, may catch smaller ones after drilling but the big ones always come at least a couple hours after the tip ups are set and the drilling stops, if its warm return to an area and use old holes that you have drilled the day before and just chisel them out. typing about this is making me think about the upcoming season which should be a banner one. already started getting the tip ups ready and scouting for bait, should hit the ice for northerns in 3 weeks or so can't wait!
I think he is on the right tracks here!
Goodluck!
Ctown