Ice Growth Spreadsheet Year 2 - 2023 and 2024

[dickerson_jared]

It's back for another year, even if it hasn't inspired much confidence as of yet.
I understand that it isn't a perfect science but it is a fun exercise for me to track the temperature trends and give a rough idea when ice will form.
I will try to keep this post updated every Monday through the ice season.
For those of you that didn't follow along last year, I have developed a spreadsheet for rough early season ice growth that I've been using the last couple of seasons. The high and low temps are averaged from the monthly forecast from Wundergroun, Weather.com, and Accuweather. The spreadsheet works on the theory that it takes 15 freezing degrees in roughly 24 hours to make 1 inch of ice (a rough description of the Ashton Method of Ice Growth Prediction can be found here:http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/).
The Rightmost column represents theoretical inches of ice growth (or loss).
The Column for FD Week is a total of Freezing Degrees over the course of 7 days, Monday to Sunday.
The Column for Freezing Degrees is the average of the daily high and low subtracted from 32 degrees for each day.
A red date in the leftmost column is a day that has passed and the temps are recorded, a bold date is a forecasted date.
Please note that there is no way in the spreadsheet to factor in things that may inhibit ice growth (or loss) such as:
-Wind Strength
-Snow Cover
-Cloud Cover
-Radiational Cooling

[dickerson_jared]

This Chart is for this month. Forecast dates of Dec 18th through the 31st.
I will attempt to update this every Monday through the ice season with the exception of next Monday (Christmas).

[dickerson_jared]

Took a few days away from my desk for the Holiday so I didn't get an update in for the end of December.
This chart is a early look at the first couple weeks of January. The forecast is a little sloppy, Accuweather is calling for colder temps than Wunderground or the Weather Channel, and that puts more optimism in this chart than what I anticipated.

Update: Had to correct the year on the Chart.

[esoxnepa]

It seems crazy how warm our overnight lows have been this year.  I will have to wait and see what the winds on the back end of the next two storms do.  Hopefully the lakes cap and have a chance to build some ice.

[RuttNutt]

Lakes in Pike Co. were capped as of this morning..............w ith a fresh dusting of snow on them- unfortunately 6-10” of snow this weekend is gonna wreck it. 🙄

[pabassman]

Took a few days away from my desk for the Holiday so I didn't get an update in for the end of December.
This chart is a early look at the first couple weeks of January. The forecast is a little sloppy, Accuweather is calling for colder temps than Wunderground or the Weather Channel, and that puts more optimism in this chart than what I anticipated.

Update: Had to correct the year on the Chart.

 I like watching this sheet. What area are you getting the temp readings?

[dickerson_jared]

I enter Coudersport, PA into the weather service for the monthly forecast. I will make the note that for WeatherUnderground the Monthly forecast defaults to your nearest weather station. In that case it goes over to the Bradford Airport in McKean County.

[pabassman]

I enter Coudersport, PA into the weather service for the monthly forecast. I will make the note that for WeatherUnderground the Monthly forecast defaults to your nearest weather station. In that case it goes over to the Bradford Airport in McKean County.

 Thank you

[dickerson_jared]

1-8-24 Update.
Once we get through this week things seem to be looking up, with all 3 forecasts showing at at least a full week without temps above freezing. My guess is that somebody will be fishing somewhere in PA the weekend of the 20th.

[pabassman]

1-8-24 Update.
Once we get through this week things seem to be looking up, with all 3 forecasts showing at at least a full week without temps above freezing. My guess is that somebody will be fishing somewhere in PA the weekend of the 20th.

    Me....it will be me 

[RuttNutt]

    Me....it will be me 

I may have to take a “mental health” day during the week...............don’t think I can wait til the 20th! 

[RayJ]

I'm looking forward to seeing your prediction come true. Just wish it wasn't still 2 weeks away.

[Flyboyroy35]

The shad will be running inthe Roanoake in 6-7 weeks and we haven't drilled one hole in the ice yet.  Crazy year.

[dickerson_jared]

Update 1-16-24. Looks like winter for a change out there, this stretch of days below freezing should put safe ice out there somewhere in Northern PA. Please note that I have no way to factor for the insulating effect of the snow in this spreadsheet. If your favorite lake was locked up and now has 4 inches of powdery snow on it, assume that the growth rate in this chart is 1/2 or less. I plan on fishing next weekend, although it may be a short couple of day season with the warm and rain coming around the 23rd.

[RuttNutt]

I saw pics of guys fishing several different lakes in NEPA the last 2 days.................. ...... I'm hoping to take tomorrow off and be fishing on the ice somewhere! 

[Tuma]

This is a great table and interesting. Would you mind sharing the table so I can enter the info for my area. I will be going out this weekend. The itch needs to be scratched. Just wondering what the thickness of the ice might be before the spud bar hits it.

[OldandNumb]

Thanks for posting the spreadsheet. I used it last year and created one for two of the lakes I fish in the Poconos. Just need to get the day things cap over. Is that how you set your “zero” point? Or do you adjust based upon reports? Curious about that.

[dickerson_jared]

Thanks for posting the spreadsheet. I used it last year and created one for two of the lakes I fish in the Poconos. Just need to get the day things cap over. Is that how you set your “zero” point? Or do you adjust based upon reports? Curious about that.

I don’t set a day zero, the weekly count resets each Monday and the month is always from the first. I do however put reports in a column to the right to check my predictions against what I’m seeing on the ground.

[OldandNumb]

I don’t set a day zero, the weekly count resets each Monday and the month is always from the first. I do however put reports in a column to the right to check my predictions against what I’m seeing on the ground.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[dickerson_jared]

1-22-24 Update
Finally got some good ice but the snow covering on top of the fresh ice sheets definitely slowed down our growth. We can only hope that the snow cover pulls an uno reverse and protects the ice sheets from this warmup coming.
Chart for the rest of January.

Early outlook for February.

[dickerson_jared]

Forgot to update yesterday. Spreadsheet shows a look into February with a bit of growth on a few cold night that might get us back out for another weekend on the lakes that didn't loose their main ice sheet.

[pabassman]

1-22-24 Update
Finally got some good ice but the snow covering on top of the fresh ice sheets definitely slowed down our growth. We can only hope that the snow cover pulls an uno reverse and protects the ice sheets from this warmup coming.
Chart for the rest of January.

Early outlook for February.