Author Topic: Early 2013/14 winter prediction (Read 6690 times)

Chris338378 · « **on:** Aug 06, 2013, 02:33 AM »

I just found this long range weather forecast for this winter. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's happy to see this along with hoping and praying it turns out to be very accurate.

http://weatheradvance.com/2013/07/15/model-gudience-supports-winter-outlook/?noredirect=1#noredirect

bart · « **Reply #1 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 06:58 AM »

Mast crops are up too...

Buckshots · « **Reply #2 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 09:02 AM »

Last years predictions were pretty far off.. But it's still nice to see!

Rwolff · « **Reply #3 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 01:49 PM »

Looks good to me! I hope lol

masshills · « **Reply #4 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 03:56 PM »

LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

muskiewrangler · « **Reply #5 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 04:19 PM »

That would be perfect for this winter for me cuz I'm only taking only one course for the winter and it will make me the most happiest person on the ice for the whole winter!!!

Chris338378 · « **Reply #6 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 06:18 PM »

This site was pretty accurate for my neck of the woods the past two years so I'm hoping they continue to be accurate this year too. As for how accurate it was for other locations I can't say.

hardwater diehard · « **Reply #7 on:** Aug 06, 2013, 06:38 PM »

Most of the reports of last year called for average winter.... must say it was quite accurate for my neck of the woods even fished about a week longer then usual....hope this predicted forecast is accurate.

chez · « **Reply #8 on:** Aug 07, 2013, 07:50 AM »

I,ll pray for ice from mid DEC.till MARCH 31.

da man cave shack · « **Reply #9 on:** Aug 07, 2013, 08:19 AM »

I hope it's right. And I hope looking at this doesn't jinx us.

Chris338378 · « **Reply #10 on:** Aug 07, 2013, 06:47 PM »

I hope it doesn't jinx us also. Come on Chez, from Dec to March 31st? Really. My hope is from the second week of December until the third week of April.

staggerin · « **Reply #11 on:** Aug 07, 2013, 10:27 PM »

Bout time we get blessed with awesome ice in the north east lol. Brrrrring it on

Chris338378 · « **Reply #12 on:** Aug 14, 2013, 09:06 PM »

It's going down to 45 degrees at my house tonight and my ice fishing itch is really going into over drive.

tonstone · « **Reply #13 on:** Aug 14, 2013, 09:16 PM »

Put on long pants today and worked on a smitty, ice is right around the corner!!!

Chris338378 · « **Reply #14 on:** Aug 14, 2013, 10:43 PM »

Quote from: tonstone on Aug 14, 2013, 09:16 PM

Put on long pants today and worked on a smitty, ice is right around the corner!!!

I hope you're right.

WildOutdoorAddict · « **Reply #15 on:** Aug 16, 2013, 04:45 PM »

Would be nice to hit the ice before Christmas..it's been a few years for that around here.

Chris338378 · « **Reply #16 on:** Aug 19, 2013, 06:33 PM »

brittlab · « **Reply #17 on:** Aug 19, 2013, 07:12 PM »

Sounds good to me!

Chris338378 · « **Reply #18 on:** Aug 27, 2013, 02:26 AM »

I just saw the Farmer's Almanac and they are predicting a, "Bitterly cold and Snow filled" winter for us. Boy I sure hope it's accurate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2013/08/25/2014-us-winter-forecast/

rdhammah · « **Reply #19 on:** Aug 27, 2013, 06:44 AM »

Quote from: WildOutdoorAddict on Aug 16, 2013, 04:45 PM

Would be nice to hit the ice before Christmas..it's been a few years for that around here.

I've never done that. would be nice. there goes Christmas shopping

chez · « **Reply #20 on:** Aug 27, 2013, 07:55 AM »

Belive that FARMERS ALMANAC AND ill tell you another story.LOL.

Chris338378 · « **Reply #21 on:** Aug 27, 2013, 06:21 PM »

I'm hoping and praying it's right. Besides they are far more accurate than Crackhead Joe on the morning. I'm thinking we should bet a bag of your pretzels to see if they're close. I'm saying they will be.

subtlehustle76 · « **Reply #22 on:** Sep 22, 2013, 01:08 PM »

After assessing all the data in Pennsylvania for the past 13 years in the months of Jan. and Feb. It looks like January will be warmer than average and February will be colder than average. When you extrapolate all the averages of temperatures for the state of Pennsylvania as recorded by NOAA and then plot them on a graph you will notice a pattern in waves about 5 years wide and the January plot shows it's on an upswing, but interestingly enough the in the February plot a pattern also appears about 4-5 year cycles almost similar but opposite in its deflections and it looks like it's in its downswing. My prediction for 2013-2014 ice fishing year looks like a late one but nonetheless there and in Feb.

subtlehustle76 · « **Reply #23 on:** Sep 22, 2013, 04:54 PM »

Upon further research delving back this time 24 years into PA's average temps monthly for Jan. and Feb. shows a cyclical pattern approx every 4-5 years of highs and lows with a para-pattern of approx 8-10 years of extremes. Superimposing both patterns onto eachother reveals a loose but evident correlation to eachother except '07-09' years where Jan. was vastly warmer and Feb. was vastly cooler, however strangely the graph pattern seems to skew off by 2 years in correlation after that. In other words just moving the graph over 2-3 years the superimposed pattern is evident again. What that means? Probably nothing, the important discovery is that currently we are in the middle of any extremes with February on a downswing and January on a downswing also but on the cusp of an extreme, so Jan. is a wildcard with more potential to be warmer correcting for any skew.

WildOutdoorAddict · « **Reply #24 on:** Sep 22, 2013, 07:52 PM »

As long as it's cold..I don't care about all the snow!

subtlehustle76 · « **Reply #25 on:** Sep 23, 2013, 06:27 AM »

Here are the graphs I made. You come up with your own conclusions.

chez · « **Reply #26 on:** Sep 23, 2013, 07:24 AM »

too COMPLICATED FOR ME TO FOLLOW ON A MONDAY.IM JUST GOING TO KEEP MY FINGERS CROSS FOR FISHABLE ICE AFTER CHRISTMAS .HOPEFULLY ALL THAT DATA FOR JANUARY IS WRONG ABOUT WARM TEMPS.GOTTA THINK POSATIVE.

dkfry · « **Reply #27 on:** Sep 23, 2013, 01:41 PM »

I prefer to have just some consistant cold temps. Not really a fan of a lot of snow. Trudging through 2' of fresh snow the other year with all my gear is something I would rather avoid if I can.

line dropper · « **Reply #28 on:** Sep 23, 2013, 01:49 PM »

well said "Bubbles" more cold temps and less snow

subtlehustle76 · « **Reply #29 on:** Sep 23, 2013, 02:25 PM »

Those graphs are for temps, not snow.

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Author Topic: Early 2013/14 winter prediction (Read 6690 times)