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Author Topic: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast  (Read 1901 times)

Offline Mancaveburnett

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Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« on: Aug 01, 2018, 12:08 PM »
All the postings I have seen so far indicates The north east will be colder than average and snowier than average. I'm hoping for a repeat from last year. Hopefully we will be on the ice in December again. Hell I would prefer a deep freeze in October.

Offline esox_xtm

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #1 on: Aug 01, 2018, 12:39 PM »
90 degrees F in the Arctic Circle yesterday. Good luck with an early deep freeze.  ::) In all fairness last year we had the best ice here in pretty much a couple of decades...

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Offline chilly-willy

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #2 on: Aug 01, 2018, 03:12 PM »
Early winter might be?  same with a noreaster wind this winter? Noreaster is a really cold wet winter if it happens??  been watching the wather a lot around here.. most of the wind rain this year came from the south west going north east.. if what I am seeing and if I am right  that mean the north east will unleash this winter hopefully cause thats some good solid ice if it does.. bUT same as the saying goes what has five ball and always screws you answer to that is the lotto and that why I don't bet so I will just say will see.. 

Offline Chris338378

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #3 on: Aug 01, 2018, 06:52 PM »
All the postings I have seen so far indicates The north east will be colder than average and snowier than average. I'm hoping for a repeat from last year. Hopefully we will be on the ice in December again. Hell I would prefer a deep freeze in October.

I'm hoping and praying that you're right.  We need a REALLY REALLY COLD winter.  Where have you seen the postings you mentioned?

Offline chilly-willy

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #4 on: Aug 01, 2018, 08:32 PM »
Seen sone ware there is a posible solar flare up this winter too like those years we did not get ice..

Offline Spider1

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #5 on: Aug 02, 2018, 05:14 AM »
geez, last winter started cold but it only lasted a month. By February I stored the gear and was getting the kayak ready. I'm just hoping for a good ol' fashioned winter. You know, a foot of ice in December that lasts into April! :tipup:

Offline bowski76

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #6 on: Aug 02, 2018, 02:19 PM »
"THEY" can't even get the weekend weather right!

Offline Chris338378

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #7 on: Aug 02, 2018, 05:07 PM »
Seen sone ware there is a posible solar flare up this winter too like those years we did not get ice..

IF that happens there's going to be a big flare up, me flippin my lid. 

Offline chilly-willy

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #8 on: Aug 02, 2018, 05:38 PM »
IF that happens there's going to be a big flare up, me flippin my lid.


Hope your not stock piling for the apocalypse?? 


Any how were hopeing and praying that is incorrect but only time will tell..

Offline 62&done

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #9 on: Aug 28, 2018, 08:09 PM »
I'm hoping for an early freeze myself  That early start last season was great but would have been better if we didn't lose it all in a heat wave. I've been searching my favorite water all summer with the depth finder and marking a few places to try on my GPS     can't wait

Offline FingerLaker607

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #10 on: Sep 06, 2018, 09:10 AM »
Please link ANY prediction for a cold winter....all I'm seeing is above average temperature predictions on all the reliable models. With the way this summer is going out, I'm getting a bad feeling....:(

Offline 62&done

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #11 on: Sep 10, 2018, 07:07 PM »
I had a good feeling these past couple mornings:  I needed a jacket  !!   Let her come   I'm ready

Offline chilly-willy

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #12 on: Sep 11, 2018, 03:50 AM »
Early winter might be?  same with a noreaster wind this winter? Noreaster is a really cold wet winter if it happens??  been watching the wather a lot around here.. most of the wind rain this year came from the south west going north east.. if what I am seeing and if I am right  that mean the north east will unleash this winter hopefully cause thats some good solid ice if it does.. bUT same as the saying goes what has five ball and always screws you answer to that is the lotto and that why I don't bet so I will just say will see..

Yep its a noreaster for fall and maybe  winter coming..  the reason I don't like noreaster is I think the winter of 74 I think it dumped 19.5 inches of snow on detroit.. cause of that east or north east wind drawls water of of lake huron before it freezes shut on a noreaster..  and out of  erie on a east wind..  then deposits snow all in Land for miles in Land lakes will be pounded..  even miles inland from those great lakes like in as far as pontiac michiGan..  will get few feet of snow if the lakes dont flash freeze!! .. heck I could tell it was going to be a noreaster back when I posted this!!   I could even tell  back in July..  I could tell all the wind for months on the 10 day for cast.. every day as a south west wind.. when you look at a compass rose on a map opposite of a south west wind is a north east wind...   all it takes to shift pattrens is the earths north pole pulling back from the sun..  then like a hot air ballon heat rizes ans cold falls out of North east..  first time I ever predicted a noreaster ever!!  lol's hopefully this hurricane that's incoming will screw this up and shift the winds!! But only time will tell?? By the way the guys on michigan west coast might enjoy hearing the above ?? cause if it's a north east wind that means the snow will blow towards Chicago not into inland to inland lakes wich made for unsafe travel on a west amd northwest wind .. like last couple year over there!!  and not thick enough ice and isolation of yhe ice cause of too much snow!!

Offline chilly-willy

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #13 on: Sep 11, 2018, 03:55 AM »
IF that happens there's going to be a big flare up, me flippin my lid.


If this noreast wind stays!! erie maybe fishabLe on lk. erie cause the wind blows ice towards shore..  just make sure it's not a south or south west or south east wind on days you fish.. also might be bad for inland lake in pa. Cause of isolating snow like I talked about in my last post..

Offline NatefishNY

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #14 on: Sep 11, 2018, 05:50 PM »
geez, last winter started cold but it only lasted a month. By February I stored the gear and was getting the kayak ready. I'm just hoping for a good ol' fashioned winter. You know, a foot of ice in December that lasts into April! :tipup:

We fished into April and had roughly a foot of ice April 1st, are you in the southern part of the state?

I too am hoping for lots of cold calm weather! Last year was an epic year!
            P.E.T.A. = People Eating Tasty Animals

Offline Spider1

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #15 on: Sep 12, 2018, 08:59 AM »
We fished into April and had roughly a foot of ice April 1st, are you in the southern part of the state?

I too am hoping for lots of cold calm weather! Last year was an epic year!

I'm in the NE Corner of PA. Usually we have ice into March and even early April. This early forecast doesn't bode well for us and seeing how our summer has been going, things don't seem to be looking up.

Offline FingerLaker607

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #16 on: Oct 15, 2018, 07:40 AM »
http://weatherwilly.blogspot.com/?m=1

Here's some good news folks...this guy is usually pretty spot on with his forecasting. 

Offline Neil McCauley

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #17 on: Oct 15, 2018, 10:53 AM »
http://weatherwilly.blogspot.com/?m=1

Here's some good news folks...this guy is usually pretty spot on with his forecasting.

Awesome. Could have a historic ice season if that forecast is correct.

Offline jrtbaits

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #18 on: Oct 15, 2018, 01:53 PM »
I like weather willy's projection!!

Offline hardwater diehard

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Give a man a fish he eats for a day .Teach a man to ice fish he has an obsession for a lifetime

Offline Neil McCauley

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #20 on: Oct 19, 2018, 09:46 PM »
Weather channel's forecat: https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-18-winter-outlook-united-states-noaa-2018-2019



But I want to know...how is a "33% chance of below average temperature" then not also a "66% chance of above average temperatures?"   ???

Offline chilly-willy

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #21 on: Oct 19, 2018, 10:53 PM »
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208


I don't trust accu weather at all I thought there compass bearing rusted out a few years ago  and could not predict a accurate weather forcast let alone the wind that was going on that day most of the time they predicted a 2 mph or calm east wind we would have gust to 25 mph and a 10 to 15 mph avarge.. out of west and AccuWeather would be sayin east wind?? Wich Left me thinking **censored**?? Just a heads up to be carefull with AccuWeather..  hwdh..   they have the worst predictions ever!! I stop useing them 5 to 10 years ago cause of the predictions they made wrong.. trying to fish in a boat with wite caps is no fun ..

Offline Pequod1

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #22 on: Oct 20, 2018, 04:42 AM »
Hmmm.... Choose between NOAA and hundreds of trained meteorologists or a guy called "weather Willy" a stock broker.

Offline joefish

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #23 on: Oct 20, 2018, 07:11 AM »
Good Time for number one rule  " Mother Nature always Wins "

Offline BeenPerchin315

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #24 on: Oct 20, 2018, 02:02 PM »
willy i like the cold but we dont need to much snow just enough to keep the hyfaxs cool on the sled. all in all tho i like the forcast hope your as close as you were last year. fish on

Offline 62&done

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #25 on: Oct 20, 2018, 05:47 PM »
It's too bad, but I have to agree with willy. I sat in my No. 1 tree stand the other day because that fool in Albany promised stiff west wind which is perfect for that location.  I had 3 separate deer bust me that morning because of a nice steady EAST wind. This same guy will brag about all the new high tec equipment they have to bring you the most "accurate and up to the minute details that you need to plan your day".   From now on I look out the window.  There , now I know what it's doing today.  Same goes for ice fishing.

Offline pawaide

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #26 on: Nov 04, 2018, 11:36 PM »
I don't know when or if it will lock up, but I have been thinking about the precipitation patterns so far in 2018. If we keep getting as much moisture dropped on us as we have been for the last several months, we could be up to our necks in snow before the end of the year. could literally bury us.

I am hopeful for a cold and calm winter, and I am hoping for snow before mid November!

Pawaide

Offline lowaccord66

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #27 on: Nov 16, 2018, 09:05 AM »
Weather channel blows.

Online BlueSnow

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Re: Preliminary 2018/19 winter forecast
« Reply #28 on: Dec 07, 2018, 08:16 AM »
For longer term predictions on precipitation and temperature I use the US Weather Service:

https://www.weather.gov/buf/winter

Shows the expected snow fall for the next couple of days and then if you click on the Long Range forecast it shows going out 4 weeks.
Blue snow is better than yellow snow

 



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