I live about ten miles from Site M, so I feel your pain. The pond in my backyard keeps going from 2" of black ice, to ice with 2" of water on it, to ice with areas of open water. My neighbor called Sunday and said that he was catching gills on his pond. He said that he had 3" of ice. By noon it was close to 50* and both of our ponds were covered with water. Not gonna' catch me out on ice like that ever. I think you are smart to wait for 4" of solid ice. No gill or speck is worth drowning over.
This weather is killing me. My only consolation is that by spring time, the gills in the pond will be bigger and there will be more of them. This weather keeps up and I am gonna' start looking for crickets.