New Years Ice?

[Icenutter]

He is a excerpt from Accuweather on the long range forecast. 

" As we near the x-mas holiday, arctic air should start to overwhelm much of the country east of the Rockies, and the potential for snow will increase. Just looking at the NAO, I expect the NAO will begin to tank by x-mas. The NAO charts continue to show a downward trend in the NAO by x-mas, which is a good sign that winter will make an appearance after a week or so of mild weather. "

[Fat Boy]

It is amazing what happens after the first snow storm of the area.  The ground becomes a reflective surface and less heat is absorbed.  I have no scientific basis for this observation, rather it's just a personal hunch.  But it always seems that the first snow storm results in weeks of cold temps.  Also, if ice hasn't formed on some lakes the snow often cools the water quickly and ice soon forms after that.  This would be a great time for 6" of snow to cover PA and MD between now and Xmas!  Hopefully we can get some lakes locked in soon.

[pletch]

Fat Boy, I disagree with the 6 inches of snowfall, this will hamper ice formation on lakes with a layer of EXISTING ice. Last year we had 3 inches of solid ice on Nov. 7 we immediately received 8 inches of snow the excess weight on the ice caused micro fractures in the ice and the snow also acted as insulation and would not allow any further freezing. If you have maybe 5 or more inches of clear ice a large snowfall will not harm the ice and any warm days only causes the snow to melt a little wich in turn refreezes. I am no scientist but I spend all winter on the ice.

[pletch]

Sorry I also wanted to add lakes with OPEN water are aided by snowfall. Basically, early season ice is trcky. I just want iiiiiiiiicccccccccceee eeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bean]

Sorry I also wanted to add lakes with OPEN water are aided by snowfall.

I'm pretty sure that's what Fat Boy was trying to say. Not - snow on minimally ice covered lakes. We know the problems that can cause.

[jig-jig THUMP]

Fellas,
I am not a meteorologist (but am a hydrologist which means I figure out what happens to the rain and snow after it comes down) but from most of what I've seen and read our temperatures are most strongly affected by the jet streams.  If the atmosphere above us is experiencing a flow of air from the north then it is bringing the cold air from the arctic with it.  From the south and it's vice-versa.  Fairly simple logic.

Fatboy, you may be right in your statement about heat reflection upward from white snow covered areas.  This may be what makes it even colder in the arctic in the winter when the days are already short and sun at a low angle.

Now as for the EL Nino and La Nina effects I think it's more complicated than my simple explanation.

One thing is for sure.... we'll get what we'll get.  Nothing we can do to change it.  And none of us is getting any younger.  I suggest we all get out there and fish hard and as often as possible when the ice forms.  You never know how long it will last around here (SC PA).  I'm sure glad that I hit it hard for what turned out to be only about a week of icefishing the local lakes around here last year.  If I'd have put it off then I'd have missed it altogether. 

Safe and successful season wishes to all.

jjT