Another graph to fuel the debate

[jbritch]

Read 'em and weep.

[Champlain Islander]

The only thing I see that is at all concerning are the latest trends on whites. Then again a trend can even out over time.

[LittleFishin]

The only thing I see that is at all concerning are the latest trends on whites. Then again a trend can even out over time.

You cant see that the yellows are drastically lower?

Jbritch Thank you!

1. The State knows Whites prey on the eggs of other species (heavily)
2. The Whites are increasing
3. The yellows are decreasing

VTFishbio please give us your thoughts if you wish to share any department data 

[Champlain Islander]

You cant see that the yellows are drastically lower?

Jbritch Thank you!

1. The State knows Whites prey on the eggs of other species (heavily)
2. The Whites are increasing
3. The yellows are decreasing

VTFishbio please give us your thoughts if you wish to share any department data

Drastically lower than what? Looks to me like there was a spike down over a small time frame but recent harvest numbers are somewhat level. Like I said there isn't any data about numbers of fishermen. That high point could have been during a period when more people were fishing. The only data which shows a big drop lately are the whites which are invasives to begin with. I don't see that the harvest of whites has increased.

[TRT]

Yellows if you use 200,000 as the baseline 98, 99, 2000 were the boom before the bust in 2002.
Since 2002 bust, cycle has repeated itself 6 times looks overall stable - fishery is cyclical.   

[LittleFishin]

200,200 is less than 300,000 (not counting the 99' spike, and the 2016/17 #'s for whites should not be relied on as the "in" season for heavy hauling was disrupted by the warm weather. Personally, I would like to see my tax dollars invested into a research project on the correlation of age/size vs amount sold; be much better than the free giveaways Vermont likes to hand out.


How big do fish need to be to sell them? Can I sell the dinks?

[Champlain Islander]

Most of the guys I know send the dinks back down the hole to grow up.

[thefishingweatherman]

Let's see a chart of estimated total fish biomass for the entire lake over time... When THAT shows precipitous drops, I'll get concerned...

[Champlain Islander]

You have to remember the amount.... if declines are shown might be due to less people fishing. 100 people on average will catch so many pounds of fish. What happens to that amount if the number of people fishing drops to 50? On the charts there is no mention about anything except total harvest numbers. The charts really show nothing other than that. Weather and the number of fishermen probably play into the harvest number rise and fall from year to year.

[LittleFishin]

You have to remember the amount.... if declines are shown might be due to less people fishing. 100 people on average will catch so many pounds of fish. What happens to that amount if the number of people fishing drops to 50? On the charts there is no mention about anything except total harvest numbers. The charts really show nothing other than that. Weather and the number of fishermen probably play into the harvest number rise and fall from year to year.

I know many many people who do thier outdoor activities in other States because they lost hope in ours.... very sad.

Yellows if you use 200,000 as the baseline 98, 99, 2000 were the boom before the bust in 2002.
Since 2002 bust, cycle has repeated itself 6 times looks overall stable - fishery is cyclical.

This graph does make the volatility appear as balancing out

Most of the guys I know send the dinks back down the hole to grow up.

 

Let's see a chart of estimated total fish biomass for the entire lake over time... When THAT shows precipitous drops, I'll get concerned...

good luck getting an accurate N population (sample size) or marginal data that shows an appropriate margin for error. Like most things in this State they will conform the data to display what they want. 

[mudchuck]

As I recall, 2014 was the bumper year for white perch as this was the season when it mostly became common knowledge to show up at St. Albans bay, or below CP bridge and you could put bare hooks down the hole and catch a jumbo sized white perch!
People were pulling 300# off a day in their sleds...

[thefishingweatherman]

I know many many people who do thier outdoor activities in other States because they lost hope in ours.... very sad.

The grass is always greener on the other side, so they say. Where are they heading, and why? I would say Vermont is a very good place to fish.

[thefishingweatherman]

Like most things in this State they will conform the data to display what they want.

Sounds like you cracked that case wide open. Congrats!

[Champlain Islander]

As I recall, 2014 was the bumper year for white perch as this was the season when it mostly became common knowledge to show up at St. Albans bay, or below CP bridge and you could put bare hooks down the hole and catch a jumbo sized white perch!
People were pulling 300# off a day in their sleds...

Being an invasive species that isn't native to Champlain, I wonder if there are external pressures on their biomass like die offs similar to alewives which routinely collapse due to their inability to deal with water temp variations. I remember catching a white for the first time in the early 90's at Larribees. Didn't even know what it was so it is a relatively recent addition to Champlain. I remember talking to a biologist a few years later and he predicted that whites would become the largest biomass of all the species in the lake.

[Lord_of_the_Perch]

If the data comes from the fish buyers; then that data means nothing. Yield numbers can be (and are) fudged all the time in order to protect themselves from any sort of restrictions.

[Nthaburgh]

This data is not very useful if one is trying to extrapolate population numbers from it. It's harvest data, and to me that's pretty much all it is. Ice thickness, it's safety, and the amount of fishable surface area so effected by weather, which, as you all know differs from year to year. Without other data such as total fisherman hours (number of participants x time committed) I find it difficult to find any meaning in this. Just my 2 cents.

[jonny jigger]

is graph from selling fish? because some years prices are higher then other and more guys fish for them. 2014 the price for white perch was high if I remember they were paying 75 cents a pound and ever body and there brother was fishing for them. another thing the last 3 years the ice sucked and there was a lot of places you couldent fish or the ice dident last long and cut the year short. lots of factors to go along with that graph

[kej06181]

Can OP send us a link to where this graph came from? Just seems like we should find out how reliable this is and how this data was collected.

[LittleFishin]

The grass is always greener on the other side, so they say. Where are they heading, and why? I would say Vermont is a very good place to fish.

Upstate NY for better Walleye & Crappie... both of which do not seem to be VT's top sport fish or even in the top 5 (IMO)

[Mad Tom]

Toss out the high and low for yellows. Fairley balanced

[VTMatt]

If the data comes from the fish buyers; then that data means nothing. Yield numbers can be (and are) fudged all the time in order to protect themselves from any sort of restrictions.

Exactly

[jbritch]

I'm glad you are all talking about this; that was my intention.

I got the raw data for the number of pounds of fish received by fish mongers and then sold in Canada.  These numbers are from Vermont fish mongers only.  We could assume that New York fish mongers are also experiencing similar numbers.  Also remember that these numbers include all inland lakes in VT not just Lake Champlain. 

To answer the calls for authenticity: I believe in my heart that Shawn Goode (VT F&G) has not analyzed the data graphically but only is the keeper of the raw numbers.  You can't blame him or his department; it's not in their interest to know the trends; it's not their job.  It's OUR job.  So I personally took the data and used MS Excel (that you have on your computer) and printed out these simple graphs.  So there is no chance that anyone at the state finagled the numbers.  Like Lord of the Perch says, and he should know, that if there is any fallibility in the data it is at the fishmonger level, at the point of sale, or right afterward when the totals are tallied.

No one mentioned the taxation issue.  The dinks (<6") are discarded or the fisherman takes them home for his cat.

We've been through these issues every season, it seems.  Of course, the graph does not indicate the numbers of fishermen doing the fishing/selling.  No one in Vermont tracks that number; it would be impossible to make every guy sitting on a pail to self-report at the end of his day.  And, besides, that number doesn't matter.  It's the actual number of pounds of fish taken out of OUR state.

I had argued (with tongue in cheek) that tackle sales could be used as a predictor.  Of course, the weather plays a major role.  We can't expect numbers to explain everything.  Just like when you buy a new truck; the price is not the only factor in your decision, is it?  The numbers are not there to kick start more legislation; they're there to GUIDE us.

However, despite feelings in the Burg, one COULD extrapolate total population numbers from this raw data.  All you need is an equation with good estimates for the variables and a tolerable level of precision (99.7% for medical, 97.5% for things related to quality but not life-threatening, 90% for social issues).  The computer generated the regression line all by itself and that one thing is the most important because it indicates a TREND.

Personally, the yellow perch are the most important species to me.  The first thing I did with my father, other than working, was catching perch on St. Albans bay; it was also one of the last things we ever did together.  So I want yellow perch in my future and my grandkids' future.  I don't target white perch and wouldn't try to clean them again so I would sell them if I got any.  THAT may be one of the subtle factors that we haven't considered yet.  If a man catches equal numbers of yellow and white, does he take the yellows home to feed his family and sell the whites because yellows are much easier to clean?  And so much better tasting, too.  I don't think I could make my Poor Man's Shrimp with white perch...

[fishingidjit]

You have to remember the amount.... if declines are shown might be due to less people fishing. 100 people on average will catch so many pounds of fish. What happens to that amount if the number of people fishing drops to 50? On the charts there is no mention about anything except total harvest numbers. The charts really show nothing other than that. Weather and the number of fishermen probably play into the harvest number rise and fall from year to year.

Ditto on the above -the graph shows harvest only.You can't interpet anything from this unless you like going off half cocked !

[LittleFishin]

It seems to me that the State could benefit from knowing how many people participate in selling fish. Don't you have to register to sell fish or something? Or is that just to purchase? What about an endorsement (free) like a duck stamp on a license to collect the data on who intends to sell fish? 

[perchhauler]

The spike around 98 and 99 on the graph is likely due to the high prices being paid at the time, around $1.80 for large perch. This is also before white perch took over and whiped out the smelt, and before the introduction of alewifes.  Also, since then unemployment rates have declined and it is harder to obtain unemployment benefits, which were effectively subsidizing the commercial fishing market.   There was much better yellow perch fishing before the introduction of alewives. 

[fishingidjit]

The spike around 98 and 99 on the graph is likely due to the high prices being paid at the time, around $1.80 for large perch. This is also before white perch took over and whiped out the smelt, and before the introduction of alewifes.  Also, since then unemployment rates have declined and it is harder to obtain unemployment benefits, which were effectively subsidizing the commercial fishing market.   There was much better yellow perch fishing before the introduction of alewives.

Excellent points !

[Champlain Islander]

Everything I have seen puts this whole debate into the social agenda. No real biological data and no subject matter expert on the sale of panfish. Just peoples biased opinions.

[Light liner]

I just blame it on the guns.

[bootstrap]

they should ban buckets that hold more than 10 perch that will solve the problem.