Running FDD numbers

[CL_Outdoors]

Just ran the numbers for NE Indiana temps this week. I used the weather underground 10 day forecast and determined avg. daily temps by taking the forecasted temp for every other hour from 1/3 to 1/8. Here’s what I got.

1/3: 18.4° avg
1/4: 26° avg
1/5: 27° avg
1/6: 15.6° avg
1/7: 11.6° avg
1/8: 18.4° avg

Using the popular FDD method to determine ice formation, and assuming first ice will form around 1AM on Monday AND no precipitation, we get a total of 74.75 FDD’s from the dates above. Takes approximately 15 FDD’s to make 1in of ice, so we could be looking at nearly 5in of ice for the northern most parts of the state by this time next weekend…

I guess I should put a little disclaimer here saying these temps were only for the Angola area, and this by no means guarantees safe ice. Just food for thought, but nonetheless….. I’m getting excited 

[natahka72]

Many hope your calculations are correct!!

[hardwater diehard]

More fun with numbers

http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/

[CL_Outdoors]

More fun with numbers

http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/

This is actually the exact page that I learned the FDD method from a few years ago. Really interesting read!!

[river_scum]

Indeed cl.

Most of our group thinks we could be drilling by end of the week. If big if the weatherman is correct that is. The early ice spots will fill up fast.

[CL_Outdoors]

Sure will river scum. Over the years I’ve found the weather underground 10 day forecast to be one of the most reliable forecasts out there, so I’m pretty confident that we’ll be on the hard stuff by Friday. Tight lines gents

[zcm_82]

I'm thinking Thursday or Friday round here on small water if the forecast holds. I had a poke around a few hours ago and a couple were starting to skim.

[walleyeboater]

FWIW, I spoke today to a resort near Gaylord Michigan about sking, not much snow.
Then I asked about ice fishing in the area, she said no safe ice yet.
And you guys predict walking on water by Friday?
Hmmmm....
6 hrs north and they haven’t got on yet, I’m skeptical.

[coopason]

their fishing Cadillac and Mitchell, both have 5 inches of ice.
You got bad info about Gaylord area.

Get out now and watch your target lake's as the Ice forms day to day.
If you can, helps to know where those open spots are that froze last.

going scouting today

Coop

[CL_Outdoors]

Lotta lakes locked up last night. Maybe a few small open spots with ducks based on a few of the webcams I have access to, but looking real good and clean. Let's all pray for no snow this week.

[Lee1977]

I’ve had my pond locked up several times but not like it did last night. Went and looked at it and it’s clear ice. Looks to be at least a half inch. I’m in noble county and on Friday I was fishing it with the long pole. Did real well with a spike and jig. I’m hoping to be on by Thursday or Friday.

[CWlake]

Lots of channels locked up on Sunday. Should have 2"-3" by the weekend. Here we go!

[bigr]

The wind is a big factor not accounted for. 20 to 30 mph coming in mid week for a couple days atleast. Slow ice making after that. Channels maybe in a week or two. Hope I'm wrong.

[river_scum]

No snow in forecast that I seen. That and temp be our only worry if locked up. Sunny days can kill the waters that are chocolate milk though.

Just use some restraint everyone.lol don't need any news stories made. We all ready to jump on it

[zcm_82]

I had a poke around some of my usual small ice ponds after work yesterday. All were skinned over, and had around half an inch where I popped a few holes along the banks with a chisel.

Definitely not today or tomorrow with today hovering around freezing most of the afternoon and evening, but Thursday or Friday they'll be ready.

[fishinator]

I found about the same. All locked up with about a half inch.  Fingers crossed. 

[zcm_82]

I found about the same. All locked up with about a half inch.  Fingers crossed.

Not surprised. From your location, we're neighbors 

I do most of my open water fishing, and some of my hardwater in IN, so I post both state boards a lot. Indiana is a LOT more active than IL, though.

[Lee1977]

Went down and checked the pond and was somewhat disappointed, it only has about an inch of ice. I was hoping for a little more. I guess you just can’t rush some things and this is one of them. We need a few more single digit nights! Looking like I might have to go north for the weekend.

[zcm_82]

Went down and checked the pond and was somewhat disappointed, it only has about an inch of ice. I was hoping for a little more. I guess you just can’t rush some things and this is one of them. We need a few more single digit nights! Looking like I might have to go north for the weekend.

Bet you'll have 3-4 by Friday afternoon, if your local forecast is anything like mine.

[CL_Outdoors]

I'm getting similar numbers. If not by Friday afternoon, then almost certainly at least 3" by Saturday late morning in our areas. I'm heading to NE IN Friday afternoon for a quick scout

Regardless... BRING YOUR SPUDS yall..... I agree with river scum, we dont need any stories in the news come Monday!!

[wax_worm]

Shore ice is likely to be thinner due to the ground not being frozen when that first cold night hit.  Wind will be a factor unless the lake/pond is fully capped.  Should be good on some channels by the weekend in the northern counties.

[zcm_82]

Just checked the same ponds again, just over 1" today.

[CL_Outdoors]

Just checked the same ponds again, just over 1" today.

Perfect. With the low temps starting tomorrow night thru Sat. morning, I say we'll be golden by the weekend.

[zcm_82]

I'll probably be able to sneak out onto the smallest one on Thursday. It puts on ice really fast when it gets down below 10-15°, and most of it is only about waist deep, so worst case scenario I'm not drowning 

I stepped through it a couple times early last season. It has a lot of moss and weedy gunk around the edges, so even when the ice on it is thick, it can be pretty soft the first 5-10' out.

The bigger ones will be Friday or Saturday fishing.

[river_scum]

thx 4 the updates.