how much ice are we going to lose?

[Hardwaterlipn147]

  unfortunately I think its going to be much worse then everyone thinks . I hope not but glens falls and surrounding areas are supposed to get close to 3 inches of rain!!! I was goin to fish LG on sunday now I might have to wait.

[adkiceman1]

I think this rain is a blessing.  We were starting to get a lot of snow on the ice and things were getting slushy.   This should help us get back to bare ice!

[trapper2000]

it's global warming ,i'm telling you ....polar ice  cap melted  the  end is  near and  i can't stop it ...................oh well i love ice  fishing on 50degree  days   ...see ya    warm water  running down them holes   

[mcperch]

Can I help I might know something

[Looper]

Could the rain raise the lake level and cause cracks/gaps?  Or is it not close to enough to do this?

[iloveacrappiedinner]

Could the rain raise the lake level and cause cracks/gaps?  Or is it not close to enough to do this?

Every water body will handle this differently. For the most part, direct shoreline runoff wont be an issue as there is still snow on the ground which will absorb much of the rainfall. Storm sewer outfalls and direct discharge points (streams entering lakes) will be the hardest hit and could see heavy thinning.
Temps Sat will plummet stopping any ice loss due to temperatures. Cracking may appear along shorelines where the lake levels rise with the rain runoff and then heavy snowfall sinking the ice. I would say in eastern NY, this event will be insignificant with the exception of areas with thin ice, and stream inlets. Avoid those areas this weekend and by midweek they'll be back to fine. Warm temps today will not harm the ice at all, so really it's one day of warm temps and rain. Any large lake wont even notice this. 

[Fishin-Mission]

Looking at the Oneida Lake web cam I only see snow on the ice, no water or wet areas on top.  It appears there will be no ice loss on Oneida and I would bet the same for most if not all of the lakes in central and norther New York.  I was hoping the warm days would melt all of the snow on Oneida so when it refreeze we would have even more ice, perhaps smoother ice.

[jon ny]

All the ice on every lake will melt and become open water. 3 weeks below freezing and often below 0 will be offset by 36 hours above freezing and some rain.  Stay home.

[mcperch]

 ::)YUP YOU STAY HOME WE'LL CATCH FISH 

[outfisherman1]

::)YUP YOU STAY HOME WE'LL CATCH FISH 

Haha. Good stuff. Every lake will be affected different. My advice for everyone is get a fat fishing buddy and send him out first. Unfortunately I'm the first guy in line. Haha

[Zeker259]

More then I thought was already lost today. The white ice was slush and this puddle only had 4 - 5" of good ice before. No 8" perch or any other fish is worth the risk here. I will wait for the cold to return to firm things up. SPUD, SPUD SPUD!

 

[trapper2000]

I was on the oce today other then the trail became slush I sure didn't notice any difference in ice at all .....i'll be fishing tomorrow too

[tblaster123]

The answer is none. This happens every year guys, it's January.. the ice isn't gonna go out from 2 days of mild temps and rain.

[scott14580]

I see everyone is so sure of the ice conditions after tomorrow. 55°, pouring rain and strong wind now. Go ahead and stroll on that local lake till you hit a "man eater". Too much confidence will kill someone on here.

[bigfish1212]

Still won't touch 8"+ of ice every around me has a lot of places are over a foot that won't do a thing to that.

[St. Lawrence River Guy]

The conditions were nearly perfect - rain to smooth out the surface & get rid of the snow followed by a week of deep cold to tighten things back up.  However, a foot of snow tomorrow night is going to make the ice dangerous in places.

I watched a 7" hole grow to the point where my tip up was unstable in 3 hrs on the ice this am.  Some of those holes will be enormous by the time it turns back to snow tomorrow night.  Then we'll get the insulating effect of snow and water on the existing ice ......... ugh. #YMMV but I'll be staying on land for a few days.

[trapper2000]

scott how many times have we said  ....use a spud ... i fished the last few days and it hit 55 today we lost no measurable ice ......i'm not telling anyone to fish or not to,i am saying i'm going with safty gear  ....different bodys of water in different locations will be different

[beershanty]

the shore ice goes quick on some of the lakes I fish and it is downpouring heavy with high winds. im guessing the shore ice could be iffy going into saturday but after saturday night everything should be locked back up and tight again, hopefully long into april!!

[can_of_worms]

Please use extreme caution if you fish this weekend, we have lost our shore ice on Honeoye in one of our access points, old holes are enormous now, it has rained well over an inch over night and will not let up until late day. It is then going to change to a mix and dump over a foot of snow. It may be awhile before it is good again the cold temps will have little effect with such a heavy insulating cover of snow. Hope for the best, but treat it with respect the next few days.

[eyehi]

The conditions were nearly perfect - rain to smooth out the surface & get rid of the snow followed by a week of deep cold to tighten things back up.  However, a foot of snow tomorrow night is going to make the ice dangerous in places.

I watched a 7" hole grow to the point where my tip up was unstable in 3 hrs on the ice this am.  Some of those holes will be enormous by the time it turns back to snow tomorrow night.  Then we'll get the insulating effect of snow and water on the existing ice ......... ugh. #YMMV but I'll be staying on land for a few days.

this is sound advice here .... the ice thickness will not be the problem .... the issue will be the large holes that are snow covered .... I fished a popular spot yesterday that looked like swiss cheese from all the holes .... no way would I fish there after the snow .... use a spud and wait for things to harden up again ....

[big_guy_13021]

Just have to watch where your walking some of the 8 inch holes mite become 10 inch holes..i dont think much more than an inch or 2 of ice will b lost..wont need the auger today im gonna fish all the holes that are open..and tomarrow back down to 11 degrees..make sure u have your cleets on

[filetandrelease]

Big guy just fish trapps holes 👍🏻

[trapper2000]

=))  he can't i'll be there  hey  Freddie  I  got   the only one they  had   187 bucks   

[filetandrelease]

That’s a good price I think your going to like it , those guys won’t know who you are for a couple days anyway ,

[Jake1]

Fished till dark last night out of 10" holes someone drilled, walked out before work today and is like water draining out of a bathtub and the holes are probably 15"+, Falling into that and breaking a leg scares me. we had a lot of snow cover so most of the water on top was snow melt and rain no actual ice melting , yet!!

[Rugburn]

Lost a couple inches on my pond, with an inch of water on top. Drilled a hole expecting it to drain down, nothing happened. There is so much water going in the shore line is going fast, and muddy water runoff is on top of ice at the inlet side. It is safe to walk on but not as hard as it was, cleats really penetrate now. It's only just a small pond and changes take place faster than bigger water. I use it for my wellness gauge before heading out. Not sure if this helps anyone? Take a spud and stay safe.

[scott14580]

scott how many times have we said  ....use a spud ... i fished the last few days and it hit 55 today we lost no measurable ice ......i'm not telling anyone to fish or not to,i am saying i'm going with safty gear  ....different bodys of water in different locations will be different

Ummmmmmm, not one time did you say to use a Spud......

[eddie the k]

As someone already said, the holes get big with the runoff. I was on Silver yesterday, and some of the 6 inch holes we drilled in the morning were 10 to 12 inches by dark.