Most years, yes there will be ice on Moosehead early-mid January but last year it took a while. By "the bay" I assume you mean North Bay, so you're planning to stay in Tomhegan/Toe of the Boot? That's a big body of water and could be the last area of the lake to freeze (other than stream inlet/outlets and narrows that never freeze). January 15th might be cutting it close, and don't forget that no salmon can be removed from the water until February 15th. Darby is correct, watch the local camp postings, websites and webcams. Those webcams are the best source of ice info. Be extra careful on that lake, seems like every year someone is lost through the ice.