I have an Ascent but was able to try on a Rise locally before I bought it. If you aren't layering a bunch under it, I'd say you'd want a Large. I'm about 20lbs lighter than you but also 6" shorter, 34x30 jeans, and the L fits me fine with a sweatshirt underneath. I have room to add another layer if I need to, but it doesn't feel too big with just a T-shirt under either.