Barometer rising or falling?

[Rebelss]

Had (still have) a Casio watch that tells ya best days/times to fish based on Lunar cycles...it would show 1,2,3, or 4 fish (best) every day and change times during the day. Wore it for years. Seem to do best when it said it was poor fishing. Maybe it's fish were mixed up.   

I see they still make one, but have changed it a bit. Still shows best fish times based on Lunar cycles...


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[Hillsfisher]

I can agree to disagree when it comes to pressure changes, but the lunar cycle thing is really a myth that needs to die.  Sorry....  I am sure that I will get flack for saying this but check the science folks.  Here is the thing, one person going fishing is one data point.  To scientifically validate anything, you need a lot of data, as you want to see trends in the data.  More data the better.  Fishing tournaments are prefect data sets for this.  You have a large number of people fishing the same water body on the same day, weather conditions, lunar cycle, etc...  What you see is a large disparity in the results.  Someone figured it out and won the tournament, others did ok, and yet others did not catch a fish.  Not to say that a tournament has never finished without anyone catching a fish, as that probably has happened, but by and large it does not.  Once again, the more data the better.  So, if you are out on your favorite lake not catching anything, someone else probably is...  If something like pressure or lunar cycles had any influence then everyone should experience the same results, however that is not what we see.

When it comes to fishing three things are key to sucess- the right place, at the right time, and the right presentation.  If you nail all three you have a great day, if you are missing one, you might still get some fish, missing 2 or 3 not so much. 

Sorry but I am a data geek so can go on forever on this, but I won't... Here is the real question- what is a good day of fishing?  Since that is our standard, it is what we are trying to measure one day to the next to, we need to define what a good day of fishing is.  That is tough!  It will vary person to person wildly.  Is it numbers of fish, species, big fish...?     

[stripernut]

Let's not forget;
Confirmation Bias -
The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories

[Rebelss]

Occam's razor. 

[FishGut]

Hills, you're right. It does take a lot of data points. That's why you need a baseline to judge results from. That has to be one individual fisherman. Day in, day out, folks tend to have the same general behaviors, and use the same techniques. The best way to log this would be to track a huge sample of individuals as they fish over the course of a year or ten, all the while recording their success while also taking note of time of day, lunar phases, barometric pressure, and other weather conditions including cloud cover, temperature and wind speed. That way you could analyze the individual's success/failure rate and relate it to conditions. (If only folks kept fishing logs.... )

But to do it RIGHT, you need 10,000 individuals data sets to establish anything close to a pattern.

[perch chacer]

Falling Barometer is good.  Just like when a storm is on the way, you will see a lot more deer out feeding towards night, I think same for fish. 

[Subway4X4]

Barometric pressure changes affect my knees long before I can see what's going on with the fish.

Haha.

Me too.  My right knee starts feeling bad, I know a storm is coming.  LOL

[Hillsfisher]

FishGut- you are very correct.  I would love to have a data set such as that!  I would geek out on that for weeks without sleep!  Ha!  Like you said that is very unlikely to get.  Even my own data is not complete.  Being a life-long fishing data geek, I have recorded my fishing since a kid (now 53).  In spiral notebooks back in the day to computer databases today.  However, I never recorded such things as weather, pressure, lunar, etc...  so even my data is not a good source. 

[Coosangler]

There is a term known as the
"butterfly affect"
The wind from a butterfly wing can produce a drastic change
Wild animals and fish, are more in tune with that and all other factors than humans
I prefer falling pressure based on my lifetime of experience

[Rebelss]

I find a falling barometer and the RAIL* theory seem  to produce the most fish for folks. 


*Right AfterI Left