Author Topic: WINTER 2021/2022  (Read 3061 times)

Offline hardwater diehard

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Offline zcm_82

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #1 on: Aug 08, 2021, 11:01 AM »
I eyeball the NOAA long range forecasts all year, they update the forecast model once a month. Some years they are close, others are way off, but the one month lead is usually fairly close.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php

Next update will be next week. It's usually posted on the 16th or 17th each month.

Offline Rebelss

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #2 on: Aug 08, 2021, 11:31 AM »
I always follow the Old Farmers predics....for fun. Neither one is ever right half the time. I've got every year of both going back 21 years, my little collection.   ;)
I'll follow the squirrels and how many nuts they are packing away, how active the bees are, how many spiders are out and about, when the geese head north, how wide are the bands on the wooly-bear caterpillar, how many fogs in August, how thick onion skins are, and how many holes there are in my Winter socks.   ;D

                                    


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Offline lefty2053

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #3 on: Aug 08, 2021, 02:39 PM »
I always follow the Old Farmers predics....for fun. Neither one is ever right half the time. I've got every year of both going back 21 years, my little collection.   ;)
I'll follow the squirrels and how many nuts they are packing away, how active the bees are, how many spiders are out and about, when the geese head north, how wide are the bands on the wooly-bear caterpillar, how many fogs in August, how thick onion skins are, and how many holes there are in my Winter socks.   ;D
Ok so that last thing. I would bet the more holes you have the colder it is going to be. Am I right?
<===Lefty===

Offline Rebelss

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #4 on: Aug 08, 2021, 03:02 PM »
Ok so that last thing. I would bet the more holes you have the colder it is going to be. Am I right?

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!!!!!  :thumbsup:



                                    


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Offline hardwater diehard

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #5 on: Aug 09, 2021, 09:07 AM »
This last years prediction ...how did it fair in your area

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac
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Offline zcm_82

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #6 on: Aug 09, 2021, 09:49 AM »
This last years prediction ...how did it fair in your area

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

Way off for my area. We were a bit snowier than usual for the season. Most of December was fairly mild, as was most of January, except for a bitter cold shot between Xmas and the New Year. Then it dropped off and February ended up being one of the top 10 coldest on record here.

It flipped from Winter weather to Spring like a switch at the end of February, though. We went from -15į to 55į in less than a week, so the ice melted off in a hurry. I had went out on 11" of pond ice on a Saturday, and the thing was open water before the next weekend. Feb 22 or 23 was my last fishable ice day, and the ponds were open water by the 26th or 27th.

Offline slipperybob

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #7 on: Aug 11, 2021, 04:31 PM »
Well I hope there isn't going to be those rain/sleet/snow weather where all the equipment just gets drenched in water.  That was rough last season as I walked out my sled in that weather.  I was wet and miserable. 
For more information read my MN nice journal

Offline skifisher

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #8 on: Aug 11, 2021, 07:36 PM »
Iím hoping for a ďnormalď winter this year so we can be on the ice mid November! Last year the weather was all over the place, from very cold to unseasonably warm, contrary to what the ďexpertísĒ had to say!
Thatís why Iíve learned to rely on my Weather Rock. Itís a rock on a cord hanging outside. If itís hot, itís hot. If itís cold, itís cold. If itís not moving, itís calm. If itís moving, itís windy. If itís raining, itís wet. If itís snowing itís white. Itís NEVER been wrong!  ;D
"Ice fishing...ah, the anticipation! 🎣Ē

Offline zcm_82

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #9 on: Aug 11, 2021, 08:14 PM »
Iím hoping for a ďnormalď winter this year so we can be on the ice mid November! Last year the weather was all over the place, from very cold to unseasonably warm, contrary to what the ďexpertísĒ had to say!
Thatís why Iíve learned to rely on my Weather Rock. Itís a rock on a cord hanging outside. If itís hot, itís hot. If itís cold, itís cold. If itís not moving, itís calm. If itís moving, itís windy. If itís raining, itís wet. If itís snowing itís white. Itís NEVER been wrong!  ;D

We don't really seem to have "normal" winters around here that often anymore. Most winters the temperature is like a yo-yo, so we end up going back and forth from open water to fishable ice 2-3 times in a season.  ??? 

It used to be a pretty sure bet we'd have ice from mid-January to mid-February, but you never know now. There have been a couple over the past 10 years where we never even got solid ice.

Offline DR.SPECKLER

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #10 on: Aug 11, 2021, 08:18 PM »
Same here,first ice forms then rain wipes it away,starts over then get 12" of snow that slows ice formation,gets warm and repeat .i finally get out mid jan and off mid February.rarely get over 6" of ice anymore.i can see myself fishing steelhead thru the winter.more reliable with these crapshoot Michigan winters.

Offline Rebelss

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #11 on: Aug 11, 2021, 08:48 PM »
The predics are pretty generalized for a lot of leeway, IMO. "Cold, with snowy periods"....duh.   ;D

                                    


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Offline bart

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #12 on: Aug 12, 2021, 06:16 AM »
They don't know what's going on 3 days out let alone this January...
"Many fish their entire lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after."-Henry David Thoreau
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Offline hardwater diehard

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #13 on: Sep 18, 2021, 08:05 AM »
Good read ..little long but she is pretty spot on in general winter predictions for the last several seasons I have been following her . In particular snow storm wise she has told it like it will be . Scroll to the bottom if you dont like the techno jargon. 

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2021/09/here-are-some-very-early-thoughts-on.html?fbclid=IwAR3uMkc32JFgDwFMvgjlP3QrBi8BeofLXRIscoUQlUIwWWdo3JR7ITTMT_o
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Offline Rebelss

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #14 on: Sep 18, 2021, 11:27 AM »
They don't know what's going on 3 days out let alone this January...

Ya got that right.  :thumbsup: Weather predicitin' friend and I have been keeping track all Summer of heavy rain/storms predics here by the local NWS station.....must be minimum of at least 50% chance of moderate rain with storms. NINE times this summer the NWS totally blew it, and we received nothing...that included two flash flood watches, where we didn't even get a drop. o when and where do what.Really pi**in' off the farmers here, since they depend on that as to when and where do what. I have zero confidence in these weather morjits. They couldn't predict a sunrise or sunset if they had to.

                                    


"Seems like time is here and gone".....Doobies

Offline badger132

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #15 on: Sep 18, 2021, 04:31 PM »
A friend once told me that a study of history showed that the weather forecast would be slightly more accurate if they replaced the weather prediction with "Tomorrow will be pretty much like today"

Wish I could fins the original source on that...

 :tipup:

Offline meandcuznalfy

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #16 on: Sep 18, 2021, 06:39 PM »
This last years prediction ...how did it fair in your area

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

Not very close, got the dry right, but no cold at all

Offline rdhammah

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #17 on: Sep 19, 2021, 07:44 AM »
my winter forecast - gonna be cold Dec through the end of Feb. Possible occasional snow, rain or mix throughout this time. there will be a warming trend in the northeast toward the end of Feb and into March.

Offline filetandrelease

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #18 on: Sep 19, 2021, 08:04 AM »

 Our weather here is influenced by Lake Ontario, so weather is very unpredictable
 Anything beyond a day can be a reach
 

Offline Hardwater2

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #19 on: Sep 19, 2021, 03:15 PM »
Regardless,
Iím excited for the upcoming season!
Today I tinkered with some ice gear..
Looking forward to it.

Offline skifisher

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #20 on: Sep 19, 2021, 04:38 PM »
Regardless,
Iím excited for the upcoming season!
Today I tinkered with some ice gear..
Looking forward to it.
Iíve been ďtinkeringĒ with ice fishing gear all summer! I can hardly wait for the upcoming season either! 🤪
"Ice fishing...ah, the anticipation! 🎣Ē

Offline IceAddict87

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #21 on: Sep 19, 2021, 08:23 PM »
I follow several weather channels on YouTube and read into forecasts quite a bit, some are better than others but like everyone says predicting the weather can be tricky. I would enjoy a good ice season this year in Iowa but there isnít much I can do about. Before long I will be getting the otter down out of the garage rafters and start the season long process of tinkering with it and getting everything just right.

Offline hardwater diehard

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Offline smitty

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #23 on: Oct 01, 2021, 05:40 AM »

Looking pretty good for the northeast! Bring it on !!!!!!

smitty :tipup:

Offline zcm_82

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #24 on: Oct 01, 2021, 06:09 AM »
It's been running in the 90s here this week, so it certainly doesn't feel like fall yet 🙄  Long term forecasts have been trending a bit warmer of late, which means spotty ice at best for us this winter and no ice at worst if they're correct.

Offline Akhardwater

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #25 on: Oct 01, 2021, 09:22 AM »
Donít want to rub it in or nothing but Iíve had about 6 inches of snow on the ground since last Thursday.  I think itís going to be an interesting winter.
I was born an Alaskan I just didn't live here at the time.

Offline zcm_82

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #26 on: Oct 01, 2021, 04:45 PM »
It's 87į here at the moment... in October  :'(

Offline ran7ger

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #27 on: Oct 01, 2021, 07:01 PM »
+27c here in north central saskatchewan a couple days ago  :-\

Offline missoulafish

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #28 on: Oct 06, 2021, 10:03 AM »





Offline jimhaney08

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Re: WINTER 2021/2022
« Reply #29 on: Oct 07, 2021, 03:35 PM »
My brother was out fishing today (central Pennsylvania).  He said the water is still 70 degrees.  No bueno.
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