Farmer's Almanac winter prediction

[OldSailor]

Here's some good reading material!!!
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/farmers-almanac-winter-weather-predictions-161600007.html

[esox_xtm]

Here's some good reading material!!!
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/farmers-almanac-winter-weather-predictions-161600007.html

Yep! Great reading and when yer done you can use it to clean yourself. Usta try and believe all that but I've come to say "no way can they know".

No judgement on the "true Almanac believers" out there. It just doesn't work for me. Kinda like global warming by us last winter... 

[DR.SPECKLER]

Yeah im definitely in the “cant predict the future” group.

[icefisher-45]

It is good reading that and the garden Almanac. Just have to wait and see what happens. The weather guessers are wrong most of the time as well.

[Bryfish84]

Local news did a story on this. Almanac is wrong more then right.

[Spider1]

I gotta agree, the Almanac is wrong more than it's ever right.

The weather we get across the country comes from the Pacific ocean. What happens there will dictate what happens across the country. I always check out the NOAA predictions and they have been spot on every year as far back as I can remember checking them. So far they are predicting a mild winter with average precipitation.

[esox_xtm]

Still a fun read. Lotsa stuff in there! 

[eriksat1]

The long term winter prediction by the meteorologists for our area was dead on last winter for the upper midwest. I predict cold, snow, ice.

[eriksat1]

It mostly has to do with the way the jet stream sets up for winter. Last winter the jet stream was coming down from the north right through Manitoba.

[esox_xtm]

K erik, gonna hold you to your prediction for 2019 - 2020... 

[tm37]

what it does not tell us if it will be an early winter.

[esox_xtm]

No such thing as an early winter. It always begins December 21st... 

[lefty2053]

It doesn't matter what any weather service says. I can look out my window in the morning and it can be total clouds and snowing and a few hours later it is toasty warm and all sun. There is no way to predict weather. Jet streams can change the same day 3 times or more. I look at the Weather channel and it says 95 degrees today and in a few hours it says 85 and later on 90. I will end up around 100 on those days.

[Raquettedacker]

 I predict it will get cold and there will be ice for fishing...And it will snow........
And saw a red sky this morning and its cloudy with showers now......   

[ActiveTrapChecker]

I predict it will get cold and there will be ice for fishing...And it will snow........
And saw a red sky this morning and its cloudy with showers now......   

Red sky in the morning is a sailor’s warning....

[esox_xtm]

OK. Here then:

This rock is the perfect weather indicator, it
never fails. It is more accurate than your local
weather person. This rock is the living word and
is 100% correct. This is how it works:

a dry rock means fair weather.
a wet rock means it's raining.
a dusty rock means a dust storm.
a swaying rock means it's windy.
a shadow under the rock means it's sunny.
a white rock means it's snowing.
if the rock is jumping up and down, an
earthquake is upon us.
if the bottom of the rock is under water it's a
flood.

Gospel.

[Light liner]

They were right on for last year.

[esox_xtm]

They were right on for last year.

Farmers's Almanac or my rock? 

Sorry. Door was open 

[tm37]

No such thing as an early winter. It always begins December 21st... 

I guess the correct question would have been , can I walk on the water in fall?

[Light liner]

Hopefully, we were on ice here in northern vt in December last year.
Great for fishing, but hard on the wood pile.

[esox_xtm]

I guess the correct question would have been , can I walk on the water in fall?

You're a boatload of fun questions tm37  You can never walk on water unless you're the Second Coming which I don't believe is you. As for walking on ice, that's a loaded question too. For example, if I spill the entire contents of my cocktail on the floor and I'm not careful I'd be "walking on ice" in July. At this point my kids usually say something like, "c'mon Dad" 

OK, let's get serious. Depends on what part of the Ice Belt you're from. For where I'm at in WI the 2nd weekend in December is a fair bet. Sometimes it's been even a little before Thanksgiving. So it also depends on which part of the "Fall" you're thinking about.

As a reference to how far North this is Three Lakes is 45.7982° N. Farther north (bigger number) generally gets colder faster and smaller number colder later. Generally. Wild cards are if you live very close to big water like one of the Great Lakes where the lake effect can delay freezing for a certain distance inland. To find where you're at just Google <your location> latitude and you'll get a number for both latitude and longitude (east/west).

Last year we had great early ice and more ice than I've seen in several years. I'm cautiously optimistic that the weather pendulum has begun to swing back to more "normal" winters if there is such a thing anymore.

[smitty0312]

I usually don't buy into this but Last year the Almanac predicted a bad winter......we ended up having double snow over the average.......but the jet stream has everything to do with what we get....Tight Lines

[hays47]

Spring has sprung
Fall has fell
Winter is here
And is colder than
USUSAL

[Agronomist_at_IA]

It doesn't matter what any weather service says. I can look out my window in the morning and it can be total clouds and snowing and a few hours later it is toasty warm and all sun. There is no way to predict weather. Jet streams can change the same day 3 times or more. I look at the Weather channel and it says 95 degrees today and in a few hours it says 85 and later on 90. I will end up around 100 on those days.

Any prediction more then 3 days out goes off of a mixture of historical data, the southern oscillation of the oceans (el Nino/el Niña), and the 22yr sun cycle. Strength or weakness of events are hard to tell until they are Occuring. Throw in some random events like forest fires and it can change stuff pretty fast.

I think we are getting pretty decent at forecast, has computers get better with processing the mega data forecast will improve. It will never be 100% though.

[Spider1]

I don't trust the weather report for more than a few days out but they can predict a particular storm is going to impact a region in a week or 2 depending on the type of event, like a hurricane sweeping up the coast. But that's not what we are talking about. This is a prediction of a trend for the next several months or so based on data collected. They are actually getting pretty good at that. But. like Agro said, stuff can happen a couple months out that can effect the prediction. Basically, it just gives us something to argue over until the lake freezes up

[UFCreel]

All day yesterday. The weather guessers were predicting strong thunder storms for the late afternoon and into the evening. Not one clap of thunder. Not one drop of rain. Go figure.

[esox_xtm]

All day yesterday. The weather guessers were predicting strong thunder storms for the late afternoon and into the evening. Not one clap of thunder. Not one drop of rain. Go figure.

That's been the trend in local weather reporting for several years now. Forecast the most extreme, worst case scenario, which almost never happens.

One of two things happen: First, they're wrong and everyone is happy because it didn't snow 15 inches or blow 50 mph or rain 5 inches. OR they're right, everyone is miserable because of the extreme weather but the "meteorologist" says. "Hey, it's just my job. Can I help it if I'm right?" They can't lose.

I wish I had a job where if I was wrong everyone was happy. Ahahahaha! Esox was wrong, it was a beautiful day!

And no asking why meteorologists predict weather instead of studying meteors. 

[Chris338378]

For my area the Farmer's Almanac is more accurate than the weather people more often than not especially when it comes to the long range forecasts.  Regardless if it turns out the be right or wrong I'm stocking up on coal for the winter and so far I have three tons and still getting more, better safe than sorry.  Besides if I don't use it this year I'll have it for next winter.