Winter Weather for 2023/2024

[filetandrelease]

 Well I’ve never heard that 1 lol

[hardwater diehard]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/ar-AA1hGINt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1c1276feddde49ebb5bb75806bac63cf&ei=7#image=9

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853

[zcm_82]

That's also showing warm and dry here, which is in line with what NOAAs LT models have been showing the past couple months.

[hardwater diehard]

I have been following her for several season ...pretty much spot on in my area with her winter forcast.


https://www.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/08/rebeccas-2023-fall-outlook.html?fbclid=IwAR0EWYbQKICWT78KeBbnK-nk_vbqS-GbgXMKdQpgFULEK1OdFpRhZKTJ9Dg

PART 2

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-two.html?fbclid=IwAR3cAWcSlU_bgT6XGrL8coI7nZD3crKrTqUnnYaKxe7zt1uWAtQIrA3Z5tI

[thomasthepikehunter]

they were kinda right about this past winter. they predicted a warmer than normal winter, and it was.

Depends on where you were of course. I can't say I've ever seen such a duality as was the Dakota's and Minnesota. The dakota's had one of the craziest winters ever, there wasn't too many records we didn't break. Cold, snow, wind, ice. We had safe fishing ice for a full 5 months. If you were brave, I bet some in North Dakota were on ice from the first week of November, the last week in April. I came within an inch or two of needing an extension on my ice auger. We had a solid 40" of ice on many lakes at one point. By comparison, Minnesota wasn't really even safe even at Christmas time. It kind of was, but it was pretty sketch, and very sloppy. MN had a fairly warm November that never made ice. It wasn't so much the lack of cold though, but one big dump of snow at the worst time. They got plenty of snow after that, but nothing unusual.

I love ice fishing, but I really don't want to be ice fishing 2 weeks from now like I was last year. I swear just 3 weeks ago it was like 98F. I just want to enjoy a little fall for once. It doesn't seem too likely though, yesterday while out duck hunting I couln't break the shore ice by foot, it must have been 1" thick.

[missoulafish]

Great reads Diehard.

[ryguy80]

Depends on where you were of course. I can't say I've ever seen such a duality as was the Dakota's and Minnesota. The dakota's had one of the craziest winters ever, there wasn't too many records we didn't break. Cold, snow, wind, ice. We had safe fishing ice for a full 5 months. If you were brave, I bet some in North Dakota were on ice from the first week of November, the last week in April. I came within an inch or two of needing an extension on my ice auger. We had a solid 40" of ice on many lakes at one point. By comparison, Minnesota wasn't really even safe even at Christmas time. It kind of was, but it was pretty sketch, and very sloppy. MN had a fairly warm November that never made ice. It wasn't so much the lack of cold though, but one big dump of snow at the worst time. They got plenty of snow after that, but nothing unusual.

I love ice fishing, but I really don't want to be ice fishing 2 weeks from now like I was last year. I swear just 3 weeks ago it was like 98F. I just want to enjoy a little fall for once. It doesn't seem too likely though, yesterday while out duck hunting I couln't break the shore ice by foot, it must have been 1" thick.

Last season, I was out on December 10th, the earliest I can remember fishing in the Twin Cities metro area since I been doing this in 2005. Of course, it was a pretty small lake I was on, not even 200 acres, so it froze up fast.

[thomasthepikehunter]

Last season, I was out on December 10th, the earliest I can remember fishing in the Twin Cities metro area since I been doing this in 2005. Of course, it was a pretty small lake I was on, not even 200 acres, so it froze up fast.

Try a little west. I grew up in Wright county, and its a warm year if you don't have 4" of ice on most small and medium lakes late November. The big and deep lakes stay open another week or two. It's pretty much expected to be driving on lakes by Christmas. Heck, if you fish Buffalo lake, you drive cars out on 6" of ice! (don't be like those dummies) Somewhere in that 2015-2017 range I remember a year ice fishing Wright county like November 10th, and I don't risk it. I wait a minimum of 4" ice.

By comparison last year, I didn't even feel safe walking out on Christmas, I don't mess around with that slushy nonsense. I don't feel good about 12" of snow on top of 10" of slush/water, on top of 8" of ice. I don't think I've ever seen worse ice condition in that area that time of year. If you were out on the 10th I can only assume you beat the snow, or are way braver than I.

[OldSailor]

Here's the latest...... https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/meteorologists-just-released-snowfall-predictions-130000519.html

[zcm_82]

The new NOAA projections just dropped this morning... still looking like garbage here 

DJF projections

[hardwater diehard]

Most of my ice is made when the Polar Vortex works its way down and through my area .. some years that can happen early affording me enough ice to get out and stay out through most of  the season ..my disappointing seasons happen on warm years of thinner ice and heavy snowfall ...making it unsafe with slush conditions ..looks like I will be hitting it real hard in February ...AGAIN

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2023-11-15-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast-united-states

[hardwater diehard]

Another winter predicters take on it ...my head is officially spinning and exploding.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/official-el-ni%C3%B1o-forecast-above-average-snowfall-predicted-from-east-to-west/ar-AA1k3fd3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=ad821cca447448fdb2237a7e070872b2&ei=19

&t=3s

[missoulafish]

Every single forecast is different  Was on the ice this time last year, 55 degrees today.

[hardwater diehard]

[hardwater diehard]

PART 2

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-two.html?fbclid=IwAR3cAWcSlU_bgT6XGrL8coI7nZD3crKrTqUnnYaKxe7zt1uWAtQIrA3Z5tI

PART 3    very promising in my area

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-three.html?fbclid=IwAR1ASwSM0WlTahRasKjZCI40WkQlRT7d24m1oJjFnXz2mL_PkHzPHDS6H9M

[hardwater diehard]

https://soundcloud.com/shacktalk/202324-winter-forecast-with-meteorologist-adam-lorch


https://www.northernnewsnow.com/2023/10/10/first-alert-2023-2024-winter-forecast/?fbclid=IwAR0s6yYJ_8zcmhBbw_KJZThv_Kz8oEJLI5ydd7FOWHV5AD7zcN8sNXoIGgg

[hardwater diehard]

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2023-11-28-december-temperature-precipitation-outlook

[thomasthepikehunter]

Huh, so they keep changing the forecast. It's almost like weather can't be accurately predicted past 4-5 days. Imagine that. 

[SnoHam13]

Northern Houghton/Keweenaw county
going to be winging it this year
our local weather forecaster passed away last week [john Dee]
as of 12/1 we only had 12.5'' of snow [that's not much]
day time temps around 40's night time in the 20's
it will cool the water down but making ice will see

[hardwater diehard]

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd1045012.html

[thomasthepikehunter]

I haven't checked any lakes yet, but I bet we will start to see some fisherman in our area, and I bet in Minnesota and ND as well. It was looking good, but now the forecast has warm next week, one day may even hit 50. I'm thinking it won't hurt too much, assuming its only a few day. I doubt any lakes will open back up. Might be able to find some 4" ice on some lakes this weekend, so this is a fairly normal year so far.

[SLAYERFISH]

So a lake I iced last year on Nov. 21st, Was ice fishable on Nov. 27th this year.  NOT much difference.

[thomasthepikehunter]

We are weeks behind last year, but that's because last year was record book any way you look at it. On a typical year my area for typical prairie lakes is early December for good safe 4"+ of ice on more than just bays. There's always that one guy who scoots out on the 2" of ice in a bay somewhere though. I wouldn't be surprised if someone didn't try ice fishing that cold snap back around Halloween.

[hardwater diehard]

[SnoHam13]

so far this year 12.5'' lake effect which is low for us

we average 300'' + - so its going to be low amount of snow fall

the good side is it will make good ice with a low amount of slush on top

might even be able to fish at places the DNR don't plow out the parking lots this year

[dbaddave]

Is El Nino supposed to be warmer this year?

[glenwyo]

Is El Nino supposed to be warmer this year?

It depends on part of the country you live. This was from NOAA: "During strong El Nino events, average winter temperature favors warmer than normal conditions across the northern tier of most of the nation and colder than normal conditions over most of the southern states."

[hardwater diehard]

[zcm_82]

Still crap here... we've been running 5-10° above normal most of the month so far.

It was 52° today, and supposed to be about the same tomorrow. There's not a single high temp below freezing in the 10 day forecast

It's been quite a few years since we had a completely ice free winter in these parts, but the way it's shaping up so far we might be on the way to another.

[SnoHam13]

the 10 day does not look good up here

Gale Warning +1 More
Tonight
Showers/Wind Late
--
/40°
37%
W 24 mph
Fri 15
Rain
43°
/34°
94%
WNW 16 mph
Sat 16
AM Rain/Snow Showers
42°
/37°
74%
ESE 11 mph
Sun 17
Rain/Snow
39°
/22°
41%
W 12 mph
Mon 18
Mostly Cloudy
24°
/21°
17%
N 17 mph
Tue 19
Partly Cloudy
35°
/29°
1%
SW 12 mph
Wed 20
Mostly Cloudy
34°
/27°
17%
NNE 9 mph
Thu 21
Cloudy
34°
/29°
6%
ESE 10 mph
Fri 22
Partly Cloudy
37°
/32°
23%
SW 10 mph
Sat 23
Partly Cloudy
40°
/32°
10%
W 11 mph
Sun 24
Rain/Snow Showers
41°
/32°
48%
SW 12 mph
Mon 25
Snow Showers
37°
/29°
40%
NW 13 mph
Tue 26
Mostly Cloudy
37°
/29°
21%
NW 12 mph
Wed 27
Mostly Cloudy
36°
/30°
11%
WNW 11 mph
Thu 28
Partly Cloudy
37°
/29°
10%
WNW 11 mph