Ice Growth Spreadsheet

[dickerson_jared]

I will be updating this on Mondays throughout the winter. I have developed a spreadsheet for rough early season ice growth that I've been using the last couple of seasons. It works on the theory that it takes 15 freezing degrees in 24 hours to make 1 inch of ice. I have found that it is pretty accurate until ice reaches 6 or so inches of thickness. The spreadsheet works on the input of WeatherUnderground, Weather.com, and Accuweather forecasts that are averaged into highs and lows for the day for the area I live. The Rightmost column represents theoretical inches of ice growth. I will note that there is no way in the spreadsheet to factor in things such as wind or snow cover and the effect it has on ice growth. This first chart is for forecasted temps on the 12th - 26th with recorded highs and lows for earlier in the month.

[esoxnepa]

Nice work.  We will have to see what the storm coming on Thursday through Friday does.  It does sound like that might be rain, then followed up by a nice cold snap after it passes.

[cor2016]

So if I understand your spreadsheet correct, the number bottom right is the inches of ice or ice growth?

[dickerson_jared]

So if I understand your spreadsheet correct, the number bottom right is the inches of ice or ice growth?

That is correct. The right most column are predicted inches per week the rightmost column at the bottom is predicted inches for the month.

[Steidyj]

Hey Jared,
I've used this method since finding it a couple years back, never inputting it into a spreadsheet, until yours gave me inspiration. Thanks for posting this, I should have ~ 3-4 inches by Christmas within an hour of driving!

Jake

[wryan]

Nice work on the spreadsheet!  What area does the weather data come from? 

[dickerson_jared]

Nice work on the spreadsheet!  What area does the weather data come from?

I manually take an average of the 1 month forecasts for Coudersport, PA from WeatherUnderground, Weather.com, and Accuweather. 

[cor2016]

Thank you for explaining that further, this topic has me thinking now

[wryan]

Thanks, I’ll compare that to my weather, but I bet it’s close.

[Iceman7474]

With the current temp forcast,  gonna have to up date the spread sheet! Santa is bringing us some ice for Christmas!

[subtlehustle76]

Cloud cover especially at night plays a larger factor than you think.

[dickerson_jared]

Cloud cover especially at night plays a larger factor than you think.

I fully agree and I'm working on a way to weight the average temperature based on weather factors other than temperature. I just haven't figured the formula out yet. I'm open to any suggestions that folks have to make this thing better.

[dickerson_jared]

Monday 12-19-2022 Update, forecasts have changed drastically.

[wryan]

They seem to be cooling back down….at one point I think Fridays high at my place was 47.

[Steidyj]

The warming pattern seems to persist even after the cold snap on christmas eve. Looks like we have 4 days of ice making temperatures followed by a week of nothing below freezing.

[wryan]

I see that warm up with rain now…..I hadn’t looked far enough out.  I guess it’s wait and see……

[RuttNutt]

Depends where you are................... .I was walking on 4-6” of solid ice last night(checking ice thickness) on a lake in the Poconos. Foot of snow on the ground(not on the ice) and temp of 19* at 10:30 pm. This morning it was 16* at my house at 6am and the lake is usually 4-5* colder there...........

[wryan]

We had a low of 15 last night, but I’m not sure what time it got there.  We have 3 inches of ice on the ground, I saw places where the elk were walking on top of it.  I don’t think any lakes nearby have much ice yet.  I’m closest to black Moshannon and not that far from bald Eagle lake…..

It sounds like you may be fishing soon if the weather cooperates. 

[RuttNutt]

There were a few old holes I saw walking around out there so somebody was fishing already! Then a buddy went up there yesterday on a nearby lake and he said it was 6” and solid everywhere he drilled............. 

[wryan]

I’m too much of a Nancy to be one of the first guys out.  I’d rather swim in the summer…lol  6” everywhere and I’ll get braver.

[RuttNutt]

I’m too much of a Nancy to be one of the first guys out.  I’d rather swim in the summer…lol  6” everywhere and I’ll get braver.

LOL! 🤣🤣🤣  Nothing wrong with that! 😉

[dickerson_jared]

Last update for December and an early look into January doesn't inspire much hope. If you can get out this week before the rain, get it while the getting is good.

[dickerson_jared]

Final look at what transpired in December

Early look at the better part of January

[dickerson_jared]

Another Monday, another forecast that doesn't' inspire any hope for this season getting any better.

[dickerson_jared]

I'm a day late with the update, but things are finally looking better. Don't loose hope yet.

[tackleshack]

I'm a day late with the update, but things are finally looking better. Don't loose hope yet.

Thanks for doing this.  Our area has held onto ice better than most, but this has been super interesting to follow!

Don

[dickerson_jared]

Note: Snow on top of existing thin ice will dramatically slow the growth of the ice sheet. I currently have no way to factor that into the spreadsheet.
First an outlook of what is left of January, then an early outlook on February.

[dickerson_jared]

1 good week of ice building then back to around a net 0 pattern.

[Mknott]

Everyone's gotta try to get out on February 11th!!!!

[dickerson_jared]

Finally got out a couple times, that cold blast might have been our season. Might be okay for next weekend as long as the nights dip down and lock up the slop every night. Rain will hurt us.