Ice formation calculations??

[Dickbakers]

For years I've tried computing freezing degree days to guess ice formation.  Does anybody have luck forecasting ice thickness on your local ponds? 
Dick

[jigmaster5]

There is a formula...

FDD = "Freezing Degree Days"

FDD = 32F - Average Daily Temp (period)

So, once a thin layer of ice forms on top, 1" of ice growth per 15 FDD.

The "thin layer" of ice on top is the key here - otherwise too much variability from stuff like wind, acres, elevation, depth, currents, etc, etc.


In general (& I'm sure you know this already), small, shallow ponds in the woods at high elevations freeze first. 

[hardwater diehard]

I am always amazed at how ice is formed in front of my buddys landing ...one day it could be 3 inches of ice ...and then based on the below charts/formula a day or two later ...it should of gained an inch at best ...nope good solid 6" or more  ...NO to answer your question ..but I will take it.



https://www.outdoorcanada.ca/how-fast-does-your-lake-make-ice/

[Kilsdonk]

I'm an engineer and this has me interested ... jigmaster where did you find that formula?

as stated there are a lot of factors that would play into this but you could rule out a lot of assumptions to base it on a localized area... but to have a real formula to account for everything would have to be modeled with historical data and current forecast... would be sweet though!

[lowaccord66]

Noaa has a section of the site where they literally predoct ice growth.  Not many people use it, but I do. 

[CL_Outdoors]

I've used the FDD method for the last few years and more times than not it is pretty accurate.

Jigmaster is right tho, you have to have the first half inch - full inch locked up and then you can use the formula to estimate how much buildup you will have.

Diehard, I've had the same experience with the estimate I have on paper showing 1 inch and then i get out there and its actually 3, but think I know what I did wrong. I was simply averaging out the high and low for each day in the forecast.

What I realized is that if the high/low for a given day is 34/16, the average is not always going to be 25. It could be above 30 for only one hour out of the day, which skews the average. If you averaged it by the hour, it could significantly bring the average down or up.

SO, what I started doing is getting the reported average temp on wunderground the day AFTER, which is a more accurate telling of what the days average temp is.

When you do your calculations this year, take it day by day and look at the actual reported average rather than averaging the high/lows for the coming days in the forecast.

[Kilsdonk]

well the more I research the more I find. I will start doing these calcs. myself and check back in next year with my findings!

[TheCrittaC]

Water is densest at 4 degrees Celsius, so the whole lake pretty much has to cool to 4 degrees Celsius before the water on the top can undergo the phase transition to a solid, which requires releasing a large amount of heat.

[hardwater diehard]

Little off topic ...but encouraging

https://usicecenter.gov/Products/ImsCharts

Noaa has a section of the site where they literally predoct ice growth.  Not many people use it, but I do. 

Do you have a link ?

[dr cusk]

I made a quick excel sheet a few years back for this where you can plug in the highs and lows from the weather forecast and get an estimate of ice growth.  I added a quick reference daily growth chart too which has the expected ice growth in 2 degree increments.  For instance a day that saw a 16 degree high and a 0 degree low would avg 8 degrees thus producing around 1.6 inches of ice.  This is NOT an exact science as there are a million contributing factors but this gets you pretty close to a baseline.
Screenshot below as I wasn't able to figure out how to attach the excel file on here but I can share to anyone if you wanted to message me with your email info.

[lowaccord66]

Little off topic ...but encouraging

https://usicecenter.gov/Products/ImsCharts


Do you have a link ?

Sent via pm.  With first ice being super hard to come by I like keeping this a bit closer to the chest until mid season.

[Dickbakers]

Did comps for the next week.  Indicates I should have another
2.4" of ice by Christmas.  Couldn't check yesterday because rain opened the shoreline.  Lack of snow cover should help.  I'll
wait for six inches for even my small ponds and lakes.
Dick

[fishingidjit]

Did comps for the next week.  Indicates I should have another
2.4" of ice by Christmas.  Couldn't check yesterday because rain opened the shoreline.  Lack of snow cover should help.  I'll
wait for six inches for even my small ponds and lakes.
Dick

It would be nice to see no snow for a few weeks to get some good ice built up

[jigmaster5]

I'm an engineer and this has me interested ... jigmaster where did you find that formula?

I remember seeing an ice calculation a while ago, but I don't remember the original source - so I searched it on the web.

Some additional references from bard.google.com:

[hardwater diehard]

Good Read(s)

http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/;jsessionid=CF2DB1C16B9C1F6F8AE1A0C17FAC06EE.v5-web011?clickid=1dvQfJRbLxyPTBuwHWV0SWgoUkH0ofz5zSQNWI0&irgwc=1&im_rewards=1&utm_medium=pp&utm_source=Wildfire%20Systems&utm_campaign=Wildfire%20Systems&channel=pp&subchannel=390418&source=Wildfire%20Systems

[Dickbakers]

It would be nice to see no snow for a few weeks to get some good ice built up

No snow in our forecast until well after Christmas.  Ski area are making snow night and day!!
Dick