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Pennsylvania => Ice Fishing Pennsylvania => Topic started by: jaeger80 on Jan 03, 2020, 07:49 AM
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If you sift through the jargon, it sounds like we may have some hope yet...
Information taken from: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
"Impacts
I feel like it is déjà-vu all over again with a strong stratospheric polar vortex (PV) in December leading to a positive AO and a relatively mild pattern across the Northern Hemisphere as we head into January. Reminds me most recently of winters 2015/16 and 2016/17. In 2015/16 possibly the combination of a westerly quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) and super El Nino lead to an anomalously strong, possibly even an all-time record strong PV that I would argue contributed to an overall mild winter. January was surprisingly cold in the Eastern US given the record strong PV in large part because a cyclone penetrated unusually far north into the central Arctic bringing with it anomalous heat and humidity that triggered a tropospheric negative AO event. Eventually though in February and especially March the PV became more disrupted and contributed to at least episodic more severe winter weather.
In 2016/17, the PV started off record weak in the fall and at one point the models were predicting one of the earliest major warmings (where the zonal mean zonal wind at 10hPa and 60°N reverses from positive to negative) ever observed in November. But the major warming never materialized the PV quickly strengthened, coupled with the surface and the AO was positive in January with relatively mild temperatures across the NH. Again, the PV became more perturbed in February and contributed to more episodic severe winter weather in February and March.
This winter the PV weakened in November heading into December but the PV weakening fell well short of major warming status, despite model forecasts to the contrary. The PV has since recovered and has been on the stronger side of normal and this has coupled with the surface contributing to a positive AO to at least kick-off January accompanied by a relatively mild pattern across the NH. In the Eastern US the mild patter will be interrupted briefly by colder temperatures early next week. I would attribute this interruption in the mild pattern to a relatively minor and short-lived reflective PV disruption. But once the forcing from the PV disruption abates by late next week, it makes sense to me that Madden Julian Oscillation forcing should dominate North American weather. MJO is predicted to be in a fairly robust phase five which favors ridging south of the Aleutians troughing in western North America and more ridging in the Eastern US. However, Canada is predicted to remain cold and storms traversing North America can tap into this reservoir of cold resulting in at least short-term cold air outbreaks. Also I do believe that the models are overly sensitive to tropical forcing and they could adjust colder with time.
But like in 2016 and again 2017 I expect the PV to become more disrupted. Increasing at least episodic severe winter weather. Our polar vortex model is predicting a weakening of the PV from the very end of the second into the third week of January. Though I am certain the predicted weakening in the model is overdone, the model at least usually matches the trend in the PV. Also based on what I see from the ECMWF stratospheric winds a much more defined reflective layer is predicted to form in the stratosphere so if nothing else I would expect more reflective PV disruptions. So, though January looks to start off relatively mild in the Eastern US or at least seasonable given the cold air from the reflective event next week, I expect an increasing risk of cold weather related to PV disruptions. The risk for cold weather is probably aided by the warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern North Pacific that favors mid-tropospheric ridging in the region.
Whatever probability of cold weather that I see for the Eastern US, I anticipate lower probabilities for Europe with the possible exception of the Mediterranean region. Outside of the higher elevations, Europe has seen little winter weather this year. And with the AO predicted to be positive into the foreseeable future, there is little reason to expect that to change. Though the GFS is predicting higher probabilities of snowfall across Central and Eastern Europe than I might have expected given the positive AO. And without a large PV disruption, I have a hard time imagining an extended period of winter weather across Europe for the reminder of the winter.
Admittedly I don’t have some insightful analysis as to why I expect the PV to become more disrupted with time other than to point to other recent winters. It does seem blocking in the North Atlantic sector would go a long way to disrupting the PV and none is apparent in the short term. Also, I would say a major warming is not likely this winter given that we had a major warming each of the past two winters. Three winters in a row is not unprecedented but fairly uncommon."
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Whoa.
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Yeah...I'm looking for hope...
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**censored** !!!!
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Man that was tough reading gave me a headache!!! These up and down winters have been going on for eions.I started ice fishing when I was 16 im now and old 70!!! there were winters were we had ice almost two feet thick 1977 was one of those years weather people called it 2nd coming of the ice ageLOL. then we had some winters where there was little or no safe ice kinda like now it varies and goes in cycles.there no doubt climate is changing it does almost every single day.We will get ice again I just hope im around long enough to get out againLOL
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We were in Niagara last year in January (not fishing, hockey tournaments) and it was really cold. Falls frozen, river frozen etc.. Only to drive back east to see most of the lakes barely capped except for the usual cold spots in NEPA.
Fingers crossed. It will get cold and stays cold so we have more options one where to go and can be are fishing hard water into March.
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I don't know what all that means, heck for all I know it could be the combination to Fort Knocks but one thing I do know is I have a major case of ice and cold withdrawal. At this rate I'm going to take up a collection to get a tanker of liquid nitrogen to freeze up a lake or two. Anyone want to chip in? :tipup:
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I don't know what all that means, heck for all I know it could be the combination to Fort Knocks but one thing I do know is I have a major case of ice and cold withdrawal. At this rate I'm going to take up a collection to get a tanker of liquid nitrogen to freeze up a lake or two. Anyone want to chip in? :tipup:
Tell me where to sign.
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The polar vortex is going to weaken and become more egg shaped , around 20 of Jan. . That shape will allow cold air now trapped in the arctic to spill into the eastern part of the mid west and north east and a whole pattern shift will become prevalent , which should make ice very quickly in the north eastern part of the country . On the ice by the last week of the month .
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The polar vortex is going to weaken and become more egg shaped , around 20 of Jan. . That shape will allow cold air now trapped in the arctic to spill into the eastern part of the mid west and north east and a whole pattern shift will become prevalent , which should make ice very quickly in the north eastern part of the country . On the ice by the last week of the month .
Sounds like a plan to me. But then how long will it last?
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Another tease ice making weather yesterday and last night.....hear comes spring....rollercoaste r winter.
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Sounds like a plan to me. But then how long will it last?
Take it to the bank ! Usually a pattern shift last at lest 2 weeks and could last till March .
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Looks like cold is coming after the 16th. Next few days between now and then are looking really bad for ice making with rain and warm temps. Let’s hope what we have hoods up and tightened up for the 25th.
These mild winters only make everyone sick, literally and for ice fisherman figuratively.
Here in the Southeast corner of PA the grass is still green. 🤬
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Looks like cold is coming after the 16th. Next few days between now and then are looking really bad for ice making with rain and warm temps. Let’s hope what we have hoods up and tightened up for the 25th.
These mild winters only make everyone sick, literally and for ice fisherman figuratively.
Here in the Southeast corner of PA the grass is still green. 🤬
This keeps up i might have to mow again ::)
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This keeps up i might have to mow again ::)
I wish i had that problem ... my dogs turned my yard to mud ... complete mud ... I want a hard freeze just so i don't have to wipe their paws after every trip to the yard
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This keeps up i might have to mow again ::)
ouch december 27 2019 had mower out in a short sleeve shirt trying to pick up falls leaves :%$#!: winter came an gone, came an gone, came, and now going again going,going,gone!!!!!
still dont have the 2020 license yet :cookoo:
GOD BLESS
mo
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me neither mo didnt even get my crap together yet.
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Doesn't look promising. I'm going to start jigging in the bathtub!!
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ice attic let us know how you do.and which is better the back or near the drain?
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Lol. :o :tipup:
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If the weather wizards are right (I wont hold my breath), it looks like we'll start making ice Thursday night... Cross your fingers.
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If the weather wizards are right (I wont hold my breath), it looks like we'll start making ice Thursday night... Cross your fingers.
Ill cross all my fingers ;)
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I like what the future looks like in the forecast. Unfortunately I might be out for a long time with a back issue that I cannot get rid of. I been walking with a cane at times and I'm too young for that :(
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Not good Bigfoot
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Ill cross my fingers and toes.
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Doesn't look promising. I'm going to start jigging in the bathtub!!
Hopefully you don't catch any brown trout :sick:
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Starting this Thursday they're calling for lows in the teens which is good but the problem is they're calling for 5 to 8 inches of snow on Saturday during the day and then another 1 to 3 inches of snow Saturday night. Hopefully we don't get all that snow because it'll mess up the ice making. If we do get it the best thing to happen is it sinks the ice that's formed and floods the snow.
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Starting this Thursday they're calling for lows in the teens which is good but the problem is they're calling for 5 to 8 inches of snow on Saturday during the day and then another 1 to 3 inches of snow Saturday night. Hopefully we don't get all that snow because it'll mess up the ice making. If we do get it the best thing to happen is it sinks the ice that's formed and floods the snow.
Was thinking the same exact thing, kinda hoping not too much ice forms before that snow hits and if it does I hope it's less than a half inch so it sinks that ice. Actually think further south might be alright because I don't think your goin to get much ice to form before that big storm.
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I saw that snow forecast and was thinking the same thing. Fortunately most of the lakes and ponds in my area got opened up with all of the warm temps, rain and then the wind finished the ice off. Hopefully the snow doesn't mess up the areas that still have ice. Places that have deteriorated ice and snow on top could make for some very interesting conditions. Stay safe everyone.
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even if a lake is capped over, 5-8" of snow isn't going to hurt much. Especially if there's a wind blowing to clear some off the lake. All it will do is make you use yer Smitty sled!!! Now all ya gotta do is find a lake that still has decent ice on it.
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even if a lake is capped over, 5-8" of snow isn't going to hurt much. Especially if there's a wind blowing to clear some off the lake. All it will do is make you use yer Smitty sled!!! Now all ya gotta do is find a lake that still has decent ice on it.
I agree Spider! And now they’re saying only 3-6”. And starting tomorrow night the temps are gonna be COLD!
In fact I like what I see for the next week or so!
(https://i.postimg.cc/sv9BPMwQ/0-C27-E55-F-CABD-4-C66-9-C48-EE4-AAF6-B33-C1.png) (https://postimg.cc/sv9BPMwQ)
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If the lake is capped over only an inch or two with 6" of snow on top, remember that is a lot more weight on the ice which makes it dangerous. Plus it doesn't take much snow to insulate the ice on a lake and prevent from growing thicker. Better hope for strong winds.
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If the lake is capped over only an inch or two with 6" of snow on top, remember that is a lot more weight on the ice which makes it dangerous. Plus it doesn't take much snow to insulate the ice on a lake and prevent from growing thicker. Better hope for strong winds.
This is my concern. The insulative effect of the snow preventing the ice from building at the rate we want.
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This is my concern. The insulative effect of the snow preventing the ice from building at the rate we want.
SLUSH!!! :o :o :o
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I don’t think the snow will be a worry this week. It looks like it should cap over this weekend and the little rain might help clear off any snow that might be left and then making ice all next week! I get back into town Thursday and plan to be out there Thursday night on safe ice... or hope too
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Jack frost is on his way. This is like waiting for Christmas day all over again. Stay safe guys and gals.
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Here in SEPA The forecast is only a little snow changing to sleet & rain. Hope they are right. & we get good clear ice after the storm is over.
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Here in SEPA The forecast is only a little snow changing to sleet & rain. Hope they are right. & we get good clear ice after the storm is over.
Ontalaunee might actually see some safe ice soon.
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Copt.
Looks promising for ice on the big O and there NE lakes should lock up nice with the below freezing temps through next Friday and some lows in the teens at night.
Good luck to everyone and stay safe.
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Can't see the snow hurting us this weekend. Many lakes are now without any ice and if you get the 6 inches, it wont bother any base. Looks good upcoming week for ice making. Hoping to get out somewhere next Saturday. Nez
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Think this weekend is probably a NO GO. But should be good for next weekend!
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Up here in Up State New York we have zero with a wind chills -20 ....
(https://i.postimg.cc/Cz6h9J2G/1-CD46-ED3-FBF4-494-A-AE74-2-C09706-F7-B49.png) (https://postimg.cc/Cz6h9J2G)
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Nothing seems to have locked up in southern Luzerne county as of today. I believe it’ll probably cap or start to cap most places tonight with the calm wind and low temps. Hopefully by next weekend some of our more local haunts will be safe. I’m hoping for zero snow not just for the ice but it’s gonna end up postponing a gig for my band which means I’ll probably have to play it another night when we have safe ice ! Lol
Fingers crossed .
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Think this weekend is probably a NO GO. But should be good for next weekend!
Hoping the same! Might need to look into getting some live bait soon!
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finaly got my 2020 ice fishin license.you say ice fishing license, yes bout the only time i can fish :o too busy rest of the time and gettin older aint helping things.might be a jiggy guy this year,NOT!the olman in the mirror talking trash lol tipups standing at attention inda bucket waiting to see action,SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON :icefish:
GOD BLESS YA
mo
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Well, doesn't look like ice any time soon in the sw part I'd the state. 3 cold days followed by mid 40s until February. I can't remember a year where we actually built ice in February. This winter sucks.
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Yea the forecast changed here in SEPA too. Last night was only 21 . Not the 16 they were calling for. I rode by 1 of our first to freeze lakes & it's all open water. Rassafratza !!!
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I googled ice growth on a lake and it looks like we need the average temp to be in the 20's for a week for the shores in NEPA to refreeze. Forget about fishing Luzerne County for a few weeks. How are things in Lac, Pike, Monroe and Wayne County? I just filled up my gas tank.
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finaly got my 2020 ice fishin license.you say ice fishing license, yes bout the only time i can fish :o too busy rest of the time and gettin older aint helping things.might be a jiggy guy this year,NOT!the olman in the mirror talking trash lol tipups standing at attention inda bucket waiting to see action,SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON :icefish:
GOD BLESS YA
mo
Mo,
you must be eligable for senior lifetime license by now old man. Got mine 2 years ago. Too bad we can't use them yet this season. wishin['and hopin'. I missed the two day window when we could have fished right before Christmas.
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Here at a pond near Lake Shohola (Elevation here around 1400), it was fully open last night, and still about a third open today.
I'm a bit conservative on ice conditions, so I don't expect to be out on the ice next weekend. The forecast seems like it should build around 4" of ice this week, not taking into account the springs. Oh well, I'll just keep measuring as it builds.
How are things in Lac, Pike, Monroe and Wayne County? I just filled up my gas tank.
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Mo,
you must be eligable for senior lifetime license by now old man. Got mine 2 years ago. Too bad we can't use them yet this season. wishin['and hopin'. I missed the two day window when we could have fished right before Christmas.
ha ha got a couple years togo for that life time license!also missed the window due to pro cast ination lol was enjoying the beautiful weather we were having here in SWPA had mower out 12 27 19 picking up leaves.also working on draining pool cover lol all springtime chores not winter stuff :o been fighting AIT its debilitating having autoimmune flare ups been studing Dr. izzabella wentz on how to combat AIT/autoimmune.hope your aging well and every one have a healthful ice fishing 2020
GOD BLESS YA"all
mo
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Good news is the snow they called for never really developed. We got like an inch of snow followed by hours of sleet. It stayed pretty cold and after today it looks great. I’m gonna take a ride today and look a few places over. Report to follow.
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Tusc has ice covering all but a two acre or so patch in the center. Only about an inch of ice by the shore. Temps are falling here. I’ll try to keep checking through the week.
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Mr. Charlie......thanks for the info. Your reports are appreciated.
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Anytime. I would’ve added some pictures but it was pretty dark still. Lol
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now we need the wind to stop blowin,howlin,screamin ETC then its gonna make ice,its close to booger freezin out there lol
GOD
BLESS
mo
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This is such a tease. The long range forecast is depressing.
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This is such a tease. The long range forecast is depressing.
You said it.
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There is gonna be lots of ice for the coming weeks but you may have to fish above I 80 .
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You said it.
X2
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There is gonna be lots of ice for the coming weeks but you may have to fish above I 80 .
I don't know. I just looked at the 10 Day forecast for Wellsboro, and it didn't look promising. Highs in the upper 30s or low 40s and lows in the upper 20s. Not a big fan. If they already had 8" or 10" of ice, then I would think they could weather the storm pretty well - but it sounds like most of their lakes are still building toward safe ice.
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https://www.cleveland.com/outdoors/2020/01/lake-erie-walleye-still-biting-trout-stocking-continues-fishing-report-for-jan-17.html?outputType=amp
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There is gonna be lots of ice for the coming weeks but you may have to fish above I 80 .
Your gonna have to go further than north of 80 I fear. I’m right at 80 where I live and your still talking fifty plus miles north of me to where I’ve found any safe ice this year and even that fell out this last warm spell. I’m hoping it rebuilds enough to fish a day or so before next week. Then it looks too warm to build any ice in the extended. I hope your right but I’m thinking about the boat again.
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even geoengineering aint workin,its warmin up here already wind is from the west north west turning toward south. another volcano,australia on fire and a lot of hot air in our senate is causing a shift in the polar vortex.trees are budding,robins are plucking worms,and GOD is still on his throne,soooooooooooooo
PRAISE GOD
mo
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Amen Mo
Ice fisherman’s prayer - May God make ice, keep us safe, grant us a few fish and the health to do it again year after year.
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i can say yes and amen to that
GOD BLESS
mo
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I just spent 8 days in up State New York in the Adirondacks had good ice on all the lakes I fished got out 5 days fishing was okay for perch and gills...had one break off big Splake I think that what they call them temperature was. 7 below this morning...a great trip
(https://i.postimg.cc/LnQm8rth/1-BED9-DFB-DDA4-4-BD7-9-A3-A-EFC649-D2-AFB2.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/LnQm8rth)
(https://i.postimg.cc/MMYS24Z6/451-DA564-D617-4412-A552-21838-B9-CF4-E5.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/MMYS24Z6)
(https://i.postimg.cc/MfK8WDXy/E856-BF06-6-CE1-4-B47-A7-CC-E575-DBDEDA0-F.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/MfK8WDXy)
(https://i.postimg.cc/Yvwj7cMg/9-C8-DED17-AC28-4331-816-C-5-C292-BC69-A98.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/Yvwj7cMg)
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It was 10° this morning at my house and it's been in the low teens for almost a week with day time temps right around freezing and below a few days. I took a ride up through Mt.Pocono and passed a few lakes and they were all capped over and looking good. I didn't have any gear with me so I didn't stop at Brady's to check it out but I'm bet there is ice on it. I wanna check Promised Land this afternoon. I'll see if the Mrs can live without me for an afternoon...
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I have a friend who lives in the northern tier. He is kindly going to give me a first person report this afternoon on a few of those lakes. I guess the theme of this thread is still “fingers crossed”.
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NEVER GIVE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;) I'm taking Friday off to fish before the next snowstorm hits! ;D
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I wanna icefish in the snowstorm! Let it snow... I got a Smitty sled!!! ;D
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....
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I wanna icefish in the snowstorm! Let it snow... I got a Smitty sled!!! ;D
I just want to fish...
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I wanna icefish in the snowstorm! Let it snow... I got a Smitty sled!!! ;D
From what I saw on the news tonight it's not looking too good, the weather guy said it's supposed to start as freezing rain then work it's way over to snow. With that on top of the thickness of the ice my hopes aren't too high for safe ice this weekend.
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WNEP just said mostly rain followed by a cold front. Fingers crossed.
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Mother Nature is sure throwing us a lot of CURVEBALLS this season! ::)
I may take off and try to get in a day of good fishing tomorrow before the SLOP comes in!
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Has anyone seen any reports on any lakes with fishable ice yet? I just landed in Pittsburgh and am willing to drive to any lake with enough ice. Just have not seen any reports showing fishable ice yet.
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Lots of rain predicted for Friday and Friday night with amounts 1/2" to 3/4" , couple that with a strong SE breeze and that,s going to break down any ice that formed very quickly. Long range above average temps forecast as well.
(https://i.postimg.cc/ppG4NL0p/weather.png) (https://postimg.cc/ppG4NL0p)
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I'm not even gonna look at that! Your handle should be BUZZ KILL! ::) ;)
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With February just around the corner.....I could care less at this point....rain,wind,and higher temps will destroy the little we have....not being pessimistic.....but open water fishing has been good a couple weeks ago....buying a boat has been the best investment the last 2years....getting 60 big perch on a January day isn't a bad thing....hope for ice but mildly temps aren't so bad either.....