Winter trends scoop from a local meteorologist

[taxi1]

Got the skinny from Sam Lashley at the National Weather Service office in North Webster. For what it's worth this is what has to say about what we can look forward to this winter:

I actually think the rest of our winter will be a lot like what we have experienced so far. Ups and downs with temperature and many more strong pacific systems with heavy precipitation as they tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Timing of each system with warmer air or colder air will dictate the precipitation type. This is all due to the ongoing moderate La Nina, which favors above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures in our area. The above normal temperature forecast can be deceiving though, since normal highs are in the 20s and normal lows in the teens for January and early February. Thus we may be above normal, but still get snow.

[A- bomb]

weathermen and salesmen,

If their lips are moving their probably lying 

 

[taxi1]

weathermen and salesmen,

If their lips are moving their probably lying 

 

And just like salesmen they get no respect. 

[crappie66]

And just like salesmen they get no respect. 

How can you respect someone who is only correct 50% of the time?

[jerryklop]

Yea, I heard something one the radio that weathermen are 75% of the time wrong in their forecasting.

[jhc]

 
 
 
                    Its got to get colder It can't stay like this all winter ??
                                  jhc

[taxi1]

How can you respect someone who is only correct 50% of the time?

Depends on what you consider "wrong." Sorry guys I have a beef with picking on meteorologists as I studied meteorology in the Air Force and washed out. (Not talking about people that present the weather on the news channels who are not meteorologists). Those that make the grade in the Air Force are the cream of the crop and even with a 138 I.Q. I was not one of them. Forecasting can be very, very, difficult; weather can change on a dime, and there is some serious math and computer models involved. A meteorologist has computer models to pick from but he has to decide which one is closest to what he thinks will occur. Even with the computer models, satellites, radar etc. he is doing the same thing a physican does, he is making an educated guess.

If we had no weather forecasting do you think we'd be better off? I don't think so. Picking on the weatherman is almost as dumb as blaming him for the weather as if he has control over it.

[iceputz]

meteorologist use words like around 50 degrees and 1 to 4 inches and 30% chance of precip.  these are all words and phrases that cover anybody.  if it dont rain they are covered, if its only 40 that is around 50 and if we get 3 inches instead of 1 they are covered.  its gonna get cold its just how cold?

[taxi1]

meteorologist use words like around 50 degrees and 1 to 4 inches and 30% chance of precip.  these are all words and phrases that cover anybody.  if it dont rain they are covered, if its only 40 that is around 50 and if we get 3 inches instead of 1 they are covered.  its gonna get cold its just how cold?

That just shows you how difficult it can be. There's no conspiracy here. It's just tough to predict weather.

[abishop]

I used to get a kick out of the big busted blonde who used to see a rain cloud and say it may rain . A sun and the warm weather is here. All one has to do is sit down and watch where the fronts are coming from. Check out the wind and one can predict their own weather. Probably just as accurate as our own weathermen. No offense.

[crappie66]

I used to get a kick out of the big busted blonde who used to see a rain cloud and say it may rain . A sun and the warm weather is here. All one has to do is sit down and watch where the fronts are coming from. Check out the wind and one can predict their own weather. Probably just as accurate as our own weathermen. No offense.

I agree.  Probably more accurate.

The weatherman try to act like they know what they are talking about by going out 5-10 days with a forecast.  I don't trust any forecast beyond a day or two at the most.  I just pull up the radar online and see what is going on out in Iowa and Missouri for my next day forecast, if I want to go two days then I look at Nebraska and Kansas, of course you have to look at the movement of the fronts and make your own little adjusts.  I would say this is 75% accurate, unlike the 25% accuracy the weatherman gets.

[taxi1]

I used to get a kick out of the big busted blonde who used to see a rain cloud and say it may rain . A sun and the warm weather is here. All one has to do is sit down and watch where the fronts are coming from. Check out the wind and one can predict their own weather. Probably just as accurate as our own weathermen. No offense.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iight.

Sure their's Buy Ballot's Law that states that when you stand with your back to a geostrophic wind in the Northern Hemisphere the center of low pressure will be to your left and the high pressure to your right. And red sky at night sailor's delight, red sky in morning sailors take warning but would you really want to depend on that?

How would you know the snow you are experiencing is going to change to freezing rain or that a hurricane is coming? Would you really want to go back to such rudimentary forecasting?

[angolajones]

If you want to get better forecasts then have Vegas start covering the spread.   

Jonesy

[taxi1]

I agree.  Probably more accurate.

The weatherman try to act like they know what they are talking about by going out 5-10 days with a forecast.  I don't trust any forecast beyond a day or two at the most.  I just pull up the radar online and see what is going on out in Iowa and Missouri for my next day forecast, if I want to go two days then I look at Nebraska and Kansas, of course you have to look at the movement of the fronts and make your own little adjusts.  I would say this is 75% accurate, unlike the 25% accuracy the weatherman gets.

I guess you're in the wrong field then. 

[crappie66]

I guess you're in the wrong field then. 

I am up here in Chicago, an Operations Manager, doing what I went to school for, supply chain management, distribution, and logistics.

I am pretty confident I am in the right field of work.  I would have to pass on being a weatherman, I just don't see much money involved in that.

[taxi1]

I am up here in Chicago, an Operations Manager, doing what I went to school for, supply chain management, distribution, and logistics.

I am pretty confident I am in the right field of work.  I would have to pass on being a weatherman, I just don't see much money involved in that.

Yeah I'd stay with what you're doing. To be a meteorolgist you'd have to go back to school for several years anyway. 

[musky8it]

Not trying to be a chauvinist male here. But predicting the weather is like trying to figure women out . It can't be done  . Just about the time you think you know, you don't. Their mood, like the weather can change fast....When we do get our cold weather back, I sure hope the snow stays away so long enough to get some thick ice.

Got out yesterday  for the first time this winter at Nyona, was 5" but I didn't try today. As we all know the weather has turned on us again Got a new aqua cam and for what fish I seen, it was cool to watch them nibble at my bait and catch them, but no movment on my spring bobber. Some who are line watchers and say they never miss a bite. They need to get a camera, and I bet they will be amazed.

[spring bobber]

Hopefully the prediction I saw is correct. Supposed to drop to the upper 20's and get even colder from there.

[musky8it]

well, Tuesday we had a high of 69. And now its 32, Thursday mourn. Come on COLD, stay away SNOW......would like to get at least 5" of clear good ice before any snow falls.

[Ice_Fly]

Cold is on it's way!!!  Hopefully it will stay awhile longer this time.

[Carp1]

You guys are funny when there's no ice!!  No fishing to talk about, might as well get a good ol' fashion squabble going over weathermen or should I say meteorologist?   

[taxi1]

Cold is on it's way!!!  Hopefully it will stay awhile longer this time.

I see it getting colder but not substantially. Where are those sub zero blasts we usually get this time of year?

[Ice_Fly]

I see it getting colder but not substantially. Where are those sub zero blasts we usually get this time of year?

Before this time next week, lows will be in the LOW TEENS and down to as low as 11 & 12 F. for overnight temps.  Spose to say cold as far out as it showed. This is for NE INDIANA. I'd say 12, 13 degrees f. is substantial enough for anywhere in IN. I just watched the forcast from the NWS. Come on hard water!!! Don't know bout you, but if it gets down to where they say, I'll be fishing on Hardwater next weekend. No doubt in my mind. Even if it's windy....got some protected coves and channels. They'll be locked up tight by next coming weekend. DON"T WORRY. Unless forcast changes that is..... THE KICKER AT THE END!!!!   lol....

[taxi1]

Sounds good Icefly. I just hope we don't get dumped with snow before it gets a chance to freeze good.

[Ice_Fly]

Sounds good Icefly. I just hope we don't get dumped with snow before it gets a chance to freeze good.

Yea I know.... we'll keep are fingers crossed....


chris