IceShanty.com's Ice Fishing Community
IceShanty Main => General Ice Fishing Chit Chat => Topic started by: hardwater diehard on Aug 03, 2023, 09:51 AM
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https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast
(https://i.postimg.cc/4YcqZqmZ/farmers-almanac-2023-2024.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/4YcqZqmZ)
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Looks like the Midwest will be back in business as normal. Yea!!!
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I don't trust them to get the weather forecast right more than a few hours in advance, so I don't put too much stock in these long term outlooks.
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Gives hope, but that's about it. We'll see how it turns out!
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I have a “Weather Rock”,…it’s a rock on a cord hanging outside the front door.
If it’s hot it’s hot, if it’s cold it’s cold, windy it’s moving, calm it’s not. If it’s wet it’s raining, if it’s white it’s snowing! This thing is NEVER wrong! I think I’ll just go with it! 😜
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I will believe it when i see it.hope to be walking on safe ice here in Michigan.last year was the first year in 30+ years i did not walk on the hardwater.
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I hear that, Doc. I only went out three times, because there wasn't ice thicker than 4 inches within 100 miles of my house.
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I have been following her for several season ...pretty much spot on in my area with her winter forcast.
https://www.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/08/rebeccas-2023-fall-outlook.html?fbclid=IwAR0EWYbQKICWT78KeBbnK-nk_vbqS-GbgXMKdQpgFULEK1OdFpRhZKTJ9Dg
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We can only hope that this is true.
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(https://i.postimg.cc/1ngy78HN/fall-2023.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/1ngy78HN)
https://www.almanac.com/fall-weather-forecast
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2023-us-fall-forecast/1562599
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Hard to get excited about those forecasts anymore. Last 3 years all similar and by forecasters that are usually good and they all were not even close at least in NE Ohio. You could almost bet how the Winter will go, ie warmer than normal and then might get some back end cold, which by then is too late.
Maybe they will be right this time though and that would be awesome! Hope this cooler summer weather in our area sticks around for Fall and Winter.
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looks good on paper lol
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Long range forecasts are meaningless. I don't trust anything farther out than 7 days. If you know when the ice fishing season starts and ends, on average, for the waters you fish, then adjust your thinking and anticipation for the shortest season, and don't plan to get on ice until 2 weeks after the average start date, and plan for it to end 2 weeks before the average end date. If you adjust your thinking this way, you will not have unrealistic expectations for the season, and if you are lucky you will be surprised " to the upside " by a colder than average winter.
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And there is this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/map-predicting-above-average-snowfall-was-created-as-satire-in-2014-fact-check/ar-AA1fa2FE?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=5b5d732008fd468297daf924ef596033&ei=32
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Don Day, of DayWeather, is one of the best, in my opinion, meteorologists around. Very thorough in explaining various elements that effect our weather and why we experience the weather we have. He has a daily podcast on YouTube Monday - Friday. His forecasts focus mainly on Wyoming and the western states but will also show others parts of the nation. He gave a very good explanation yesterday about what the winter of 2023/24 could look like. Not an all-out prediction but showing how various factors could effect our temperatures and precipitation. Here is the link about the winter forecast.
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Didnt get out at all last winter due to lack of ice. Hoping to get out this year...
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they were kinda right about this past winter. they predicted a warmer than normal winter, and it was.
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Didnt get out at all last winter due to lack of ice. Hoping to get out this year...
you and me both. All we can do is hope.
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MORE------https://www.yahoo.com/sports/signs-point-strong-el-ni-154035553.html
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NOAA forecast above average temps here last winter, and aside from a big cold shot right before Xmas they were spot on... it was a garbage season.
Fall was very cold vs average, but winter was crap. I got on the ice maybe 8 days. One of them was an absolute freak day on a backwater in November (my only Nov ice day in the 16 years I've lived here), a few days right around Xmas, and then a few at the beginning of February. Everything was open water most of the winter.
They're calling for a similar winter here this year, so my hopes aren't real high. :-\
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I take what cards are dealt last 2 years I’ve come up about a 1.5 weeks short of normal , but boat was in 5 days later for perch 👍
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I was able to get out on my local lake 7-8 times ...fished long days knowing that each day it may be the last of the season . The middle of the lake never really froze with safe ice ..but I was able to fish the community hole which was great for producing some good catch days/nights . The earlier December ice up had me excited for a long season but in the back of my mind I kinda knew something was amiss ...so fished as often as I could as long as I could . Hoping this year is much better.
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Forecast was Spot-On last year.
Hoping they're right, I CANNOT wait to get back to Kansas again! ;D
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Not the whole kit n caboodle ...day or so out
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=697986735700687&set=a.640691854763509
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(https://i.postimg.cc/MnHs241f/ofm2024.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/MnHs241f)
https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/expect-first-freeze-season-090036795.html
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Pretty good snowfall in the mountains of northwestern/north central Wyoming the past few days.
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MORE---- https://www.yahoo.com/news/el-ni-o-winter-coming-084442094.html
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This is part one ...I believe she does 3 total tweaking them...she has been pretty spot on on her predictions for my area .
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-one.html?fbclid=IwAR2eEwCcaUS6tGIGizoat-n0DNBppcu6UmcSI76cuku8WqhSuHKx-7qmZjw
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Never heard of this before
&t=7s
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Well I’ve never heard that 1 lol
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/ar-AA1hGINt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1c1276feddde49ebb5bb75806bac63cf&ei=7#image=9
https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853
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That's also showing warm and dry here, which is in line with what NOAAs LT models have been showing the past couple months. :'(
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I have been following her for several season ...pretty much spot on in my area with her winter forcast.
https://www.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/08/rebeccas-2023-fall-outlook.html?fbclid=IwAR0EWYbQKICWT78KeBbnK-nk_vbqS-GbgXMKdQpgFULEK1OdFpRhZKTJ9Dg
PART 2
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-two.html?fbclid=IwAR3cAWcSlU_bgT6XGrL8coI7nZD3crKrTqUnnYaKxe7zt1uWAtQIrA3Z5tI
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they were kinda right about this past winter. they predicted a warmer than normal winter, and it was.
Depends on where you were of course. I can't say I've ever seen such a duality as was the Dakota's and Minnesota. The dakota's had one of the craziest winters ever, there wasn't too many records we didn't break. Cold, snow, wind, ice. We had safe fishing ice for a full 5 months. If you were brave, I bet some in North Dakota were on ice from the first week of November, the last week in April. I came within an inch or two of needing an extension on my ice auger. We had a solid 40" of ice on many lakes at one point. By comparison, Minnesota wasn't really even safe even at Christmas time. It kind of was, but it was pretty sketch, and very sloppy. MN had a fairly warm November that never made ice. It wasn't so much the lack of cold though, but one big dump of snow at the worst time. They got plenty of snow after that, but nothing unusual.
I love ice fishing, but I really don't want to be ice fishing 2 weeks from now like I was last year. I swear just 3 weeks ago it was like 98F. I just want to enjoy a little fall for once. It doesn't seem too likely though, yesterday while out duck hunting I couln't break the shore ice by foot, it must have been 1" thick.
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Great reads Diehard.
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Depends on where you were of course. I can't say I've ever seen such a duality as was the Dakota's and Minnesota. The dakota's had one of the craziest winters ever, there wasn't too many records we didn't break. Cold, snow, wind, ice. We had safe fishing ice for a full 5 months. If you were brave, I bet some in North Dakota were on ice from the first week of November, the last week in April. I came within an inch or two of needing an extension on my ice auger. We had a solid 40" of ice on many lakes at one point. By comparison, Minnesota wasn't really even safe even at Christmas time. It kind of was, but it was pretty sketch, and very sloppy. MN had a fairly warm November that never made ice. It wasn't so much the lack of cold though, but one big dump of snow at the worst time. They got plenty of snow after that, but nothing unusual.
I love ice fishing, but I really don't want to be ice fishing 2 weeks from now like I was last year. I swear just 3 weeks ago it was like 98F. I just want to enjoy a little fall for once. It doesn't seem too likely though, yesterday while out duck hunting I couln't break the shore ice by foot, it must have been 1" thick.
Last season, I was out on December 10th, the earliest I can remember fishing in the Twin Cities metro area since I been doing this in 2005. Of course, it was a pretty small lake I was on, not even 200 acres, so it froze up fast.
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Last season, I was out on December 10th, the earliest I can remember fishing in the Twin Cities metro area since I been doing this in 2005. Of course, it was a pretty small lake I was on, not even 200 acres, so it froze up fast.
Try a little west. I grew up in Wright county, and its a warm year if you don't have 4" of ice on most small and medium lakes late November. The big and deep lakes stay open another week or two. It's pretty much expected to be driving on lakes by Christmas. Heck, if you fish Buffalo lake, you drive cars out on 6" of ice! (don't be like those dummies) Somewhere in that 2015-2017 range I remember a year ice fishing Wright county like November 10th, and I don't risk it. I wait a minimum of 4" ice.
By comparison last year, I didn't even feel safe walking out on Christmas, I don't mess around with that slushy nonsense. I don't feel good about 12" of snow on top of 10" of slush/water, on top of 8" of ice. I don't think I've ever seen worse ice condition in that area that time of year. If you were out on the 10th I can only assume you beat the snow, or are way braver than I.
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Here's the latest...... https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/meteorologists-just-released-snowfall-predictions-130000519.html
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The new NOAA projections just dropped this morning... still looking like garbage here :-\
DJF projections
(https://i.postimg.cc/jWVLZQtp/IMG-20231116-074924.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/jWVLZQtp)
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Most of my ice is made when the Polar Vortex works its way down and through my area .. some years that can happen early affording me enough ice to get out and stay out through most of the season ..my disappointing seasons happen on warm years of thinner ice and heavy snowfall ...making it unsafe with slush conditions ..looks like I will be hitting it real hard in February ...AGAIN
https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2023-11-15-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast-united-states
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Another winter predicters take on it ...my head is officially spinning and exploding.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/official-el-ni%C3%B1o-forecast-above-average-snowfall-predicted-from-east-to-west/ar-AA1k3fd3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=ad821cca447448fdb2237a7e070872b2&ei=19
&t=3s
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Every single forecast is different >:( Was on the ice this time last year, 55 degrees today.
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PART 2
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-two.html?fbclid=IwAR3cAWcSlU_bgT6XGrL8coI7nZD3crKrTqUnnYaKxe7zt1uWAtQIrA3Z5tI
PART 3 very promising in my area
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-2023-2024-winter-outlook-part-three.html?fbclid=IwAR1ASwSM0WlTahRasKjZCI40WkQlRT7d24m1oJjFnXz2mL_PkHzPHDS6H9M
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https://soundcloud.com/shacktalk/202324-winter-forecast-with-meteorologist-adam-lorch
https://www.northernnewsnow.com/2023/10/10/first-alert-2023-2024-winter-forecast/?fbclid=IwAR0s6yYJ_8zcmhBbw_KJZThv_Kz8oEJLI5ydd7FOWHV5AD7zcN8sNXoIGgg
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https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2023-11-28-december-temperature-precipitation-outlook
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Huh, so they keep changing the forecast. It's almost like weather can't be accurately predicted past 4-5 days. Imagine that.
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Northern Houghton/Keweenaw county
going to be winging it this year
our local weather forecaster passed away last week [john Dee]
as of 12/1 we only had 12.5'' of snow [that's not much]
day time temps around 40's night time in the 20's
it will cool the water down but making ice will see ::)
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https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/
https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd1045012.html
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I haven't checked any lakes yet, but I bet we will start to see some fisherman in our area, and I bet in Minnesota and ND as well. It was looking good, but now the forecast has warm next week, one day may even hit 50. I'm thinking it won't hurt too much, assuming its only a few day. I doubt any lakes will open back up. Might be able to find some 4" ice on some lakes this weekend, so this is a fairly normal year so far.
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So a lake I iced last year on Nov. 21st, Was ice fishable on Nov. 27th this year. NOT much difference.
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We are weeks behind last year, but that's because last year was record book any way you look at it. On a typical year my area for typical prairie lakes is early December for good safe 4"+ of ice on more than just bays. There's always that one guy who scoots out on the 2" of ice in a bay somewhere though. I wouldn't be surprised if someone didn't try ice fishing that cold snap back around Halloween.
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so far this year 12.5'' lake effect which is low for us
we average 300'' + - so its going to be low amount of snow fall
the good side is it will make good ice with a low amount of slush on top ;D
might even be able to fish at places the DNR don't plow out the parking lots this year
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Is El Nino supposed to be warmer this year?
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Is El Nino supposed to be warmer this year?
It depends on part of the country you live. This was from NOAA: "During strong El Nino events, average winter temperature favors warmer than normal conditions across the northern tier of most of the nation and colder than normal conditions over most of the southern states."
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(https://i.postimg.cc/s1J53g0G/Screenshot-2023-12-14-184500.png) (https://postimg.cc/s1J53g0G)
(https://i.postimg.cc/wy23Y7T6/Screenshot-2023-12-14-184703.png) (https://postimg.cc/wy23Y7T6)
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Still crap here... we've been running 5-10° above normal most of the month so far.
It was 52° today, and supposed to be about the same tomorrow. There's not a single high temp below freezing in the 10 day forecast :-\
It's been quite a few years since we had a completely ice free winter in these parts, but the way it's shaping up so far we might be on the way to another.
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the 10 day does not look good up here
Gale Warning +1 More
Tonight
Showers/Wind Late
--
/40°
37%
W 24 mph
Fri 15
Rain
43°
/34°
94%
WNW 16 mph
Sat 16
AM Rain/Snow Showers
42°
/37°
74%
ESE 11 mph
Sun 17
Rain/Snow
39°
/22°
41%
W 12 mph
Mon 18
Mostly Cloudy
24°
/21°
17%
N 17 mph
Tue 19
Partly Cloudy
35°
/29°
1%
SW 12 mph
Wed 20
Mostly Cloudy
34°
/27°
17%
NNE 9 mph
Thu 21
Cloudy
34°
/29°
6%
ESE 10 mph
Fri 22
Partly Cloudy
37°
/32°
23%
SW 10 mph
Sat 23
Partly Cloudy
40°
/32°
10%
W 11 mph
Sun 24
Rain/Snow Showers
41°
/32°
48%
SW 12 mph
Mon 25
Snow Showers
37°
/29°
40%
NW 13 mph
Tue 26
Mostly Cloudy
37°
/29°
21%
NW 12 mph
Wed 27
Mostly Cloudy
36°
/30°
11%
WNW 11 mph
Thu 28
Partly Cloudy
37°
/29°
10%
WNW 11 mph
>:(
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I can tell you this with 100% CERTAINTY...
...there will be weather.
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I can tell you this with 100% CERTAINTY...
...there will be weather.
Well, that does make you more accurate than the forecast :roflmao:
It was 57 friggin degrees here yesterday afternoon. I did take advantage of it not being windy to go out and shoot some test loads I cooked up over the past few weeks.
(https://i.postimg.cc/w3dbkVM3/IMG-20231215-144612.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/w3dbkVM3)
The 10 day still looks terrible. Got a little dip coming Monday/Tuesday, but nothing near enough to help.
(https://i.postimg.cc/Sn3J0jY1/IMG-20231216-072010.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/Sn3J0jY1)
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Even the most optimistic weather guys I follow are giving up on winter this year for the northeast. This is downright depressing for us ice fishermen...for those of you who still get a consistent freeze, enjoy it while you can
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First winter of retirement, live on a lake in MN. December 16 and it’s raining????? Boooo.
Building a cedar strip canoe in my shop, I may use that before the otter sled. All in all life is good, just need to get normal weather
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The new NOAA projections just dropped... still looks like crap.
January
(https://i.postimg.cc/HrHY4NdN/off14-temp.gif) (https://postimg.cc/HrHY4NdN)
J-F-M
(https://i.postimg.cc/HrBg0sSJ/off01-temp.gif) (https://postimg.cc/HrBg0sSJ)
Absolutely nothing conducive for making ice locally in the 10 day forecasts from any of the major weather players. :-\
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Sweet. That just ruined my day. Winter has been garbage so far.
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It's not looking very promising. Unless some kind of serious cold blast blows in, I'm starting to doubt we see any ice in this neck of the woods this year.
Every time we get a good looking day or two, it ends up blowing up warm before anything gets a chance to skim over.
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Well here in western Pennsylvania we have a pretty short ice season even on a good year. We're lucky to get a month of ice anymore and that's usually mid January to mid February. Not looking good this year, was 60 degrees yesterday and the rest of this week looks warm. We'll get 2 or 3 cold days then a front comes through and it will rain. I jinxed myself by buying a shanty a few seasons ago. We haven't gotten good ice since I bought it.
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Well here in western Pennsylvania we have a pretty short ice season even on a good year. We're lucky to get a month of ice anymore and that's usually mid January to mid February. Not looking good this year, was 60 degrees yesterday and the rest of this week looks warm. We'll get 2 or 3 cold days then a front comes through and it will rain. I jinxed myself by buying a shanty a few seasons ago. We haven't gotten good ice since I bought it.
I'm at about the same latitude as Pittsburgh. It's always been pretty variable year to year here too, but it's definitely trending worse as time goes on. The last really good season around here was 3 or 4 winters ago.
Today is the first time we've been below freezing in about a week. It was 59° Christmas Eve, and 55 the day of. We're about to wrap the calendar year 2023 with no days below zero for the entire year. We only had 3 or 4 last year, and they were all during that freak Xmas cold snap :-\
The local 10 day is finally starting to look better, but still not good enough to make fishable ice. Nighttime lows are ok, but the daytime highs are still above freezing.
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Wish we'd at least get a solid 12-15" noreaster to cool these lakes off. Even that's not looking good.
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I believe the start our winter here in Southern Quebec is the warmest since 2015. Back then, I managed a small carp in open water on December 24th. That spot currently should have 2-3 inches of ice on it. I did find safe ice further North, landed close to 40 bass this week on 7-8 inches of ice on a very small lake 100 miles North of here, and at higher elevation.
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If... big if... the extended forecast TWC/WU currently have out is fairly close to reality, some of the smaller puddles around here may be ready by the 10th-15th.
The highs they're showing are marginal, so it would be really slow building up thickness, and the wind is always a big factor early.
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Some of that really cold air has to spill our way eventually. :blink:
(https://i.postimg.cc/hhH4zF7Y/IMG-4670.png) (https://postimg.cc/hhH4zF7Y)
(https://i.postimg.cc/vcfY5PrZ/IMG-4671.png) (https://postimg.cc/vcfY5PrZ)
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Yeah, it is pretty upsetting to experience this year after year. Ask any ice fisherman if the earth is warming and you will not get a single argument against it. The reasons are still highly debatable I suppose.
When this site was created, they devoted forums to states that had a bonafide ice fishing season. Now just 20 years later, it looks like forums for RI, NJ, WV, MD, IL, IN are not needed anymore. I do feel bad for them, hell I feel bad for myself with the ice fishing season having gone from as long as 4 months in my earlier years to maybe one longer than 2.5 months in the last decade
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Yeah, it is pretty upsetting to experience this year after year. Ask any ice fisherman if the earth is warming and you will not get a single argument against it. The reasons are still highly debatable I suppose.
When this site was created, they devoted forums to states that had a bonafide ice fishing season. Now just 20 years later, it looks like forums for RI, NJ, WV, MD, IL, IN are not needed anymore. I do feel bad for them, hell I feel bad for myself with the ice fishing season having gone from as long as 4 months in my earlier years to maybe one longer than 2.5 months in the last decade
We will eventually Cycle back cold Hopefully in our lifetime.
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Yeah, it is pretty upsetting to experience this year after year. Ask any ice fisherman if the earth is warming and you will not get a single argument against it. The reasons are still highly debatable I suppose.
When this site was created, they devoted forums to states that had a bonafide ice fishing season. Now just 20 years later, it looks like forums for RI, NJ, WV, MD, IL, IN are not needed anymore. I do feel bad for them, hell I feel bad for myself with the ice fishing season having gone from as long as 4 months in my earlier years to maybe one longer than 2.5 months in the last decade
We still get a good one once in a while. 2018/19 or 19/20... I was punching 13-14" of ice, and it was around from the beginning of January clear into early March.
The good winters are just getting farther between than they used to.
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Yeah, it is pretty upsetting to experience this year after year. Ask any ice fisherman if the earth is warming and you will not get a single argument against it. The reasons are still highly debatable I suppose.
When this site was created, they devoted forums to states that had a bonafide ice fishing season. Now just 20 years later, it looks like forums for RI, NJ, WV, MD, IL, IN are not needed anymore. I do feel bad for them, hell I feel bad for myself with the ice fishing season having gone from as long as 4 months in my earlier years to maybe one longer than 2.5 months in the last decade
Most ice guys fish open water as well, and then there are the crowds that will fish open water but won't go out on ice. So people at the Southern edge of the receding ice belt aren't necessarily losing out. Of course, easier to say coming from a Canadian with no worries of not seeing any ice here in my lifetime...
Up here, we had early ice from 2016 to 2019, mid November about 1 hour North from Montreal at elevation, to early December closer to home on smaller waterways. Then again in 2021.
Last year slightly earlier than this year maybe 2 weeks difference, and that was alreay a warmer one. 2015 was the warmest I've logged since I started loggin my outings in 2008.
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our weather in the Keweenaw ::)
Moonset
9:43 am
Thu 28
AM Clouds/PM Sun
40°
/31°
12%
NNW 10 mph
Fri 29
Mostly Sunny
38°
/28°
6%
NNW 10 mph
Sat 30
Mostly Cloudy
35°
/28°
10%
NE 8 mph
Sun 31
AM Snow Showers
30°
/27°
38%
NNE 12 mph
Mon 01
Partly Cloudy
34°
/31°
3%
W 16 mph
Tue 02
Mostly Cloudy
35°
/28°
7%
WNW 12 mph
Wed 03
Cloudy
32°
/24°
23%
NW 11 mph
Thu 04
Cloudy
28°
/23°
15%
NW 12 mph
Fri 05
Partly Cloudy
28°
/25°
13%
W 13 mph
Sat 06
Cloudy
31°
/26°
18%
W 14 mph
Sun 07
Cloudy
31°
/26°
18%
WSW 13 mph
Mon 08
Cloudy
31°
/27°
21%
SW 12 mph
Tue 09
AM Snow Showers
31°
/25°
43%
WNW 13 mph
Wed 10
AM Snow Showers
28°
/23°
46%
NNW 13 mph
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Most ice guys fish open water as well, and then there are the crowds that will fish open water but won't go out on ice. So people at the Southern edge of the receding ice belt aren't necessarily losing out. Of course, easier to say coming from a Canadian with no worries of not seeing any ice here in my lifetime...
Up here, we had early ice from 2016 to 2019, mid November about 1 hour North from Montreal at elevation, to early December closer to home on smaller waterways. Then again in 2021.
Last year slightly earlier than this year maybe 2 weeks difference, and that was alreay a warmer one. 2015 was the warmest I've logged since I started loggin my outings in 2008.
We had a couple really bad ones around then, too. 2014/15, 15/16, somewhere in there. There were one or two in the mid/late 2000s where there wasn't any local ice at all, either.
It's always been a roll of the dice this far south as long as I've been living here, it's just trending toward less good seasons as the years roll on.🤷♂️
A couple years ago started off pretty bad/late, but then it ended up turning into a decent season.
Just have to be ready and willing to hit it whenever the ice is on living on the tail end of the belt, because you never know how long it's gonna stick around. Could be 2 days, could be 2 months :roflmao:
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Newest NOAA 10-14 day projections look a little bit better
10 day
(https://i.postimg.cc/1fNxjrPC/610temp-new.gif) (https://postimg.cc/1fNxjrPC)
14 day
(https://i.postimg.cc/d76gyWm1/814temp-new.gif) (https://postimg.cc/d76gyWm1)
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It's a crazy year for sure. Most of the lakes around me (MN 40 miles west of the twin cities) have opened back up with all the rain we had on Christmas. Most years we are driving out by now.
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I posted this on the PA website. We walked the dogs over by the Susky and she picked this; dandelions blooming on 12/28/23.
(https://i.postimg.cc/xkVpsG7R/IMG-1881.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/xkVpsG7R)
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Checked weather this morning no snow in forecast, look out window a few minutes ago and it's snowing out.
They can't even get same day weather right.
,
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Back from my first outing of 2024, was hoping to find safe ice closer to home. Ran a bunch of spots, only 3 had safe ice, 2 of which were crowded, so I didn't bother.
Was lucky to find 3 solid inches on my 3rd spot, had it to myself. Spud bar was in order, as there were some thinner spots.
(https://freshwaterphil.com/images/spudbar010324.gif)
At least the ducer was able to shoot through the thin ice, managed 27 perch in about 3 hours, nothing big.
(https://freshwaterphil.com/images/flasher010324.gif)
This is the least ice I've seen for early January in this region, since I started ice fishing around 25 years ago, surpassing the previous warmest of January 2016.
By now, most of the spots I couldn't access would have been safe, and the spot i was at has had over 12 inches of ice by this time, and I've even seen it thicker in early November a few years ago.
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Local forecast is showing a good turn mid-month... we'll see how it holds up as next week comes around. If this is close, some local puddles should be fishable by the 15th or so. 🤞
(https://i.postimg.cc/yWZjGvDm/IMG-20240104-060115.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/yWZjGvDm)
(https://i.postimg.cc/phtQMthK/814temp-new.gif) (https://postimg.cc/phtQMthK)
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Quite a few reservoirs in Wyoming with good, solid ice.
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_
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Quite a few reservoirs in Wyoming with good, solid ice.
Enjoy the fishing!!! :thumbsup: :clap: :flex: :bow: :icefish: :tipup:
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Yeah, it is pretty upsetting to experience this year after year. Ask any ice fisherman if the earth is warming and you will not get a single argument against it. The reasons are still highly debatable I suppose.
When this site was created, they devoted forums to states that had a bonafide ice fishing season. Now just 20 years later, it looks like forums for RI, NJ, WV, MD, IL, IN are not needed anymore. I do feel bad for them, hell I feel bad for myself with the ice fishing season having gone from as long as 4 months in my earlier years to maybe one longer than 2.5 months in the last decade
I don't know much about RI or NJ, but being costal, I'm not that surprised. Did MD or IN ever have good ice? I can't say I ever would have thought WV ever had an ice season. It doesn't get that high of elevation either so it can't be like Colorado which is just as warm but still gets ice if you go high enough. Indiana was always hit and miss as far as I can remember. I think the biggest cases can be made in northern Illinois, and Iowa. It definitely seems they don't get ice like they used to.
On a good note, I thought I needed new winter boots. Now I don't need new boots at least for this year.
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Now that I think about it, as much as I love ice fishing, why is it a problem if you live somewhere you don't get ice? Fish bite just as well from a boat.
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At least in the Rockies & residing at 7000’ we can be on ice in an hr. at 11,000’
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I don't know much about RI or NJ, but being costal, I'm not that surprised. Did MD or IN ever have good ice? I can't say I ever would have thought WV ever had an ice season. It doesn't get that high of elevation either so it can't be like Colorado which is just as warm but still gets ice if you go high enough. Indiana was always hit and miss as far as I can remember. I think the biggest cases can be made in northern Illinois, and Iowa. It definitely seems they don't get ice like they used to.
On a good note, I thought I needed new winter boots. Now I don't need new boots at least for this year.
I'm in central IL, right on the IN line, and it just depends year to year... extremely variable seasons. I fish both states, mostly IL for ice, but more in IN from the boat than IL. I've been down here 17 years now... I've seen 18" of ice, and a year or two no ice 🤷♂️
Double digit thickness is more the exception than the rule now... most winters we max out at 8-10" around here lately. We had 13" a few years ago on some local ponds. Last year we had 7-8" in late Dec, then no ice at all in January. It's definitely trending worse as a whole the past 10-ish years, though.
Still looking better next week per NOAA and all the major weather outlets, so still hopeful for mid-month ice.
(https://i.postimg.cc/tZzCQ8zY/610temp-new.gif) (https://postimg.cc/tZzCQ8zY)
(https://i.postimg.cc/vDpSwDcx/814temp-new-1.gif) (https://postimg.cc/vDpSwDcx)
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Keep doing the ice making dance...polar vortex inbound for 1/15!!
https://www.weathernj.com/one-storm-starting-more-storms-detected/#:~:text=This%20should%20shove,at%20a%20time
(https://www.weathernj.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z50_anom-4877200-1.png)
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Single digit nights coming up. Local lake has a mix of open too 3” near the dam. I’m ready!🤪
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Looks like low temps in northern Wyoming will be ranging from minus 5 to minus 18 Thursday through Monday.
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ARCTIC AIR DROPPING IN ON US THURSDAY NIGHT...-31° FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BRRRRR...
(https://i.postimg.cc/yWfCTph4/Screenshot-20240107-185600-KXLF-Weather-3.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/yWfCTph4)
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Local forecast for this weekend into next week keeps looking better every day.
(https://i.postimg.cc/QBrNT02B/IMG-20240109-045734.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/QBrNT02B)
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Absolute reset happening here in NH today. Lake I live on just skimmed last night too. But going to rain HARD tonight. And wind. Might be able to fish way up north this weekend.
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lows in the single didgets to -0-
that will make ice in a hurry
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Other than the pesky dump of snow forecast Friday, I'm still feeling pretty good.
(https://i.postimg.cc/N5vHLF8B/610temp-new-3.gif) (https://postimg.cc/N5vHLF8B)
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Yep! Going below zero here at night after saturday, first good snap of the season. :tipup: This site is really cool. Hit play and watch the cold plunge south. Hope everyone catches some of this freeze. :)
https://zoom.earth/maps/temperature/
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Looking real solid here... we may just skirt the edge of that snow coming, which would be a plus. I'll be doing some scouting Sunday afternoon and hitting it Monday if it looks good.
(https://i.postimg.cc/NLR0pxVJ/IMG-20240111-155618.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/NLR0pxVJ)
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Yes sir. In the 6 to 10 inch snow band here. Hopefully deepfreeze sticks around a little while And some of the bigger water can lock up!
(https://i.postimg.cc/mPPPkbCB/IMG-4718.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/mPPPkbCB)
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Storm is headed right for my area ..14" plus.always happens when it finally gets cold.
(https://i.postimg.cc/w7DCBKgn/IMG-2394.png) (https://postimg.cc/w7DCBKgn)
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Some cold temps finally coming for MN, after 4-7” of snow of course!
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as long as the ice holds up to the 55-65 mph wind gust it should keep the snow off of it
6-12'' with areas up to 24'' of snow and a winter storm warning to boot ::)
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We did NOT skirt the snow... gotten over an inch in the last hour. Huge, wet, half dollar size flakes coming down since about 5am.
(https://i.postimg.cc/Kkd5kmck/IMG-20240112-061317.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/Kkd5kmck)
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were getting another foot or so of snow after the same that already is on the ground temps will plummit after this and nasty wind with neg windchills to boot I'm excited some people are getting out local and work has been cancelled hmm
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BALMY THIS MORNING...
(https://i.postimg.cc/4mh7M2qn/Screenshot-20240112-074300-KXLF-Weather-2.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/4mh7M2qn)
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Raging blizzard just getting going. They predicted power outages. 50 mile an hour gusts. The way the snow is coming down I bet we get more than 10 inches.
(https://i.postimg.cc/TLb359CY/IMG-4722.png) (https://postimg.cc/TLb359CY)
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Been pouring rain a couple hours now, most of the snow has melted off.
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Even the 2 week forecast pasted below is pathetic for late January by Adirondacks standards. This is for a location in the central Adirondacks. The lows used to be -25 or lower for a week straight this time of year when I was a kid, but at least all of the smaller lakes and isolated bays of the bigger lakes will start having safe ice a week from now.
Mon 15
Cloudy
15°
/6°
9%
SW 12 mph
Tue 16
AM Snow Showers
18°
/4°
43%
SW 8 mph
Wed 17
Mostly Cloudy
14°
/8°
8%
SW 10 mph
Thu 18
PM Snow Showers
18°
/9°
35%
WSW 10 mph
Fri 19
Mostly Cloudy
19°
/3°
24%
NW 7 mph
Sat 20
AM Snow Showers
10°
/-1°
32%
NW 10 mph
Sun 21
Mostly Cloudy
16°
/11°
16%
W 10 mph
Mon 22
Mostly Cloudy
25°
/20°
21%
W 9 mph
Tue 23
Mostly Cloudy
32°
/27°
21%
WSW 7 mph
Wed 24
Snow Showers
36°
/33°
46%
SW 7 mph
Thu 25
Rain/Snow
36°
/29°
58%
SW 6 mph
Fri 26
Snow Showers
33°
/24°
57%
W 7 mph
Sat 27
Snow Showers
30°
/19°
50%
WSW 8 mph
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Unfortunately here in Maine we are still waiting on ice. To much Rain & Wind, along with Flooding keeps taking out any ice that we might get :%$#!: :%$#!:
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YOU GUYS NEED SOME OF THIS...
(https://i.postimg.cc/HjyLxD7c/Screenshot-20240113-075051-KXLF-Weather-3.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/HjyLxD7c)
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(https://i.postimg.cc/nC79VqYq/IMG-20240113-091024.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/nC79VqYq)
(https://i.postimg.cc/WDKsJHsz/images.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/WDKsJHsz)
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Its nasty here and the rough stuff has yet to hit. I should be watching the sabres play a home game @ 4, opted not to drive in the city and deal with the mess. Winds ripping right now! 50 MPH easy!
Have a fresh bottle of bourbon and nothing to do all day!
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Its nasty here and the rough stuff has yet to hit. I should be watching the sabres play a home game @ 4, opted not to drive in the city and deal with the mess. Winds ripping right now! 50 MPH easy!
Have a fresh bottle of bourbon and nothing to do all day!
Sounds like a plan !!!!! I miss living out there sometimes. It was only for a short period of time in the late 80's, but Buffalo is a great city if you are not a wimp !!!!! GO BILLS !!!!!
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Visibility GONE! Good storm for sure, not lots of snow. Wind is terrible
Glad I choose not to go the the game.
Having some soup and watching some football!
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you see bills not on till monday, now thanks to our governor
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Now we're getting somewhere... wish the wind would lay down a but, though. The next few days should really make some ice around here.
(https://i.postimg.cc/SjdfQNkb/IMG-20240114-060716.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/SjdfQNkb)
(https://i.postimg.cc/BLVZNK2G/IMG-20240114-063724.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/BLVZNK2G)
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Temps around 20, gonna dip to the low teens today and Monday. The wind has died down, comes and goes in waves.
I have been in my house for 20 years and when we bought I removed the whole exterior front down to the studs. New insulation , thicker ply wood, used some special tape on the doors and windows to cut out drafts. It was howling so bad yesterday I felt the first draft in years, saw the curtain move. Never seen that since the repair.
I can hear what sounds like frozen rain bouncing off the window.
Not planning on going outside unless I have to, no need to try to remove snow now. I'm watching the news and they are broadcasting from the stadium and its clear and sunny--- whhhhhaaaaat!
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High was -2° here today... ice is shaping up quickly locally and tomorrow afternoon will be go time for the first outing of the season.
Looks like we'll be in nice shape around here all week, then back to warm crap next week, so it may be a short IL season.
(https://i.postimg.cc/0b1K5PS0/IMG-20240114-171440.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/0b1K5PS0)
(https://i.postimg.cc/ZCPBC2Ft/814temp-new-3.gif) (https://postimg.cc/ZCPBC2Ft)
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High was -2° here today... ice is shaping up quickly locally and tomorrow afternoon will be go time for the first outing of the season.
Looks like we'll be in nice shape around here all week, then back to warm crap next week, so it may be a short IL season.
(https://i.postimg.cc/0b1K5PS0/IMG-20240114-171440.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/0b1K5PS0)
(https://i.postimg.cc/ZCPBC2Ft/814temp-new-3.gif) (https://postimg.cc/ZCPBC2Ft)
Geez, I'm debating about going out tomorrow as I have MLK Day off from work (corporate 9 to 5'er)...didn't realize this could be my last time out for the season...lol
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Geez, I'm debating about going out tomorrow as I have MLK Day off from work (corporate 9 to 5'er)...didn't realize this could be my last time out for the season...lol
I'm a desk jockey, too. ;D
I took tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday off for ice time. Depending on if things are a train wreck or not when I get back to work Wednesday, I may end up taking Friday off.
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Nobody wants to go more than me BUT!! I am waiting a bit I'll take an exploratory ride either Wed or Thurs should be some fishable ice on a couple small ponds by Thurs or Fri Be cautious everyone spud spud spud
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Last day below 0 in the forecast here. It's looking terrible next week.
(https://i.postimg.cc/9Dfpn7g1/IMG-20240116-061835.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/9Dfpn7g1)
(https://i.postimg.cc/vDbxHd76/IMG-20240116-062418.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/vDbxHd76)
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Minus 36, minus 30, minus 24, minus 28 low temps for the past 4 days. Building plenty of ice in northern Wyoming.
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I'm a desk jockey, too. ;D
I took tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday off for ice time. Depending on if things are a train wreck or not when I get back to work Wednesday, I may end up taking Friday off.
Did you have any luck? Ended up not going out. Might try to get out Sunday before it starts to warm up again here in the Upper Midwest to close out the month. I don't know how long into February the season will go...open water would not surprise me by end of February with how this winter has gone so far.
After getting out four times last season, I figured that was bottom of the barrel, but Mother Nature said "Hold my Beer".
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Did you have any luck? Ended up not going out. Might try to get out Sunday before it starts to warm up again here in the Upper Midwest to close out the month. I don't know how long into February the season will go...open water would not surprise me by end of February with how this winter has gone so far.
After getting out four times last season, I figured that was bottom of the barrel, but Mother Nature said "Hold my Beer".
Monday was pretty dead, only caught one dink largemouth and a gill. Fish were around, just super negative.
I fished a deeper hole in the same pond yesterday. Everything was plastered to the bottom, but the bite was better. It wasn't a hot bite, but steady. I ended up catching about a dozen in 3 hours and lost a handful on the way up from terrible hook setting. My hooksets were absolute trash... missed quite a few, and none of the ones I did catch were really on tight. :blink:
(https://i.postimg.cc/nCQg91KR/IMG-20240116-103634.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/nCQg91KR)
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What will February bring
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2024/01/ive-been-getting-lot-of-questions-and.html?fbclid=IwAR02p-w5zStbtKBYmmYxSXxtnfcrJwYVJ6b4j1ulffZofhtDREBl6oWmL0I
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Thank you for that optimistic outlook!! I've been about to give up on the season but this gives me hope
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I was joking if I can add this ice fishing season as a tax write-off, but I don't think the IRS would be too happy with me. :)
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Our local ice has all burned off, and it won't be coming back anytime in the near future. :-\ I got out 8 days, and that may well have been the season.
(https://i.postimg.cc/yk1w4Zpg/IMG-20240130-070809.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/yk1w4Zpg)
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4-5" is all the ice we have seen this season... I even took my snowdog out a few times... Will be going North to deal with the poor ice situation.
The good news is we are moving out of a solar maximum and into a solar minimum after this year.
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65 freaking degrees in Great Falls MT right now. Its h#$! s@#!
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Currently 42 degrees in the Lower Clark Fork drainage, Montana. The ice is gettin gone quick and it is full blown ramp season here.
Pyro
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It is definitely a head scratcher. We had nearly a 100 degree temperature swing, with lows in the -30s during the cold snap to consistent +50 degree days the last few weeks. Frustrating to say the least...I don't recall ever contemplating taking my boat out in February before.
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Last time I remember it bein like this was 2014-2016, the last El Nino.
They make each winter less fun for hard water than any other.
Pyro
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I started ice fishing in the mid 70s. We always were on Lake Erie ice by January or first week in February. I had no idea how to or have any interest fishing the smaller inland lakes in NY. We never had to because Mother Erie took care of us. That changed in the 90s. The frequency that Erie froze was getting less and less. The headlines all read "Lake Erie will not freeze this year!" Fast forward a few years left our only option was the smaller inland lakes. Quite a learning project compared to fishing Erie. Now, I can't even get out on the smaller inland lakes safely.
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Still nada for making any kind of ice coming up here.
(https://i.postimg.cc/4YGwhPjD/IMG-20240204-062730.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/4YGwhPjD)
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Getting close to the end here too
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Yeah, unless we get an absolute freak cold snap sometime in the next few weeks, it's over until next winter here. :(