Cold Predictions

[jaeger80]

If you sift through the jargon, it sounds like we may have some hope yet... 

Information taken from: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

"Impacts

I feel like it is déjà-vu all over again with a strong stratospheric polar vortex (PV) in December leading to a positive AO and a relatively mild pattern across the Northern Hemisphere as we head into January.  Reminds me most recently of winters 2015/16 and 2016/17.  In 2015/16 possibly the combination of a westerly quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) and super El Nino lead to an anomalously strong, possibly even an all-time record strong PV that I would argue contributed to an overall mild winter.  January was surprisingly cold in the Eastern US given the record strong PV in large part because a cyclone penetrated unusually far north into the central Arctic bringing with it anomalous heat and humidity that triggered a tropospheric negative AO event.  Eventually though in February and especially March the PV became more disrupted and contributed to at least episodic more severe winter weather.

In 2016/17, the PV started off record weak in the fall and at one point the models were predicting one of the earliest major warmings (where the zonal mean zonal wind at 10hPa and 60°N reverses from positive to negative) ever observed in November.  But the major warming never materialized the PV quickly strengthened, coupled with the surface and the AO was positive in January with relatively mild temperatures across the NH.  Again, the PV became more perturbed in February and contributed to more episodic severe winter weather in February and March.

This winter the PV weakened in November heading into December but the PV weakening fell well short of major warming status, despite model forecasts to the contrary.  The PV has since recovered and has been on the stronger side of normal and this has coupled with the surface contributing to a positive AO to at least kick-off January accompanied by a relatively mild pattern across the NH.  In the Eastern US the mild patter will be interrupted briefly by colder temperatures early next week.  I would attribute this interruption in the mild pattern to a relatively minor and short-lived reflective PV disruption.  But once the forcing from the PV disruption abates by late next week, it makes sense to me that Madden Julian Oscillation forcing should dominate North American weather.  MJO is predicted to be in a fairly robust phase five which favors ridging south of the Aleutians troughing in western North America and more ridging in the Eastern US.  However, Canada is predicted to remain cold and storms traversing North America can tap into this reservoir of cold resulting in at least short-term cold air outbreaks. Also I do believe that the models are overly sensitive to tropical forcing and they could adjust colder with time.

But like in 2016 and again 2017 I expect the PV to become more disrupted. Increasing at least episodic severe winter weather.  Our polar vortex model is predicting a weakening of the PV from the very end of the second into the third week of January.  Though I am certain the predicted weakening in the model is overdone, the model at least usually matches the trend in the PV.  Also based on what I see from the ECMWF stratospheric winds a much more defined reflective layer is predicted to form in the stratosphere so if nothing else I would expect more reflective PV disruptions.  So, though January looks to start off relatively mild in the Eastern US or at least seasonable given the cold air from the reflective event next week, I expect an increasing risk of cold weather related to PV disruptions.  The risk for cold weather is probably aided by the warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern North Pacific that favors mid-tropospheric ridging in the region.

Whatever probability of cold weather that I see for the Eastern US, I anticipate lower probabilities for Europe with the possible exception of the Mediterranean region.  Outside of the higher elevations, Europe has seen little winter weather this year.  And with the AO predicted to be positive into the foreseeable future, there is little reason to expect that to change.  Though the GFS is predicting higher probabilities of snowfall across Central and Eastern Europe than I might have expected given the positive AO.  And without a large PV disruption, I have a hard time imagining an extended period of winter weather across Europe for the reminder of the winter.

Admittedly I don’t have some insightful analysis as to why I expect the PV to become more disrupted with time other than to point to other recent winters.  It does seem blocking in the North Atlantic sector would go a long way to disrupting the PV and none is apparent in the short term.  Also, I would say a major warming is not likely this winter given that we had a major warming each of the past two winters.  Three winters in a row is not unprecedented but fairly uncommon."

[Mr. Charlie]

Whoa.

[jaeger80]

Yeah...I'm looking for hope...

[shaved ice]

**censored** !!!!

[jarhead]

Man that was tough reading gave me a headache!!! These up and down winters have been going on for eions.I started ice fishing when I was 16 im now and old 70!!! there were winters were we had ice almost two feet thick 1977 was one of those years weather people called it 2nd coming of the ice ageLOL. then we had some winters where there was little or no safe ice kinda like now it varies and goes in cycles.there no doubt climate is changing it does almost every single day.We will get ice again I just hope im around long enough to get out againLOL

[Drillin-n-Chillin]

We were in Niagara last year in January (not fishing, hockey tournaments) and it was really cold. Falls frozen, river frozen etc.. Only to drive back east to see most of the lakes barely capped except for the usual cold spots in NEPA.

Fingers crossed. It will get cold and stays cold so we have more options one where to go and can be are fishing hard water into March.

[Chris338378]

I don't know what all that means, heck for all I know it could be the combination to Fort Knocks but one thing I do know is I have a major case of ice and cold withdrawal.  At this rate I'm going to take up a collection to get a tanker of liquid nitrogen to freeze up a lake or two.  Anyone want to chip in?   

[jaeger80]

I don't know what all that means, heck for all I know it could be the combination to Fort Knocks but one thing I do know is I have a major case of ice and cold withdrawal.  At this rate I'm going to take up a collection to get a tanker of liquid nitrogen to freeze up a lake or two.  Anyone want to chip in?   

Tell me where to sign.

[jdfoxpro]

The polar vortex is going to weaken and become more egg shaped , around 20 of Jan. . That shape will allow cold air now trapped in the arctic to spill into the eastern part of the mid west and north east and a whole pattern shift will become prevalent , which should make ice very quickly in the north eastern part of the country . On the ice by the last week of the month .

[rlusk3030]

The polar vortex is going to weaken and become more egg shaped , around 20 of Jan. . That shape will allow cold air now trapped in the arctic to spill into the eastern part of the mid west and north east and a whole pattern shift will become prevalent , which should make ice very quickly in the north eastern part of the country . On the ice by the last week of the month .

Sounds like a plan to me. But then how long will it last?

[captain54]

Another tease ice making weather yesterday and last night.....hear comes spring....rollercoaste r winter.

[jdfoxpro]

Sounds like a plan to me. But then how long will it last?

Take it to the bank ! Usually a pattern shift last at lest 2 weeks and could last till March .

[Drillin-n-Chillin]

Looks like cold is coming after the 16th. Next few days between now and then are looking really bad for ice making with rain and warm temps. Let’s hope what we have hoods up and tightened up for the 25th.
These mild winters only make everyone sick, literally and for ice fisherman figuratively.
Here in the Southeast corner of PA the grass is still green. 🤬

[capt.crappie]

Looks like cold is coming after the 16th. Next few days between now and then are looking really bad for ice making with rain and warm temps. Let’s hope what we have hoods up and tightened up for the 25th.
These mild winters only make everyone sick, literally and for ice fisherman figuratively.
Here in the Southeast corner of PA the grass is still green. 🤬

This keeps up i might have to mow again 

[Captn66]

This keeps up i might have to mow again 

I wish i had that problem ... my dogs turned my yard to mud ... complete mud ... I want a hard freeze just so i don't have to wipe their paws after every trip to the yard

[1MOFISH]

This keeps up i might have to mow again 

ouch december 27 2019 had mower out in a short sleeve shirt trying to pick up falls leaves  winter came an gone, came an gone, came, and now going again going,going,gone!!!!!
still dont have the 2020 license yet
GOD BLESS
mo

[treblesandshiners]

me neither mo didnt even get my crap together yet.

[Iceattic]

Doesn't look promising.  I'm going to start jigging in the bathtub!!

[minnook]

ice attic let us know how you do.and which is better the back or near the drain?

[Iceattic]

Lol.

[jaeger80]

If the weather wizards are right (I wont hold my breath), it looks like we'll start making ice Thursday night...  Cross your fingers.

[capt.crappie]

If the weather wizards are right (I wont hold my breath), it looks like we'll start making ice Thursday night...  Cross your fingers.

Ill cross all my fingers 

[bigfoot86]

I like what the future looks like in the forecast.  Unfortunately I might be out for a long time with a back issue that I cannot get rid of.  I been walking with a cane at times and I'm too young for that

[builder]

Not good Bigfoot

[mitcher]

Ill cross my fingers and toes.

[NEZ]

Doesn't look promising.  I'm going to start jigging in the bathtub!!

Hopefully you don't catch any brown trout

[Chris338378]

Starting this Thursday they're calling for lows in the teens which is good but the problem is they're calling for 5 to 8 inches of snow on Saturday during the day and then another 1 to 3 inches of snow Saturday night.  Hopefully we don't get all that snow because it'll mess up the ice making.  If we do get it the best thing to happen is it sinks the ice that's formed and floods the snow. 

[bigfoot86]

Starting this Thursday they're calling for lows in the teens which is good but the problem is they're calling for 5 to 8 inches of snow on Saturday during the day and then another 1 to 3 inches of snow Saturday night.  Hopefully we don't get all that snow because it'll mess up the ice making.  If we do get it the best thing to happen is it sinks the ice that's formed and floods the snow.

Was thinking the same exact thing, kinda hoping not too much ice forms before that snow hits and if it does I hope it's less than a half inch so it sinks that ice.  Actually think further south might be alright because I don't think your goin to get much ice to form before that big storm.

[hard water jim]

I saw that snow forecast and was thinking the same thing. Fortunately most of the lakes and ponds in my area got opened up with all of the warm temps, rain and then the wind finished the ice off. Hopefully the snow doesn't mess up the areas that still have ice. Places that have deteriorated ice and snow on top could make for some very interesting conditions. Stay safe everyone.

[Spider1]

even if a lake is capped over, 5-8" of snow isn't going to hurt much. Especially if there's a wind blowing to clear some off the lake. All it will do is make you use yer Smitty sled!!! Now all ya gotta do is find a lake that still has decent ice on it.