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IceShanty Main => General Ice Fishing Chit Chat => Topic started by: hardwater diehard on Aug 08, 2021, 10:54 AM
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(https://i.postimg.cc/fVBtsXrx/FA2022.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/fVBtsXrx) (https://i.postimg.cc/DWSZKNsT/of2022.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/DWSZKNsT)
https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-forewarns-of-frosty-flip-flop-winter-ahead?utm_source=bibblio_recommendations
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I eyeball the NOAA long range forecasts all year, they update the forecast model once a month. Some years they are close, others are way off, but the one month lead is usually fairly close.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php)
Next update will be next week. It's usually posted on the 16th or 17th each month.
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I always follow the Old Farmers predics....for fun. Neither one is ever right half the time. I've got every year of both going back 21 years, my little collection. ;)
I'll follow the squirrels and how many nuts they are packing away, how active the bees are, how many spiders are out and about, when the geese head north, how wide are the bands on the wooly-bear caterpillar, how many fogs in August, how thick onion skins are, and how many holes there are in my Winter socks. ;D
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I always follow the Old Farmers predics....for fun. Neither one is ever right half the time. I've got every year of both going back 21 years, my little collection. ;)
I'll follow the squirrels and how many nuts they are packing away, how active the bees are, how many spiders are out and about, when the geese head north, how wide are the bands on the wooly-bear caterpillar, how many fogs in August, how thick onion skins are, and how many holes there are in my Winter socks. ;D
Ok so that last thing. I would bet the more holes you have the colder it is going to be. Am I right?
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Ok so that last thing. I would bet the more holes you have the colder it is going to be. Am I right?
Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!!!!! :thumbsup:
(https://i.postimg.cc/k6zHT1H1/chicky-2.gif) (https://postimages.org/)
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This last years prediction ...how did it fair in your area
https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac
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This last years prediction ...how did it fair in your area
https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac
Way off for my area. We were a bit snowier than usual for the season. Most of December was fairly mild, as was most of January, except for a bitter cold shot between Xmas and the New Year. Then it dropped off and February ended up being one of the top 10 coldest on record here.
It flipped from Winter weather to Spring like a switch at the end of February, though. We went from -15° to 55° in less than a week, so the ice melted off in a hurry. I had went out on 11" of pond ice on a Saturday, and the thing was open water before the next weekend. Feb 22 or 23 was my last fishable ice day, and the ponds were open water by the 26th or 27th.
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Well I hope there isn't going to be those rain/sleet/snow weather where all the equipment just gets drenched in water. That was rough last season as I walked out my sled in that weather. I was wet and miserable.
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I’m hoping for a “normal“ winter this year so we can be on the ice mid November! Last year the weather was all over the place, from very cold to unseasonably warm, contrary to what the “expert’s” had to say!
That’s why I’ve learned to rely on my Weather Rock. It’s a rock on a cord hanging outside. If it’s hot, it’s hot. If it’s cold, it’s cold. If it’s not moving, it’s calm. If it’s moving, it’s windy. If it’s raining, it’s wet. If it’s snowing it’s white. It’s NEVER been wrong! ;D
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I’m hoping for a “normal“ winter this year so we can be on the ice mid November! Last year the weather was all over the place, from very cold to unseasonably warm, contrary to what the “expert’s” had to say!
That’s why I’ve learned to rely on my Weather Rock. It’s a rock on a cord hanging outside. If it’s hot, it’s hot. If it’s cold, it’s cold. If it’s not moving, it’s calm. If it’s moving, it’s windy. If it’s raining, it’s wet. If it’s snowing it’s white. It’s NEVER been wrong! ;D
We don't really seem to have "normal" winters around here that often anymore. Most winters the temperature is like a yo-yo, so we end up going back and forth from open water to fishable ice 2-3 times in a season. ???
It used to be a pretty sure bet we'd have ice from mid-January to mid-February, but you never know now. There have been a couple over the past 10 years where we never even got solid ice.
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Same here,first ice forms then rain wipes it away,starts over then get 12" of snow that slows ice formation,gets warm and repeat .i finally get out mid jan and off mid February.rarely get over 6" of ice anymore.i can see myself fishing steelhead thru the winter.more reliable with these crapshoot Michigan winters.
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The predics are pretty generalized for a lot of leeway, IMO. "Cold, with snowy periods"....duh. ;D
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They don't know what's going on 3 days out let alone this January...
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Good read ..little long but she is pretty spot on in general winter predictions for the last several seasons I have been following her . In particular snow storm wise she has told it like it will be . Scroll to the bottom if you dont like the techno jargon.
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2021/09/here-are-some-very-early-thoughts-on.html?fbclid=IwAR3uMkc32JFgDwFMvgjlP3QrBi8BeofLXRIscoUQlUIwWWdo3JR7ITTMT_o
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They don't know what's going on 3 days out let alone this January...
Ya got that right. :thumbsup: Weather predicitin' friend and I have been keeping track all Summer of heavy rain/storms predics here by the local NWS station.....must be minimum of at least 50% chance of moderate rain with storms. NINE times this summer the NWS totally blew it, and we received nothing...that included two flash flood watches, where we didn't even get a drop. o when and where do what.Really pi**in' off the farmers here, since they depend on that as to when and where do what. I have zero confidence in these weather morjits. They couldn't predict a sunrise or sunset if they had to.
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A friend once told me that a study of history showed that the weather forecast would be slightly more accurate if they replaced the weather prediction with "Tomorrow will be pretty much like today"
Wish I could fins the original source on that...
:tipup:
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This last years prediction ...how did it fair in your area
https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac
Not very close, got the dry right, but no cold at all
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my winter forecast - gonna be cold Dec through the end of Feb. Possible occasional snow, rain or mix throughout this time. there will be a warming trend in the northeast toward the end of Feb and into March.
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Our weather here is influenced by Lake Ontario, so weather is very unpredictable
Anything beyond a day can be a reach
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Regardless,
I’m excited for the upcoming season!
Today I tinkered with some ice gear..
Looking forward to it.
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Regardless,
I’m excited for the upcoming season!
Today I tinkered with some ice gear..
Looking forward to it.
I’ve been “tinkering” with ice fishing gear all summer! I can hardly wait for the upcoming season either! 🤪
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I follow several weather channels on YouTube and read into forecasts quite a bit, some are better than others but like everyone says predicting the weather can be tricky. I would enjoy a good ice season this year in Iowa but there isn’t much I can do about. Before long I will be getting the otter down out of the garage rafters and start the season long process of tinkering with it and getting everything just right.
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https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887
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Looking pretty good for the northeast! Bring it on !!!!!!
smitty :tipup:
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It's been running in the 90s here this week, so it certainly doesn't feel like fall yet 🙄 Long term forecasts have been trending a bit warmer of late, which means spotty ice at best for us this winter and no ice at worst if they're correct.
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Don’t want to rub it in or nothing but I’ve had about 6 inches of snow on the ground since last Thursday. I think it’s going to be an interesting winter.
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It's 87° here at the moment... in October :'(
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+27c here in north central saskatchewan a couple days ago :-\
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(https://i.postimg.cc/8FHLnv2h/weather.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/8FHLnv2h)
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My brother was out fishing today (central Pennsylvania). He said the water is still 70 degrees. No bueno.
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NOAA
&t=1s
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Looks good for me :)
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We still haven't even had a frost yet, and nothing below 38° in the 10 day forecast here :'(
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Patience my friend. It will come. But yeah, I'm ready too.
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Got another 3 inches this morning. I can’t remember the last time we’ve had this much snow this early. I’ve had 20 inches come down since sept 23 but it’s been going through warming spells and most of it is melting off. The temps are supposed to really drop next week so I think it will be here for good after that. This could turn out to be an awesome winter but I do hope it goes easy on the moose they really need a break after two hard winters in a row.
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The ice belt has hitched higher up like an old man's waist line in the last 30 years. I don't see more than four to six weeks of hard water around here, and that may be split into a week between now and Christmas, and then the rest around Valentine's Day.
I'm ready to sell off shelters, since I ain't gonna get to use 'em
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The ice belt has hitched higher up like an old man's waist line in the last 30 years. I don't see more than four to six weeks of hard water around here, and that may be split into a week between now and Christmas, and then the rest around Valentine's Day.
I'm ready to sell off shelters, since I ain't gonna get to use 'em
I'm at about the same latitude as you, and we've had the same trend. Fishable ice is getting less and less common here. Last year we had about a week of it right after Xmas, then had a meltoff and open water for a good part of January, then got ice again through most of February before it melted off for good at the end of the month.
We've had a couple years in the past 15 where we never even got ice. :-\ 2 winters ago came real close... had 4 days of walkable ice all season. It's definitely trending toward less ice in general in this area, aside from when we get a big cold shot.
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I just hope we get hit hard with snow, even if that means no ice fishing.
Drought here in Utah is the worst I have ever seen, our lakes look like ponds and its a bit scary
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The one thing I've learned over the years is: you can't count mother nature out, it will be what it will be. :whistle:
IW
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https://hudsonvalleyweather.com/2021-2022-hvw-winter-outlook/?fbclid=IwAR1lM4MQNcH0TPvUagTLQ2Rrm0p9-aNz7nschcrhzIK3eOnUze_KxZTyWcQ
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The ice belt has hitched higher up like an old man's waist line in the last 30 years. I don't see more than four to six weeks of hard water around here, and that may be split into a week between now and Christmas, and then the rest around Valentine's Day.
I'm ready to sell off shelters, since I ain't gonna get to use 'em
I just moved to Lincoln this spring. This is not the post I wanted to read today! :'( Guess I'll be driving north some this winter.
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My area seldom gets fishable ice anymore! Worse every year!! :%$#!:
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Plenty of ice up here Old Sailor, your welcome anytime. If it makes you feel any better we are in the middle of a blizzard and have received 2 foot plus of snow since 9pm last night.
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It's spitting the first few snowflakes of the season here as we speak. Local weathermen, and online are all saying we're going to get a dusting tomorrow night into Sunday morning. The ground isn't frozen, so it won't stick around long.
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I don't trust any weather forecasts out more than 24 hours. And at 48 hours out, I'd give them 50:50 chance on being right...
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I don't trust any weather forecasts out more than 24 hours. And at 48 hours out, I'd give them 50:50 chance on being right...
That was true 20 years ago but they are far better at accurate long range predictions now.
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All I heard was El Nina is here again this year so I am planning on it being closer to last years conditions which were not very good.
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3 day is usually fairly accurate around here. Out past that by much, you never know.
We got a dusting of snow last night, and a bit of it stuck around until sunup this morning. Supposed to get a bit more tonight, but the real snow is tracking north of here.
(https://i.postimg.cc/c6FxChRM/IMG-20211112-192259.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/c6FxChRM)
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https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2021/11/northeast-2021-2022-winter-outlook-part.html?fbclid=IwAR0IV3dP62gRbCcK0cSKGrq_XaSkDj-ZYRl6KipyXS5W0eLUv-gCJd1NeDk
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Woke up this morning to 2 above here at the house and -23 up at the lake. I could probably drag the hardside out next week if I was putting it out this year but Ive got bigger plans.
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Supposed to be below freezing at night the next week or so straight here, but I don't really put much thought into it for ice until late into December around here. Watching it more for deer season, which opens on Friday. Looks like it should be pretty good this year. No rain or sleet in there, at least.
A fishable freeze up before Xmas would be a once in a century fluke in my neck of the woods.
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Been in uppers 20's to around 32* at nite here for the last week. Same for this week, say the weather morjits.
Might actually be making ice soon if this keeps up.
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Over 60 here yesterday and more of the same today. Hey AK can you send some of that weather down here please????
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Sure no problem. I turned the fan off a few winters ago because our winters were sucking pretty bad so I wanted to keep what I had. After last winter and the winter before that I thing I can afford to share a little. Drifter is going to have to catch up I don’t think he’s even seen a negative (Fahrenheit) temp yet this year. Kind of counting on that ice road.😉
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-36 up at the lake right now with a light band of Aurora overhead. I’m sitting right around -10 here at the house. For those of you who want to see some ice google lake Louise lodge and click on weather and you will be able to see the webcam and weather gauge. Hey Missoula you sure you still want some of this?