LAST YEARS FORECAST FROM ICEGEEK

[theozon]

 Re: El Nino Winter
« Reply #6 on: Jan 13, 2005, 02:47 PM » 

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I talked to my friend, he has access to all sorts of noaa data.  He said the way it looks right now, the atmosphere is stabilizing and more seasonal temps will be with us for the next couple of weeks.  He said by mid-february, some models are predicting an arctic outbreak of really cold air, but the long range stuff doesn't have a very high confidence factor so who knows. He reiterated that part of the problem is the way the jet-stream is set up, and storms sort of ride along the jet.  Depending on how it sets up it can either bring up cold air or in the case of this year, warm moist tropical air is being pulled in our direction (western NY area)I think by the end of the month most of the lakes will be fishable, although, the days are getting longer which means a longer period of time when the temps are higher,  and higher average daily temps as we head into February.  (Not too much of a problem if we have ICE, but at this point we are still trying to get the ice made).  Hopefully this colder weather will help put some ice on the lakes.  I'm not convinced that the next week is really going to make all of the lakes fishable, It's cold air, but it's actually only seasonal air. Lakes that are small and shallow should be no problem.  This warm rain certainly hasn't helped our cause and the runoff tends to mix up the lakes as well.  Only time will tell....... 

[IceGeek]

I talk to him all the time, in fact I spoke with him two days ago at the vending machine....the zonal pattern we are in is killing us right now.  Basically the jet is running straight across the US and it keeps the arctic cold from breaking out into the lower 48.....I'll ask him what he forsees in the near future next chance  I get

[AugustWest]

Do you have Doplar Radar at your house?

[IceGeek]

no, I work with a guy who does atmospheric and climatology physics....he's pretty knowledgable about these kinds of things and has even helped write some of the computational techniques used in long range forcasting, plus his research focuses on all sort of climate related phenomenon....good guy to know

[coldbum]

Not to bash anyones friend etc, but meteorology is a quack of a science..
those people have no clue what the weather is going to do from day to day...
you can look at 4 diff weather sites and they will all be different.

my preferred method of weather forecasting is relatively simple

I stick my head out the window and see whats going on... it has been way more accurate than any weatherman

[theozon]

Not to bash anyones friend etc, but meteorology is a quack of a science..
those people have no clue what the weather is going to do from day to day...
you can look at 4 diff weather sites and they will all be different.

my preferred method of weather forecasting is relatively simple

I stick my head out the window and see whats going on... it has been way more accurate than any weatherman

YEA YEA WE ALL HEARD THE SAYING "YA DON'T NEED A WEATHER MAN TO KNOW WHICH WAY THE WIND BLOWS" BUT I THINK THE ICEGEEKS REPORT FOR LAST YEAR WAS DEAD ON. JUST HOPING HE WILL COME UP WITH A SIMMILAR REPORT THIS YEAR. PATTERN SEEMS TO BE VERY MUCH ALIKE.

[IceGeek]

coldbum,
  the reason weather forcasting is so difficult is because of how complex it is. The fact that they even get it correct a percentage of the time is practically a miracle when you factor everything together.  YOu have a zillion air molecules that all want to do certain things and to be able to take all of them as a group collectively and figure out which way they are going to move "aka which way the wind blows" is pretty impressive if you actually know what's going on behind the scenes.

[archbishop]

i like our weather men, chance of rain, chance of snow, partly sunny and partly cloudy

[theozon]

GEEK I THINK IT'S TIME TO HEAD TO THE VENDING MACHINE FOR A SNACK.

[coldbum]

coldbum,
  the reason weather forcasting is so difficult is because of how complex it is. The fact that they even get it correct a percentage of the time is practically a miracle when you factor everything together.  YOu have a zillion air molecules that all want to do certain things and to be able to take all of them as a group collectively and figure out which way they are going to move "aka which way the wind blows" is pretty impressive if you actually know what's going on behind the scenes.

I am well aware of the complexities of meteorology. I have a degree in Natural Resources Management and Biological Science. I took a couple of meteorolgy classes in college *many moons ago*

I do not deny the science and hardwork that goes into forecasting weather, however I will stand by my original post! It is much easier and much more accurate to just look out the window..

[Hijinks]

I agree with you coldbum. I think everyone's just getting a little pent-up with this weather we're having now. Trying to come up with a logical solution, and keep everyone's hopes up that by the end of this month we'll be on solid ice. I watch the weather on the news, and keep tabs online. We all know when the weather is going to be good for making ice. Common sense.
I don't trust weather forecastes more than 72 hours out. If that

[JerryofWNY]

I just wish we had a foerecaster who liked to icefish. The reports are bad enough, but then to have them all giddy because of these unseasonably high temps is like pouring salt on the wound.

[IceGeek]

Colbum,
  Not trying to start a battle or anything...I agree it's easier to look out the window for current conditions.  Maybe scott should hire a meteorologist just for this site!

[coldbum]

No battle here mate ( just opinion)

keep up the great posts Icegeek

[archbishop]

Colbum,
Maybe scott should hire a meteorologist just for this site!

he has one at the top of the page

i think we can all agree forecasts are a good starting point, if they say temps in the 50's for a week straight then the ice isnt gonna be good, and if they say temps are gonna drop into the 20's for the weekend, then we have something to look foreward too, like this past week and this weekend, come on 20's.

alma (hopefully) sunday, you in geek?

[IceGeek]

Arch,
 I've got a stag party to go to saturday night...no clue how late I'll be out.  I can't say for sure, but let me know if you are headed there and I may meet you out depending on the hangover situation

[archbishop]

Arch,
 I've got a stag party to go to saturday night...no clue how late I'll be out.  I can't say for sure, but let me know if you are headed there and I may meet you out depending on the hangover situation

ill let you know, im gonna get the forecast the old fashion way, im gonna drive to the lake and check the ice if its good im going sunday, i think saturday will be a little shakey, even on alma

fishingking, thats what i do as well, looking at the radar and using best guess judgement? i use the forecast as a guide for a guestamation on how to plan?

[AugustWest]

no, I work with a guy who does atmospheric and climatology physics....he's pretty knowledgable about these kinds of things and has even helped write some of the computational techniques used in long range forcasting, plus his research focuses on all sort of climate related phenomenon....good guy to know

For Sure

[9fingers]

GLOBAL WARMING!!!!

You NYer's wouldn't willing to conceed a few points to the Mainers now would you?  Not enough ice yet?  Fishing season being shortened and all?    Naw, I thought not.

I think at least in my case that the lack of ice doesn't diminish the urge to ice fish. It just makes me fish harder once the season "settles" in. NY is not conceding any points to anybody. Once the ice gets good, we'll get deep in the mix. So, take advantage of what you have Maine and don't cry when we knock you outta da box!