If there isn't ANY black ice beneath it, I'd stay off.
If you decide to try, make sure to wear a PFD and let people know where you are going, so when they see you on the evening news they can claim that "I know that guy!"....
I also agree with the "cloudy day" scenario as well, as I've been on ponds that had a frozen snow layer (on top of black ice) and you could "see" the top layer melting as the day wore on. Actually, you could hear it as well, as the residual air pockets would "bubble and pop" as they melted.
Then there's the residual puddle that will develop as more and more snow melts on the surface.
Just be safe and don't push your luck!