Which to believe: El Nino or Farmers' Almanac?

[djlangen]

I've been keeping an eye on some weather predictions for the upcoming winter. So far I've heard two conflicting reports: 1) The Farmers' Almanac says that the upper Midwest will experience frigid temps and heavy snowfall; 2) Conversely, scientists are predicting a mild winter (similar to the one in 1997-1998) due to a strong El Nino effect (http://www.vox.com/2015/8/17/9164499/el-nino-2015).

I'm hoping that the Farmers' Almanac is right! Colder temps=more ice fishing=more fish in the freezer

[Rebelss]

And the Old Farmers's Almanac shows a different prediction. I have both of them.
Wait 'til the El Nino blows the wildly popular Polar Vortex into the Midwest. 
Probably have better luck checking the stripes on the woolly bear or when the tree rats start piling in the nuts. 

[Spider1]

here in the NE we usually have a snowy winter with some nasty ice storms mixed in during el-nino winters. I'm kinda hoping the polar vortex kicks el-nino's butt and sends it south of Virginia   but like the rebel said, we shall see.

[Thearcher1340]

My vote for farmers almanac

[TeamTwoSticks]

I believe that we will have another year similar to years past. The Great Lakes are still below their average temperatures for this time of the year. So hopefully they will be able to fight off El Nino enough to have another good season here in the midwest.

http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=m&yr=0

[papadarv]

My Red Lake Indian friend says its going to be a COLD Minnesota winter. White man has big heapin wood pile.

[muskiewrangler]

After taking a Weather & Climate class last semester I want to say El Nino... but the ice fisherman in me wants to believe the Farmer's Almanac.   

[buddlakemusky]

hope it ain't like the winter of 2011-2012, first trip jan. 3 last trip march 7, 80's all the next week before st. patty's, fished in a boat before the end of march

[muskiewrangler]

hope it ain't like the winter of 2011-2012, first trip jan. 3 last trip march 7, 80's all the next week before st. patty's, fished in a boat before the end of march

The year ALL ice fishermen tend to forget...

[Chris338378]

My vote is for the Farmer's Almanac because it's prediction for my neck of the woods has been right on the money for the past four years.  I'm hoping it hold true again. 

[Idahogator]

Copied from Wunderground Weather, by Steve Gregory.


EL NIÑO INTENSIFIES - AGAIN!

SSTA’s in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region have surged back up to near +2.2˚C as atmospheric variables associated with El Niño have increased to the highest levels on record. There has also been an uptick in low level westerly wind anomalies near the Dateline. (PARTIALLY related to the strong and persistent circulation around Hurricane KILO) and this ‘bump up’ in westerly wind components will likely send the SSTA to +2.3˚ by the weekend. With these increases in both SST anomalies and key atmospheric variables – the chances that the current Event will become a ‘Super El Niño' has risen to 60%. A WILD winter weather pattern is a virtual certainty.


SSTA = Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

[Rebelss]

The Old Farmers's Almanac and the Farmers Almanac, two different publications, vary a bit in their predics...shown respectively. I predict cold followed by snow. 

[holehopper]

I've got squirrels that are already burying acorns in the yard.  That tells me it might very well be a cold and snowy one this year. 

[muskiewrangler]

The Old Farmers's Almanac and the Farmers Almanac, two different publications, vary a bit in their predics...shown respectively. I predict cold followed by snow. 

At least it still shows cold for my area and that's all that I need 

[Chris338378]

Yesterday I saw two decent sized flocks of geese flying south at my house, another sign for an early winter.  The more signs like these I see the more I think the Farmer's Almanac is going to be right on the money, severely cold and snowy winter.

[icewagon]

All of September will be above normal temp maybe into October . Most of the fall will be on the warm side till early Nov. with a early snow then back to warm until the first of the year. As far as the almanac goes Penn State 's Weather World did a long look at the farmers almanac and found it to be only 16 % accurate .

[Bucket Brigade]

After a long, hot and dry summer, I am hoping for a good winter.  One that is cold enough to make early ice and stay that way.  I also hope that we get adequate snow fall in the high country to keep the next summer's fires in check!  Tired of all the smoke!!!!

[Chris338378]

All of September will be above normal temp maybe into October . Most of the fall will be on the warm side till early Nov. with a early snow then back to warm until the first of the year. As far as the almanac goes Penn State 's Weather World did a long look at the farmers almanac and found it to be only 16 % accurate .

I don't think that'll happen and would like to see what they say about how accurate the weather people are.  The last four years the Farmer's Almanac was right on the money for my area and I think it will be again.

[Idahogator]

This is a new planet, we don’t have a previous event like this.


             2015 El Nino Could Be One of Strongest Since the 1950s.

                  Discovery

[Rebelss]

And the Weather Morjits (aka meterologists ) just put a big rip onto the Old Farmer's Almanac predictions.....does that mean the Farmers Almanac is wrong, too, or are they unaware there are TWO "Farmers" almanacs.... I actually saw a THIRD one today....The Harris Old Farmers Almanac"... with another different forecast. 


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/17/meteorologists-smartly-rip-old-farmers-almanac-forecast-for-cold-winter-in-the-east/

[Chris338378]

I personally don't believe much of what the weather people say, hell the ones on my local news couldn't tell you yesterday's weather today and get it right.  Then there's the government "experts", yeah there's a real credible bunch, these are the same bunch of IDIOTs who had the bright idea of Common Core education curriculum which is insane.  If you're bored and want to drive yourself insane try doing some of their math problems, stupidity in its highest form.  Sorry but I'll stick to the old math and old ways, read the Farmer's Almanac to see what they say, then look outside and go out to see what the weather is which works far better than any government paid expert's advice.  Funny thing I've learned over the years is most times when you add expert to someone's title it usually means over educated idiot.

[Spider1]

either way, they are all just guessing. Doesn't matter which source you use, they are using their own formulas to come to a somewhat educated guess. What it comes down to is, there will be winter with some winter like weather in varying degrees throughout the season ending in spring. Be prepared for whatever old man winter throws and we'll make it through. I just hope the old bugger throws lots of cold with just enough snow to make it fun for the kids

[Chris338378]

I agree and enough snow to making dragging the deer easier.  One thing is for sure ready or not it's coming, hopefully a lot sooner than later.

[Rebelss]

We will most certainly need to learn to sing this song. 

http://www.kaaltv.com/article/stories/S3897546.shtml?cat=10151

[Idahogator]

Want an explanation ?    Go read the link "Discovery" at reply # 18 .     



                                   

[icewagon]

I wonder if the government idiots ,wouldn't have given several days notice prolly a week notice of incoming Hurricane Sandy , or Andrew or Katrina or the Super Storm in 1993 what the death toll would have been using the old ways ?

[russelln114]

What I think is funny is that the weatherman on tv will spend 5 minutes telling me whats happening right now and then spends 2 minutes telling me what he thinks will happen for the next 10 days. He then says that there is a slight chance it might rain in a FEW SPOTS but then fails to tell me where the few spots might be. Heck last year he predicted 1"-24"s of snow could fall overnight and low and behold we got none.  Weather forecasting is the only job you can be 100% wrong and still get paid for it

[Rebelss]

The truth behind El Nino......... 

[Idahogator]

That's the best one yet, Reb !   

Suspicions confirmed .     

[icewagon]

I don't think that'll happen and would like to see what they say about how accurate the weather people are.  The last four years the Farmer's Almanac was right on the money for my area and I think it will be again.

Here we are at the mid point of Sept. in central PA and it has been way above normal (like I said) except one day that was a bit below normal . The rest of the month will be very warm and I will extend the Oct. prediction to be very warm at least the first 3 weeks, before a slight cool down end of month !