The Coming Ice Age

[jbritch]

A couple of months ago there was some conversation here about "global warming" and I posited the idea that we had entered into another mini-ice age based on a Jim Lorentz (the man who coined the phrase "the butterfly effect") seminar I had attended at Lyndon State College (our weather school).  There was even a middle school science teacher who responded defending his teaching our kids that they need to modify their consumption habits to rectify the mess their parents have made of the planet; I was quite critical of him and felt bad (momentarily) for my snarkiness.  I've included another link supporting my idea that just surfaced today:

  http://www.newsmax.com/World/GlobalTalk/earth-facing-ice-age/2015/07/11/id/654572/

Get your auger extension now while supplies last!  (And, yes, I know that Time cover is from 1973)

[BomoBrown]

Hello,

I had read a similar article. I think it is important to note the possibility that the sun might cool off over the next 40 years.

It is also important to note that the perdiction has the sun returning to its normal strength. Green house gases will still be in our atmosphere and we might find we have blown it for our kids and grand kids. The mini brief cool down might be the final blow in the green house gas saga as it allows us to go further down the rabbit hole before we have to pay the tab.

I did almost post the article. It is interesting info. I just do not see it negating the long term effects of global warming.

[Lavman]

Interesting stuff. The clip narrated by Leonard Nemoy was a real blast from the past. Love how they made it seem so ominous, like it was impending arctic doom.....

[Light liner]

http://www.realsceptic.com/2013/10/12/roy-spencer-uses-fake-time-magazine-cover/

[thefishingweatherman]

Hey guys,

While the past two winters have been colder than normal here in the Northeast, everywhere else was above normal. Last year was the warmest year on record globally, ever, and this year is on track to beat it... The thermometers don't lie.

I happened to go to Lyndon State College for meteorology (hence my handle!) and you won't find anyone there who doubts global warming is fact. For good reason. We got lucky these past two seasons, with Champ frozen over from end to end. With a potential record el-nino setting in this winter, I predict two things for THIS winter... 1) flooding in California, and 2) warmer weather here than the past two winters. I don't expect to be able to walk out to Juniper Island from Burlington this winter, that's for sure!

[Lavman]

TFW: Your post actually made me feel a pang of happiness and hope that my wood pile will get me through this year (ran short in March! Had to buy a cord! This year I padded the pile in anticipation of another winter like last so I should be fine). We have found some bee hives close to the ground this year as well so I think that bolsters your prediction 

So warmer is the prediction, how about snow amounts? Last year we had a lot of snow and I built a Smitty Sled to lug my gear wearing snowshoes. Usually I use my 4 wheeler to shuttle my schunk around. I want to build a custom sledge to pull behind the ATV. So my question for you is: Should I build the sledge or will there be so much snow my ATV will sit out another ice season?

NOTE: All in good fun here 

[thefishingweatherman]

Snow is tougher to call. If it warms only a little over last year, we could end up with the storm track being closer to us than last winter. That would mean more snow. However, 97-98 had a very strong el nino, and we all remember the big ice storm that happened. If I had to guess, we will end up with below normal snow, and a lot more rain and mixed precipitation. Who knows, maybe my skis will continue to gather dust this season!

[jbritch]

Interesting fodder...We've all heard the recent buzz about the coming El Nino...What follows is cut and pasted [except that in brackets]:

Created on 7th June 2015, this is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) forecast for Winter 2015/16.  [Notice the dark blue off our northeastern shore.]



This means that the north-west of America and Canada as well as Alaska, tends to have fairly mild winters. On the other hand, central, northern and eastern parts of the State's tends to get very cold moving out of Canada within the trough - This can bring brutal cold to the east and north of America but also a lot of snow.

In terms of what's going on in the Atlantic Ocean, we have a generally quite cold North Atlantic Ocean this year - Infact, the Atlantic is probably colder than it's been at any time since the early 1990's or mid to late 1980's.

We can [also] see that we're currently in a "weakening" part of the solar cycle as we leave solar maximum and move into solar minimum - Which is expected around 2019.



So putting everything together that we've discussed here, our preliminary Winter 2015/16 outlook for the United States suggests that another cold winter is very probable for America this year.

[Just the facts, ma'am, just the facts...I'm getting my auger extension.]

[Chris338378]

I'm hoping for another long cold winter for me here in Pennsylvania.  I think we're going to get it because my apple tree is loaded with apples, the apples are already turning red, seeing very few robins, saw three chickadees already, and saw four of the all white with black antennas caterpillars. 

[thefishingweatherman]

I would hedge your bets jbritch, the odds of it being cold enough for Champlain to freeze over entirely are slim after it having done so two years in a row. I will bet money on those odds alone, not even having a background in meteorology.

For what it's worth, el-nino makes it warmer than normal here. The numbers demonstrate that distinctly.

[jbritch]

Did you overlook "On the other hand, central, northern and eastern parts of the State's tends to get very cold moving out of Canada within the trough - This can bring brutal cold to the east and north of America but also a lot of snow."?  They were talking about the El Nino.  Kind of hard to argue with the numbers illustrated in those graphs...

[thefishingweatherman]

I didn't overlook that, it's just that random graphs with hard to read labels, hand-drawn overlays done in MS Paint, from mysterious sources, don't really sway my opinion much. If you like those sorts of things though, you'll love this "proof":

Anyways, laughs aside, the sunspot cycle does influence the globes temperature, but I don't see how your graph there has much to do with what will happen this winter. Sea surface temps in the eastern Pacific have a much stronger and more immediate influence on US weather.

Here is the 3 month temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, some folks who know what they're talking about:

While this forecast only gets us into the fall, you can see they are calling for above normal temps here. This alone would mean ice will start to form later than normal, given the amount of heat the lake will still be holding into winter. The same sort of pattern is likely to hold through the winter. So, while I would like to think I'll be able to skate from Burlington to New York again this year, it ain't looking good, bub.

Then there's this little bit of news: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3080

That's right, we just had the hottest month on record globally, ever... Incidentally, last winter the Northeast US region was the ONLY region of the planet to have well below normal temperatures, and last year on the whole was still the warmest year on record. This year is shaping up to be even warmer, globally. What do you think the odds are that we will have the same ice pack here this winter? Sell your stock in Frabill now...

[thefishingweatherman]

Found this from the Climate Prediction Center. Shows average winter temps in relation to normal for El-Nino years. Looking pretty toasty there in the Northeast.

[jbritch]

http://news.yahoo.com/super-cold-slew-snow-old-farmers-almanac-forecast-155616699.html

[jbritch]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-surprisingly-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/

[flagfishon]

I hope it's cold.